Lebanon
Expected Council Action
In November, Security Council members expect to receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701 of 2006. The report is expected by 13 November. Resolution 1701 reshaped the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in light of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah and called for a cessation of hostilities between the parties. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert and Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix are the anticipated briefers.
Council members are also likely to watch developments in Lebanon, Israel, and the region and evaluate whether additional Council action is required.
Key Recent Developments
The armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has continued to intensify. Following the outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas on 7 October 2023, Hezbollah and other armed groups have fired rockets into northern Israel in support of Hamas since 8 October 2023, while Israel has responded with airstrikes and the killing of Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon. In September, hostilities rapidly escalated with a wave of attacks widely attributed to Israel, which detonated thousands of Hezbollah’s electronic communication devices and a large-scale Israeli airstrike campaign targeting several areas in Lebanon, including Beirut, with one of these airstrikes killing Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah on 27 September.
Since 1 October, Israel has been carrying out ground operations in southern Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities in the area while expanding its airstrike campaign. For its part, Hezbollah has continued to launch rockets and missiles towards Israel, expanding its targets to areas deeper inside Israel. On 22 October, it claimed responsibility for a failed drone attack on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s holiday residence. In a 25 October statement on social media, UNIFIL reported that since early October, peacekeepers have observed “clashes on the ground” in numerous locations in UNIFIL’s area of operations. On 29 October, Hezbollah announced the appointment of Sheikh Naim Kassem, who had been Nasrallah’s deputy for over thirty years, as Hezbollah’s new secretary-general.
UNIFIL’s positions have repeatedly come under fire. Incidents included the wounding of two peacekeepers on 10 October after an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) tank fired towards an observation tower at UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura, and the destruction of the main gate and forcible entry by two IDF tanks into a UN position in Ramyah on 13 October. UNIFIL said that, after the two tanks left, peacekeepers reported the firing of several rounds that emitted smoke, injuring 15 peacekeepers. On 29 October, UNIFIL reported that a rocket hit its headquarters, noting that it was likely fired by Hezbollah “or an affiliated group”.
Israel has urged UNIFIL to move from its positions, stating that this is to avoid danger. On 2 October, Spokesperson for the Secretary-General Stéphane Dujarric said that, in response to Israel’s request, a decision was made both “operationally and politically” for UNIFIL to stay in its positions to implement its mandate. Israel’s warnings have raised concerns regarding the prospect of Israel launching a full-scale ground invasion in southern Lebanon. Commentators also noted that a withdrawal of UNIFIL troops would leave no impartial observers in that event. At a 10 October Security Council meeting on the situation in Lebanon, Lacroix said that UNIFIL has adopted measures to mitigate risks, including reducing the mission’s footprint by 25 percent “at the most affected UN positions” and temporarily relocating peacekeepers to larger bases in UNIFIL’s area of operations, while continuing to re-assess the force’s posture against “prevailing risks”. While peacekeepers remain deployed, most civilian personnel have been temporarily relocated north of the Litani River.
In response to the attacks on UNIFIL positions, a group of troop-contributing countries issued a joint statement on 12 October reaffirming support for UNIFIL and calling for the attacks to stop immediately. On 14 October, the members of the Security Council issued press elements expressing concern at UNIFIL’s positions coming under fire and urging all parties to respect the safety and security of UN personnel and premises. Members also expressed deep concern over civilian casualties and displacement and called for adherence to international humanitarian law. Additionally, members emphasised UNIFIL’s role in supporting regional stability and called for the full implementation of resolution 1701, while also recognising “the need for further practical measures to achieve that outcome” and emphasising the need for diplomatic efforts that would bring “a durable end to the conflict” and allow civilians on both sides of the Blue Line to return to their homes. (The Blue Line is a withdrawal line set by the UN in 2000 to confirm the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. While not representing an international border, the Blue Line acts in practice as a boundary between Lebanon and Israel in the absence of an agreed-upon border between the two states.)
The humanitarian situation in Lebanon continues to deteriorate. A 30 October update by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), covering developments until 28 October, says that 2,710 people have been killed in Lebanon since 8 October 2023. The update notes that the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported a sharp increase in the number of casualties among health sector workers. Healthcare and access to clean water have been severely affected by the hostilities, with reports of 15 hospitals being damaged in Lebanon and a confirmed case of cholera in the Akkar governorate. The OCHA update also indicates that journalists are also facing severe risks. During a 25 October press briefing, Deputy Spokesperson for the Secretary-General Farhan Haq noted with concern reports of an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon which hit an apartment housing journalists and other media personnel. The airstrike killed three people and wounded three others.
OCHA reports that displacement of civilians remains a key concern amid “ongoing airstrikes and forced displacement orders” issued across Lebanon by the Israeli army. As at 27 October, 834,746 people had been displaced in Lebanon, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Additionally, an estimated 440,000 people (Lebanese, Syrians, and third-country nationals) have crossed into Syria, and 22,498 Lebanese nationals have entered Iraq since the escalation of hostilities.
According to Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo’s 10 October Security Council briefing, more than 50 people had been killed and over 60,000 displaced in Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan since the start of the hostilities. DiCarlo also said that at least twelve Israeli soldiers had been killed in Lebanese territory since 1 October.
On 24 October, France organised an international conference in Paris to mobilise support for Lebanon. Participants announced $1 billion in aid, including $800 million in humanitarian aid and $200 million to support Lebanon’s security forces. A statement issued by France after the conference said that the financial and in-kind support pledged to the Lebanese security forces should allow them to “prepare a massive deployment of the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon, as part of a diplomatic settlement”.
The political situation in Lebanon remains unchanged. Lebanon has been without a president for two years since Michel Aoun’s term ended on 31 October 2022, with opposing politico-sectarian blocks unable to agree on a candidate. The presidential vacuum is compounded by the fact that, over two years since the 15 May 2022 legislative elections, Lebanon’s government remains in caretaker status.
Human Rights-Related Developments
In a 22 October press release, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said that he was appalled by the Israeli strike that occurred a day earlier near Rafik Hariri University Hospital, one of Beirut’s main medical facilities in the densely populated Jnah neighbourhood. The strike reportedly killed at least 18 people—including four children—injured 60 others and damaged the hospital itself. Türk emphasised that the protection of civilians must be the utmost priority for all parties, stating that “all feasible precautions must be taken to avoid, and in any event to minimise, incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians and damage to civilian objects” in military operations. He also stressed that hospitals, ambulances, and medical personnel are specifically protected under international humanitarian law due to their critical life-saving roles. Türk reiterated the UN’s call for an immediate cessation of hostilities.
Women, Peace and Security
A 25 October UN Women update highlights the risks to the health, safety and dignity of women and girls in Lebanon against a backdrop of escalating hostilities and pre-existing discriminatory norms. According to consultations carried out by UN Women, women heads of households, widows, women with disabilities, migrant domestic workers, and older women are facing increased risks and need specific humanitarian support. The update says that, despite significant challenges, women-led and women’s rights organisations are “at the forefront of the humanitarian response and are actively engaged in delivering life-saving aid” to displaced people. The update calls for funding these efforts and underscores the need for the humanitarian response to uphold the rights of women and girls. It also calls for strengthening the representation of women in decision-making forums.
Key Issues and Options
Returning to a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah and averting a regional conflagration in the Middle East are urgent issues for the Security Council.
Council members may consider issuing a presidential statement urging all parties to immediately return to a full cessation of hostilities and to fully implement resolution 1701. The presidential statement could stress the importance of protecting civilians and civilian infrastructure, guaranteeing the safety and security of UNIFIL, and fully adhering with international law.
Shortly before publication, several news outlets described a leaked ceasefire proposal between Israel and Lebanon drafted by the US. In the event of such an agreement, a key issue for the Council would be to evaluate the implications of the terms of the proposal on UNIFIL’s mandate and the framework established by resolution 1701.
That the root causes of the hostility between Israel and Hezbollah and of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remain unaddressed is a long-standing issue. At the same time, a ceasefire in Gaza would contribute to de-escalating the situation along the Blue Line and in the wider region. Council members could renew their efforts towards that end. (For options in this regard, see the brief on “The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question” in our November Monthly Forecast.)
Council Dynamics
Council members ostensibly agree that there should be a return to a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Council members are also broadly supportive of UNIFIL. Council dynamics on this file remain difficult, however.
There are sharp differences in Council members’ views of Hezbollah. Some members distinguish between Hezbollah’s political and military wings and have only designated its military wing as a terrorist organisation; other members, including the UK and the US, have listed Hezbollah in its entirety as a terrorist organisation. On the other hand, Russia sees Hezbollah as a legitimate sociopolitical force in Lebanon.
The US has said that it supports “Israel’s efforts to degrade” Hezbollah while also stating that “ultimately” it wants to see a diplomatic solution to the conflict. In Council negotiations, it has apparently called for language stressing the need for a diplomatic solution to achieve the implementation of resolution 1701, rather than language directly urging the resolutions’ full implementation. The US has also apparently opposed language calling for de-escalation and a cessation of hostilities in recent negotiations on draft Council products on Lebanon.
During the negotiations on resolution 2749, renewing UNIFIL’s mandate in August, the US sought at first to delete, and later to qualify, draft language directly demanding a restoration of the cessation of hostilities across the Blue Line, a move that some members interpreted as being motivated by the intention to avoid restricting Israel’s ability to fight Hezbollah. Proposals from the US to reduce the length of UNIFIL’s mandate renewal from 12 to 6 months or, alternatively, linking a one-year renewal to expressing the Council’s intention to revisit UNIFIL’s mandate to “help enable the full implementation of any future diplomatic understanding between the parties” did not find support and were not included. Among other issues, several members were apparently uncomfortable with the Security Council linking UNIFIL’s mandate renewal to an agreement that was yet to materialise and the conditions and format to which they were not privy.
| Security Council Resolutions | |
| 28 August 2024S/RES/2749 | This resolution extended the mandate of UNIFIL for another year until 31 August 2025. |
| 11 August 2006S/RES/1701 | This resolution called for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. It also expanded UNIFIL’s mandate. |
