South Sudan
Expected Council Action
In November, the Security Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, to discuss the situation in South Sudan. Special Representative and Head of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) Nicholas Haysom is expected to brief on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on South Sudan, dated 25 October, and developments in the country.
The mandate of UNMISS expires on 30 April 2025.
Key Recent Developments
On 13 September, all signatories to the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) agreed to a 24-month extension of the transitional period. The decision again postponed the country’s first post-independence elections, which were scheduled for December 2024, until December 2026 and extended the transitional period until February 2027. (The original transitional period outlined in the R-ARCSS was set to end in February 2023; it had been extended until February 2025 through a roadmap adopted in August 2022.) In extending the transitional period, the R-ARCSS signatories cited lack of progress in implementing critical tasks necessary for holding elections, such as the constitution-making process, the registration of political parties, the holding of a census, and an integrated security plan. (For background and more information, see the brief on South Sudan in our August 2024 Monthly Forecast and 13 August What’s in Blue story.)
The decision to extend the transitional period was endorsed during the third extraordinary plenary session of the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC), the body responsible for overseeing the implementation of the R-ARCSS. Although 35 members of the plenary, including UNMISS, voted in favour of the endorsement, six members abstained, including the members of the Troika on South Sudan (Norway, the UK, and the US) and the European Union (EU). Subsequently, South Sudan’s Transitional National Legislative Assembly (TNLA) ratified the extension.
During a 9 October press briefing, Haysom expressed regret about the decision to extend the transitional period. He acknowledged the frustration and fatigue felt by the South Sudanese people at the political paralysis and inaction in the country. Haysom said that the only way forward for the South Sudanese authorities was to find compromises to implement a critical mass of the key political and operational benchmarks outlined in the R-ARCSS. Talking about the delays in the unification of forces, Haysom urged South Sudanese leaders to be open and honest about their intentions to unify their forces as it was the only way to sustainably prevent increasing subnational violence. He further noted that requests for financing from international partners for any aspect of the transition process needed to be accompanied by commitments demonstrating that South Sudanese authorities were ready to invest in their own democratic elections and processes.
According to the Secretary-General’s 25 October report, on 7 October, the South Sudanese High-Level Standing Committee—a senior South Sudanese ministerial-level body responsible for overseeing the implementation of the R-ARCSS—finalised their assessment and recommendations for aligning the Tumaini Peace Initiative with the revitalised agreement. (The Tumaini initiative refers to the high-level mediation talks between the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity [R-TGoNU] and the non-signatories to the revitalised agreement, facilitated by Kenya, in Nairobi.) On 28 October, the standing committee, led by South Sudanese Minister Martin Elia Lomuro, met with Kenyan President William Samoei Ruto in Nairobi.
The security situation remains volatile, with intercommunal and subnational violence persisting in many areas of the country. On 16 October, the UNMISS Human Rights Division released its quarterly brief on violence affecting civilians (covering April to June), which documented 317 incidents of violence affecting 1,062 civilians. In comparison to the previous quarter (January to March), the brief reported a 32 percent increase in the number of documented violent incidents (from 240 to 317) and a 168 percent increase in the number of victims of sexual violence (from 47 to 126).
In an 11 October press release, UNMISS expressed alarm about reports of a series of violent clashes in the greater Juba area of Central Equatoria state, resulting in the deaths of 24 people, including 19 civilians. It noted that these interconnected incidents allegedly involved attacks and counter-attacks between former members of the National Salvation Front, an armed group that continues to fight government forces. In response to the incidents, UNMISS intensified its patrols across Central Equatoria and engaged with state and local authorities and community leaders to access the area and prevent further escalations.
The humanitarian situation in the country remains difficult, with nearly nine million people in need of humanitarian assistance and 7.1 million people facing high levels of food insecurity. The challenging situation has been further compounded by flooding and impediments to humanitarian relief. According to an 18 October update from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), flooding has affected more than one million people across 42 counties and Abyei, with Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Unity states accounting for more than 40 percent of the affected population. Heavy rainfall and flooding also rendered 15 key supply routes impassable, restricting physical access.
Human Rights-Related Developments
In a 25 September press release, the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan attributed the decision to extend the transitional period to the failure of the country’s transitional political leaders to “conscientiously implement the revitalised peace agreement”, which it said has the potential to consolidate peace and uphold human rights protections. The Commission observed that this decision has resulted in a dire humanitarian crisis, characterised by extreme hunger and food insecurity, and the displacement of more than four million South Sudanese both in the country and the region. Chair of the Commission Yasmin Sooka said that “[s]ince independence in 2011, South Sudan’s unelected leaders have continued to entrench impunity for systematic and gross human rights violations, fuel insecurity, and deliberately thwart efforts to democratise the country.”
Key Issues and Options
The fundamental concern for the Council is the significant political and security challenges in South Sudan stemming from the delays in political transition and implementing the R-ARCSS. A key issue in this regard is what the Council can do to encourage the parties to make progress towards implementing the outstanding tasks and create conditions necessary for holding elections.
One option for the Council would be to invite Interim Chairperson of the RJMEC Major General (Retired) Charles Tai Gituai to brief the Council. Council members might be keen to learn about the progress of the inter-party dialogue and the Tumaini initiative mediation talks. In a 19 September joint statement, UNMISS, the AU Mission in South Sudan (AUMISS), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) underlined the need for South Sudanese leaders, among other things, to engage and accommodate all voices and viewpoints, including non-signatory parties, who have joined the Tumaini initiative, with a view to breaking the perpetual cycle of transitions in South Sudan.
In addition, the Council could invite a civil society representative in November to brief on the challenges facing South Sudan, including the implementation of the revitalised agreement.
Another option for Council members would be to issue a press statement, taking note of the decision by the South Sudanese authorities to extend the transitional period, expressing concern about the consistent delays in implementing the peace agreement, and urging all stakeholders to engage in constructive dialogue and a consultative process to implement the outstanding tasks, including the agreed-upon benchmarks for holding peaceful general elections, in a timely manner.
An additional key issue for the Council is the humanitarian and food security situations. An option would be to seek regular briefings on these matters from OCHA. The impact of the conflict in neighbouring Sudan on the humanitarian, political, and security situations in South Sudan remains a matter of concern for Council members. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as at 11 August, approximately 819,402 people—including 184,658 Sudanese refugees and 631,172 South Sudanese refugee returnees—have crossed into South Sudan since the outbreak of fighting in Sudan on 15 April 2023. The influx of refugees and returnees has exacerbated the strain on local communities, which are already grappling with diminishing resources.
Council and Wider Dynamics
Most Council members have similar concerns about the delays in implementing the R-ARCSS, the ongoing sub-national and intercommunal violence, and the economic and humanitarian crises in South Sudan. Members, however, have diverging views about the context of the situation and the extent to which the Council can and should apply pressure on the parties to fully implement the peace agreement.
Some members, such as the US, are more critical than others about what they perceive to be the South Sudanese government’s lack of political will to implement the R-ARCSS. On the other hand, Council members such as China, Russia, and the members of the “A3 plus one” (Algeria, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Guyana) are less critical of the government, often highlighting the progress the South Sudanese government has made amidst the country’s severe challenges, including the dire humanitarian situation, intercommunal violence, and the economic crisis.
On 18 September, the members of the Troika on South Sudan, joined by Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the EU, issued a joint statement, expressing disappointment at the decision to extend the transitional period. The decision, the statement said, reflects the failure of the transitional government to implement the 2018 revitalised agreement despite repeated promises made by the authorities. It called on all stakeholders to create the conditions necessary for holding peaceful, transparent and inclusive elections as soon as possible. It further stressed the need to engage all parties, including the non-signatories to the R-ARCSS, in a constructive process and demonstrate how they would use the proposed extension to advance the objectives that have not been realised in recent years. It added that the members expect the South Sudanese government to present a credible and transparent plan to finance the institutions responsible for implementing the peace process.
The US is the penholder on South Sudan, and Ambassador Michael Imran Kanu (Sierra Leone) chairs the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee.
| Security Council Resolutions | |
| 31 October 2024S/RES/2731 | renewed the South Sudan sanctions regime until 31 May 2025 and extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts of the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee until 1 July 2025. |
| Security Council Resolutions | |
| 31 October 2024S/RES/2729 | renewed the mandate of UNMISS until 30 April 2025. |
| Secretary-General’s Reports | |
| 31 October 2024S/2024/776 | was the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on South Sudan, which covered developments from 16 July to 15 October. |
