October 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2024
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SECURITY COUNCIL AND WIDER UN STRUCTURE

UN-AU Cooperation

Expected Council Action

In October, the Council is expected to hold a briefing on cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organisations, focusing on the African Union (AU). Special Representative of the Secretary-General to the AU and Head of the UN Office to the AU (UNOAU) Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO) Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, and AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Bankole Adeoye are the expected briefers.

Key Recent Developments

The Secretary-General’s annual report on strengthening the partnership between the UN and the AU on issues of peace and security in Africa, including the work of the UNOAU, serves as the basis for this meeting. The annual debate usually takes place under an African Security Council presidency. However, this year’s two African presidencies were in May and August, and the annual report was released in late August. Therefore, Switzerland will convene the debate to consider the report during its Security Council presidency in October.

The report describes the partnership between the UN and the AU in conflict prevention and peacemaking, peacekeeping and peace support operations, as well as peacebuilding and the rule of law. It describes the state of peace and security in Africa, including, among other things, the Sudanese crisis that has displaced more than two million people, the political impasse in Libya, the increasing tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, the deteriorating security and humanitarian situation in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and the growing threat of terrorism and violent extremism in the Sahel.

Additionally, the report provides updates on the implementation of resolution 2719 of 21 December 2023 on financing AU-led peace support operations. The UN and the AU have been consulting on the resolution’s implementation through their joint task team. The team is organised along four workstreams: joint planning, decision-making and reporting; mission support; financing and budgeting; and compliance and protection of civilians. The joint task team had in-person meetings in Addis Ababa, the home of the AU’s headquarters, in May and in New York in July to elaborate a joint AU-UN roadmap on implementing resolution 2719 and its planning modalities, which will be submitted to the UN Secretary-General and the AU Commission Chairperson for adoption during their next UN-AU annual high-level conference scheduled to take place in October in Addis Ababa.

During the Swiss Presidency in October, the 18th annual joint consultative meeting of the Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) will also be held. The annual meeting rotates between New York and Addis Ababa; this year’s meeting will be held in New York on 18 October. The agenda items include the situation in Sudan; the situation in Somalia and security arrangements after the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) ends; the situation in the Sahel and the Lake Chad basin, including countering the threat of terrorism; and the situations in the Central African Republic, eastern DRC, and the Great Lakes region.

This meeting is expected to be preceded on 16 and 17 October by the ninth informal joint seminar of the Security Council and the AUPSC. The Swiss Presidency has proposed holding this seminar, for the first time, in a retreat format, in Tarrytown, New York. The two Councils aim to exchange views on several thematic issues during the retreat, including the implementation of resolution 2719; Youth, Women, Peace and Security; Children and Armed Conflict; the adverse effects of climate change; and implementing the joint working methods of the two Councils.

Over the last couple of years, the AU Committee of Experts has visited New York before the annual consultations to meet with Security Council counterparts and negotiate the draft outcome document. Last year, for the first time, Security Council experts travelled to Addis Ababa on 3-4 October in preparation for the 17th annual consultations and met with their AUPSC counterparts. This year, AUPSC experts are expected to arrive in New York on 13 October before the 18th annual consultations to meet with their Security Council counterparts and finalise the joint communiqué to be adopted at the end of the meeting. At the time of writing, Council members had already started negotiating the draft, which they are expected to generate as the meeting’s host this year.

Key Issues and Options

A key issue for Council members will be how to address the most pressing peace and security situations in Africa. Aside from specific conflicts, several thematic issues—including the growing threat of terrorism and violent extremism, the resurgence of coups, the increasing role of mercenaries on the continent, and the worsening humanitarian situation with massive human displacement due to ongoing conflicts—may draw the attention of Council members.

Council members could consider initiating discussions with their AUPSC counterparts on the modalities for joint visiting missions to conflict situations in Africa. The two Councils had agreed in principle to conduct such missions during their joint annual consultations in 2018. The “A3 plus one” grouping (currently Algeria, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Guyana)—particularly Mozambique as chair of the Security Council Ad-Hoc Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa—could take the lead in facilitating this discussion between the two Councils.

Another major issue is how to address the long-standing request for the financing of AU-led peace support operations (AUPSOs) from UN-assessed contributions. Council members are keen to receive updates from the UN Secretariat on implementing resolution 2719 before the annual consultations in line with a 23 May presidential statement.

Council Dynamics

Council members are generally supportive of the cooperation and partnership between the UN and the AU on peace and security, and the role of the A3 has been vital in this regard. In recent years, the A3 (and A3+) has enhanced its position in the Council through joint statements and coordination in negotiations on various Council products with a particular focus on Africa. It has also emerged as a cohesive negotiating bloc, significantly enhancing its influence within the Council. It is currently exploring the possibility of ensuring penholding or co-penholding on all African dossiers and dossiers of interest to Africa on the Council’s agenda.

Regarding the implementation of resolution 2719, some Council members appear to have reservations about possible cases that could be considered for support under this resolution. Some members have discussed Somalia as an option, although the US—the largest contributor of assessed contributions to UN peacekeeping operations—has expressed reservations. In the context of discussions on the new follow-on mission to replace ATMIS, resolution 2748 of 15 August, which most recently renewed the mission’s mandate, requested the Secretary-General, in collaboration with the AU Commission Chairperson and in consultation with Somalia and international stakeholders, to submit a report by 15 November outlining the overall mission design for the proposed successor mission and options for financing, including but not limited to resolution 2719.

In its explanation of vote during the adoption of resolution 2748, the US said that “resolution 2719 can only be realistically implemented after instituting an interim bridging approach over the course of the next two years, and provided that AU is ready to implement it”. The US added that it aims to avoid prematurely authorising resolution 2719 for Somalia without the required budgetary, accountability, and human rights frameworks.

It seems that preliminary discussions have started behind the scenes on a possible mission in Sudan, exploring various options from a lighter-footprint mission with military observers to a full-fledged AUPSO. However, this possibility currently appears remote, given the lack of progress in the ongoing Sudanese mediation process and the need for a ceasefire or a cessation of hostilities agreement as necessary preconditions for the deployment of any mission on the ground.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON COOPERATION BETWEEN THE UN AND THE AU

Security Council Resolutions
21 December 2023S/RES/2719 This was a resolution on the financing of African Union (AU)-led peace support operations (AUPSOs).
27 February 2019S/RES/2457 This was a resolution adopted during a meeting on “Cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organizations in maintaining international peace and security”.
20 September 2017S/RES/2378 This was a resolution on UN peacekeeping reform.
18 November 2016S/RES/2320 This was a resolution which welcomed the AU Assembly decision to fund 25 percent of AU peace support operations, to be phased incrementally over five years. Senegal circulated a concept note ahead of the meeting.
Security Council Presidential Statements
23 May 2024S/PRST/2024/2 This statement was on the maintenance of international peace and security.
Secretary-General’s Reports
26 August 2024S/2024/629 This report was on strengthening the partnership between the UN and the AU on issues of peace and security in Africa, including the work of the UNOAU.
Security Council Meeting Records
12 October 2023S/PV.9435 This was a meeting on the cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organisations in maintaining international peace and security.

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