The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question
Expected Council Action
On 18 November, the Security Council expects to hold an open briefing on the Middle East. A senior UN official is the anticipated briefer. One of the signature events of the UK’s presidency, the meeting will be chaired by UK Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs David Lammy. It appears that the UK intends to focus the meeting on securing longer term solutions to the conflict in the Middle East region.
The Council also expects to hold its monthly meeting on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (MEPQ). Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland is expected to brief.
Council members may convene additional meetings during the month and evaluate whether further Council action is required.
Key Recent Developments
Israeli ground operations and heavy bombardment continue to be reported across the Gaza Strip, alongside fighting and rocket fire by Palestinian armed groups. The Security Council’s resolutions on the war in Gaza (resolutions 2712, 2720, 2728, and 2735) remain unimplemented, as do the provisional measures ordered by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the context of South Africa’s proceedings against Israel concerning possible violations in the Gaza Strip of obligations under the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. (For background on the war, see the brief on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” in our October Monthly Forecast.)
Since 5 October, Israel has been carrying out a military offensive in the north of the Gaza Strip, progressively putting under siege the Jabalia refugee camp and nearby areas, where Israel says that Hamas has attempted to rebuild its capabilities. Senior UN officials have expressed alarm about the dire impact of Israel’s offensive on the Palestinian population. In a 25 October statement, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said that, in the north of Gaza, the Israeli military is “subjecting an entire population to bombing, siege and risk of starvation”. Citing the Israeli army’s orders directed at “hundreds of thousands” of people to leave the area, Türk warned that Israel’s “policies and practices in northern Gaza risk emptying the area of all Palestinians” and “could amount to atrocity crimes, including potentially extending to crimes against humanity”. On 26 October, Acting Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Joyce Msuya said that hospitals have been hit, health workers detained, and first responders “prevented from saving people from under the rubble”. In a 27 October statement expressing the Secretary-General’s shock at the situation, Spokesperson for the Secretary-General Stéphane Dujarric noted that repeated efforts to deliver essential humanitarian supplies “continue to be denied by the Israeli authorities, with few exceptions, putting countless lives in peril”. Aside from “limited missions, almost no aid operations have been permitted” into northern Gaza, according to information provided by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) cited by Dujarric at a 31 October press briefing.
The deteriorating situation in northern Gaza also led to the postponement of the UN vaccination campaign for variant poliovirus type 2 (polio) in that area. On 29 October, OCHA said that after “sustained negotiations”, agreement was reached with the parties to undertake the vaccination in the Gaza governorate between 2 and 4 November.
Israel’s offensive in northern Gaza is taking place against the backdrop of widespread destruction, including of critical infrastructure, in the rest of the Gaza Strip and abysmal humanitarian conditions. Figures provided by Palestinian officials in Gaza cited by OCHA indicate that, as at 29 October, at least 43,061 Palestinians had been killed during Israel’s military campaign, while an estimated 10,000 remain under the rubble. Nearly the entire population of Gaza has been displaced multiple times. A 17 October Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report found that the risk of famine persists across the Gaza Strip, with nearly 133,000 people facing catastrophic food insecurity.
According to Wennesland’s 29 October Security Council briefing, 101 hostages remain captive in Gaza in unbearable conditions and have been denied visits by the International Committee of the Red Cross. Figures from Israeli officials cited by OCHA, indicate that over 1,565 Israelis and foreign nationals have been killed between 7 October 2023 and 29 October, the majority during the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks in Israel.
On 16 October, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar. This followed the 31 July assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which has been widely attributed to Israel. While some analysts indicated that this could have marked a turning point for the prospects for a ceasefire, in a statement announcing Sinwar’s death, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly said that the war was “not over yet”. A senior Hamas official said that Sinwar’s death would only increase the “strength and solidarity of [the] movement”.
On 27 October, indirect talks between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire and the release of the hostages resumed in Qatar after a prolonged lull. On the same day, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi proposedan initial two-day ceasefire in Gaza to exchange four hostages and some Palestinian prisoners as a first step towards a permanent ceasefire. On 29 October, a senior Hamas official reportedly said that Hamas will only accept a deal for a permanent ceasefire, the return of displaced Palestinians, and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
On 28 October, the Israeli Knesset (parliament) passed into law two bills on the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). One piece of legislation is aimed at preventing the agency from “operating in Israel”. The other is expected to affect UNRWA’s diplomatic status and prevent Israeli agencies or representatives from having any contact with UNRWA. Key international interlocutors—including the UN and humanitarian and human rights organisations—have expressed deep concern at these measures for their anticipated severe impact on UNRWA’s capacity to function in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem, as well as for stability in the region. The legislation is set to go into effect in 90 days.
UNRWA is mandated by the General Assembly to provide assistance to Palestine refugees, which the agency defines as persons whose place of residence was “Palestine during the period 1 June 1946 to 15 May 1948, and who lost both home and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948 War”. The descendants of male Palestine refugees, including legally adopted children, are also eligible for registration. Israel’s relations with UNRWA, historically strained, worsened significantly since the start of the war between Hamas and Israel. Israeli officials have repeatedly called for the agency’s dissolution and for its functions to be handed over to other UN agencies. Legislators drafting the bills cited involvement of some UNRWA staff in the 7 October 2023 attacks, as well as the alleged affiliation of certain staff members with Palestinian armed groups. In January, several states announced the suspension of funding to UNRWA following allegations that twelve employees were involved in the attacks. UNRWA dismissed the staff concerned and, at the request of the UN Secretary-General, the Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS) launched an investigation into the allegations. On 5 August, the UN announced the results of the investigation, which found that nine UNRWA employees “may have been involved” in the attacks. Separately from the OIOS investigation, an independent review evaluated UNRWA’s adherence to neutrality principles. The review’s report, issued on 20 April, noted that while “neutrality-related issues persist”, UNRWA possesses “a significant number of mechanisms and procedures to ensure compliance with the humanitarian principles” and “a more developed approach to neutrality” than similar entities.
UNRWA has said that Israel has not substantiated any broader allegations against the agency and that measures taken against UNRWA are part of an ongoing effort to dismantle it in order to “eliminate UNRWA’s role in protecting the rights of Palestine Refugees and acting as a witness to their continuing plight”. Nearly all countries that had paused their contributions to UNRWA have resumed their support, except for the US, where funds remain frozen until at least March 2025.
On 30 October, the members of the Security Council issued a press statement on UNRWA expressing grave concern over the legislation, emphasising UNRWA’s “vital role” and affirming that “no organization can replace or substitute UNRWA’s capacity and mandate”. Members urged Israel to respect UNRWA’s privileges and immunities and allow unhindered humanitarian assistance throughout Gaza. The statement highlighted the findings of the independent review, welcomed UNRWA’s commitment to implementing its recommendations, and called for an accelerated implementation process. Members “took note of the measures taken to terminate the employment of nine UNRWA staff” and stressed the “importance to take timely measures” to address credible allegations.
The situation in the West Bank remains volatile with violence continuing at alarming levels, including in the context of IDF operations against Palestinian armed groups, settler violence, and attacks by Palestinians against Israelis. In a 24 October update, OCHA said that, since the beginning of the month, it recorded approximately 180 incidents across the West Bank involving settlers, 60 percent of which were related to the olive harvest season. These incidents led to casualties or property damage in 104 cases.
Human Rights-Related Developments
The latest report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT), including East Jerusalem, and Israel, examines attacks on healthcare and the treatment of detainees and hostages from 7 October 2023 to August. Among other things, it says that Israel has implemented “a concerted policy to destroy” Gaza’s healthcare system. The report found that with their actions, such as the deliberate killing, detention and torture of medical personnel, Israeli security forces have committed war crimes and the crime against humanity of extermination. Additionally, it highlights widespread abuse of Palestinian detainees, including torture and sexual and gender-based violence. The report also concludes that Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups committed crimes against humanity and war crimes, including torture, in their treatment of the hostages.
Key Issues and Options
The Council’s failure to effectively expedite an end to the war in Gaza, prevent its regionalisation, and act to protect the viability of the two-state solution are fundamental issues undermining its credibility. That aid at scale is not reaching Palestinians in Gaza and that attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure have continued unabated are also issues of major concern.
Over a year into the war the Security Council is yet to issue a direct call for a ceasefire. The Council could consider a resolution that:
- demands an immediate and permanent ceasefire;
- demands the immediate release of the hostages;
- demands the immediate release of Palestinians detained without charge;
- requests the Secretary-General to establish a UN-monitoring mechanism in the case of a ceasefire to verify compliance;
- demands that the international community support an end to the violence by stopping the transfer of arms to Israel and Palestinian armed groups while there is a risk that they are used to commit serious violations of international humanitarian and human rights law;
- imposes sanctions on those who impede humanitarian access or attack humanitarian personnel;
- imposes sanctions on Israeli officials responsible for advancing settlement activity;
- imposes sanctions on Israeli and Hamas officials for serious violations of international law.
However, given that a more comprehensive resolution is unlikely, considering the US’ strong support of Israel, members could consider more focused outcomes, including on UNRWA and the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
Members could also start consultations on the deployment of an international protective presence in the OPT, as recommended in the latest report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967.
An option that would provide members with a better understanding of the impact of UNRWA’s inability to operate is a briefing from UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini in a private meeting.
Council Dynamics
Before 7 October 2023, Council dynamics precluded effective action in response to the non-implementation of Security Council resolutions as well as a shared strategy to restart a political process between Palestinians and Israelis, with the US maintaining that the circumstances were not ripe for the reignition of such a process.
These difficult dynamics shaped the Council’s response to the war, which has been marked by contentious and prolonged negotiations, with multiple failed adoptions. The US has vetoed three draft resolutions on the war proposed by Brazil, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Algeria, respectively. The US also vetoed a draft resolution that would have recommended that the State of Palestine be admitted to membership in the UN. The position of the US on the war in Gaza has led to accusations of double standards in comparison to its position on the war in Ukraine, deepening the divide among some Council members. China and Russia vetoed two US-proposed draft resolutions on the war, in both cases being accompanied by the negative vote of the Arab member of the Council (the UAE in 2023 and Algeria in 2024).
More recently, the US assented to the press statement on UNRWA and, on 13 October, sent a letter to Israeli officials listing measures to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza. While it is too early to assess whether this will translate into a noticeable shift in Council dynamics, it is unlikely that the US position of steadfast military and political support to Israel will change. At the 16 October MEPQ meeting, the US said that the Security Council “has an important role to play”, but ultimately “actions on the ground” more than discussions in New York, “are what will bring real progress”—an apparent reference to the US’ long-standing opposition to the adoption of Council products on this file.
At the time of writing, the ten elected members of the Council were consulting on a possible draft resolution on Gaza.
| Security Council Resolutions | |
| 10 June 2024S/RES/2735 | This resolution on the war between Israel and Hamas welcomes the ceasefire proposal announced by US President Joe Biden on 31 May 2024. The resolution was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (Russia). |
| 25 March 2024S/RES/2728 | This resolution demanded an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan leading to a lasting sustainable ceasefire. It also demanded the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages. It was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (US). |
