November 2024 Monthly Forecast

AFRICA

Central African Republic

Expected Council Action

In November, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), which expires on 15 November.

The Central African Republic (CAR) sanctions regime expires on 31 July 2025, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 2745 CAR Sanctions Committee expires on 31 August 2025.

Key Recent Developments

On 23 October, Special Representative of the Secretary-General for the CAR and Head of MINUSCA Valentine Rugwabiza briefed the Council on efforts to advance the implementation of the 2019 Political Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation in the CAR, including progress in the disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration of former combatants; the implementation of security sector reform; and the restoration of state authority. (For more, see our 22 October What’s in Blue story.)

On 26 September, CAR President Faustin Touadéra, in his statement at the 79th session of the UN General Assembly, expressed his satisfaction with the Security Council’s decision to lift the arms embargo imposed on his country. In addition to lifting the embargo, resolution 2745 of 30 July also strengthened all other targeted sanctions measures against armed groups and associated individuals. (For more, see our 29 July What’s in Blue story.)

Touadéra also spoke about his country’s strong potential for expanding its mining industry and reiterated his government’s call for the total lifting of the embargo on diamonds. The embargo was imposed by the Kimberley Process, a multilateral trade regime established in 2003 with the goal of preventing the flow of conflict diamonds that limited export volumes and their per-carat value. The suspension limits exports from production areas in the east and some parts in the west of the CAR, according to the Panel of Experts supporting the work of the 2745 CAR Sanctions Committee. This has led the CAR government to campaign for the lifting of the suspensions.

The CAR has been preparing to hold local elections for the first time in four decades. MINUSCA is expected to provide assistance to the CAR authorities in organising the polls, in accordance with resolution 2709 of 15 November 2023, which renewed the mandate of MINUSCA. With a budget shortfall posing a major challenge, CAR authorities announced in August the postponement of local elections, which had been planned for 13 October, until April 2025. As at 1 October, only $4.8 million out of $14.8 million needed to organise the elections had been mobilised, according to the Secretary-General’s latest report on MINUSCA published on 11 October.

The security situation has remained volatile, particularly in the northwest and east, because of competition over natural resources and control of major roads. Civilians continue to bear the brunt of instability in the country, and the use of explosive ordnance remains an ongoing challenge. Various armed groups are also involved in kidnapping for ransom. The influx of refugees and returnees to the CAR from Sudan has exacerbated the humanitarian situation. Since April 2023, over 29,000 Sudanese have crossed into the CAR to seek refuge, according to the Secretary-General’s report. In line with its mandate, MINUSCA continues to assist the CAR government in expanding state authority and facilitating the delivery of humanitarian assistance.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 7 October, the Independent Expert on the situation of human rights in the CAR, Yao Agbetse presented his report (A/HRC/57/79) to the Human Rights Council. The expert carried out two assessment visits to the CAR from 9 to 18 August 2023 and from 11 to 22 February.

The report noted that between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2024, the MINUSCA Human Rights Division documented 2,724 human rights violations and abuses affecting 4,121 victims, including 2,493 men, 426 women, 306 girls, 524 boys, 5 minors whose sex is unknown, and 367 collective victims. The report added that armed groups were responsible for 1,575 human rights violations, resulting in 2,199 victims. It further mentioned that violations committed by the army, police and gendarmerie have declined but not ceased. According to the MINUSCA Human Rights Division, state agents were responsible for 1,149 violations affecting 1,932 victims.

The report highlighted that women’s participation in national decision-making mechanisms remains marginal, as does their place in the ongoing peace and reconciliation process. The proportion of women in the National Assembly is 12 percent. Women’s desire to be voters and candidates in local elections and to play a role in local development is impeded by psychological violence, stubborn prejudices and certain customary practices that confine them to subordinate roles, according to the report.

Peacebuilding Commission Developments 

On 23 October, the Chair of the CAR country configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), Ambassador Omar Hilale (Morocco), briefed the Council. He emphasised the need to support CAR’s ongoing efforts to promote stabilisation, recovery and sustainable development. He also stressed the need to ensure adequate financial support for the organisation of local elections in 2025 to consolidate sustainable peace in the country.

Key Issues and Options

The renewal of MINUSCA’s mandate will be a key issue for Council members in November. In this regard, MINUSCA’s transition could be a focus of attention during the upcoming mandate-renewal negotiation process. The MINUSCA strategic review, circulated to Council members on 14 August, recommended that the mission and the host country initiate discussions on a potential transition plan in 2026, following the presidential and legislative elections expected to take place in 2025-2026.

The most likely option for Council members is to extend the mission’s mandate for one year, as recommended by the Secretary-General’s report. However, there could be discussions and negotiations on the mission’s mandate, priorities, and authorised strength. While the review said that “there is currently no desire or request from the national authorities for the drawdown of MINUSCA”, it acknowledged the host country’s desire to see the mission’s mandate adapted to support the CAR government’s early recovery and development initiatives. The review also assessed MINUSCA’s mandate as remaining relevant, stressing that its full and effective implementation required sustained support from the CAR government and the Security Council. Some Council members, however, may still want to advocate for a reduction in the mission’s authorised strength.

The CAR authorities have formally requested the UN to provide electoral assistance to the presidential and legislative elections in 2025-2026. Pursuant to resolution 2709, MINUSCA has already been given the mandate to support the CAR authorities in organising local elections. Council members may note the postponement of local elections planned for October and call on the CAR authorities to ensure that fair and inclusive local elections are held in April 2025. They may also consider enhancing the current mandate to allow MINUSCA to provide support to the upcoming presidential and legislative elections.

The restrictions on MINUSCA’s freedom of movement and the use of uncrewed aerial vehicles, or drones, have been an ongoing issue. Since December 2023, the CAR government has restricted the use of drones, which some Council members argue undermines the mission’s ability to enhance its situational awareness, protect civilians, and ensure the safety and security of peacekeepers. According to the Secretary-General’s report, the mission had to terminate its contract for drones on 15 July because of these restrictions.

The implementation of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) could also be an issue in the upcoming negotiations. The CAR authorities have raised concerns about tax exemptions, citing pressing economic challenges. MINUSCA is exempt from taxation, but the CAR authorities are trying to increase their tax revenue by renegotiating the SOFA to include taxes on MINUSCA.

Council Dynamics

Council members appreciate MINUSCA’s work and the Special Representative’s efforts in maintaining positive relations with host country authorities. Several members continue to raise concerns, however, about restrictions on the mission’s freedom of movement, particularly on its use of uncrewed aerial vehicles. On the other hand, Russia and the CAR have expressed concerns about armed groups that operate drones, which they give as the reason the CAR government suspended all drone flights.

Some Council members, such as France, the US, and the UK, have expressed alarm at the increasing disinformation campaign against MINUSCA. The CAR has highlighted the government’s continued efforts to counter this trend but notes that it should be seen as an expression of public dissatisfaction with the mission’s inability to meet people’s expectations.

Regarding MINUSCA’s mandate renewal in November, the CAR had in the past underscored the need to adapt the mandate to new priorities and realities on the ground, but the review said that the government is no longer pushing for a mission drawdown. China noted positively the strategic review’s “recommendations for optimizing and adjusting the mandate and staffing of the Mission, so as to ensure that MINUSCA performs its duties efficiently”. It seems that China may wish to see a reduction in the mission’s authorised strength at this mandate renewal.

France is the penholder on the CAR, and Ambassador Amar Bendjama (Algeria) chairs the 2745 CAR Sanctions Committee.

Sign up for SCR emails
UN DOCUMENTS ON THE CAR

Security Council Resolutions
15 November 2023S/RES/2709 This resolution renews the mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) for another year, until 15 November 2024.
Security Council Meeting Records
23 October 2024S/PV.9758 This meeting was on the situation in the Central African Republic.

Subscribe to receive SCR publications