October 2024 Monthly Forecast

UNDOF (Golan)

Expected Council Action

In October, the Council will hold its quarterly consultations on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan.

The mandate of UNDOF expires on 31 December 2024.

Background and Key Recent Developments

UNDOF was established following the conclusion of the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement (the 1974 agreement) between Israel and Syria, which ended the Yom Kippur War. Its mandate is to maintain the ceasefire between the parties and supervise the disengagement of Israeli and Syrian forces as well as the areas of separation (a demilitarised buffer zone) and limitation (where Israeli and Syrian troops and equipment are restricted) in the Golan.

Carrying out the mandate entails monitoring violations of the 1974 agreement, reporting them, and liaising with both sides. Such violations regularly include unauthorised personnel and equipment present in the areas of separation and limitation, weapons fired, and drones and aircraft travelling across the ceasefire line.

The Secretary General’s 4 March UNDOF report, covering the period from 21 February to 20 May, observed that several violations of the 1974 agreement had continued, although the ceasefire between Israel and Syria in the Golan had generally held. Violations during this period included the presence of Syrian forces in the area of separation, and the “continued presence of unauthorized weapons and equipment in the areas of limitation on both the Alpha [Israeli] and Bravo [Syrian] sides, as well as the flying of aircraft and drones across the ceasefire line and over the area of separation”.

Key Issues and Options

One key issue is the challenges that the mission faces in carrying out its mandate, such as the restrictions on the movement and access of UNDOF personnel.

Another key issue is whether unrest in the wider region will affect the situation in the Golan. Media reports from late September claim that some 40,000 mercenaries and militia fighters from Iraq, Syria, and Yemen have gathered in Syria near the Golan and could be deployed by Hezbollah against Israel. Council members may be interested in receiving more information about these reports during the October consultations.

Another issue for Council members is the ongoing violations of the 1974 agreement. Members may consider pursuing a presidential statement urging parties to adhere to their commitments under the agreement while expressing concern about the risk of escalation resulting from these violations and the potential danger they pose to the safety and security of peacekeepers.

Council Dynamics

The unanimous adoption of resolution 2737 of 27 June, which reauthorised UNDOF’s mandate for six months, illustrated that the Council remains united in its view that UNDOF plays an important role in regional stability. Despite deep divisions in the Council regarding the Syria file and opposing positions by the UNDOF co-penholders—Russia and the US—about who holds sovereignty over the Golan, as well as antagonism over other files such as Ukraine, the two countries continue to consider UNDOF as a separate issue on which they agree. The difficult dynamics on other Council files were not evident during the straightforward negotiations on UNDOF’s mandate in June 2024, and no Council member felt that an explanation of vote was necessary following the adoption. Some Council members believe that the situation has turned into a protracted conflict owing to continued violations of the 1974 agreement by both sides.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON UNDOF

Security Council Resolutions
27 June 2024S/RES/2737 This resolution renewed the UNDOF mandate for six months.
31 May 1974S/RES/350 This resolution established UNDOF.
Secretary-General’s Reports
4 June 2024S/2024/433 This report was the quarterly report on UNDOF.

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