October 2024 Monthly Forecast

The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

Expected Council Action

In October, the Security Council expects to hold its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (MEPQ). Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland is expected to brief.

Council members are likely to convene additional meetings during the month and evaluate whether further Council action is required.

Key Recent Developments

Almost one year since the outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas following the 7 October 2023 attacks and over three months since the adoption of resolution 2735, which welcomed a ceasefire proposal announced by the US, the prospects for a cessation of hostilities in Gaza appear remote.

While the world’s attention turns to developments in Lebanon, Israeli bombardment from the air and land continues to be reported across the Gaza Strip, alongside ground operations, heavy fighting, and rocket fire by Palestinian armed groups.

The Security Council’s resolutions on the war in Gaza (resolutions 2712, 2720, and 2728) remain largely unimplemented, as do the provisional measures ordered by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the context of South Africa’s proceedings against Israel concerning possible violations in the Gaza Strip of obligations under the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

Figures provided by Palestinian officials in Gaza cited by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) indicate that, as at 26 September, at least 41,534 Palestinians had been killed during Israel’s military campaign, while over 10,000 remain under the rubble. A 30 July report by the World Health Organization (WHO) found that about 25 percent of all those injured (or, 22,500 people) are likely to have “acute and ongoing rehabilitation needs, including patients with extremity injuries, amputations, head and spinal cord injuries and burns”. At least 1.9 million people are estimated to be displaced across the Gaza Strip, with a recent report by Cambridge University and the Centre for Lebanese Studies documenting the severe and long-lasting repercussions of the war on Palestinian children’s learning.

According to figures provided by Israeli authorities cited by OCHA, over 1,546 Israelis and foreign nationals have been killed between 7 October 2023 and 27 September, the vast majority on 7 October 2023. As at 10 September, 101 hostages remained captive in Gaza according to Israeli sources cited by the UN.

Analysts have identified Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as one of the deadliest and most destructive in recent history. Large areas of Gaza, including critical infrastructure, have been bombed to the ground, with about 63 percent of the total structures in the Gaza Strip estimated to be destroyed, damaged, or possibly damaged. According to the UN Development Programme (UNDP), even if a five-fold increase in construction materials were allowed into Gaza, it would take until 2040 to rebuild completely destroyed housing units. But it could take “approximately 80 years” if reconstruction were to follow the same pattern as after previous escalations.

The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains abysmal. At a recent press conference, UNICEF Director of Child Nutrition and Development Victor Aguayo estimated that “over 50,000 children suffer from acute malnutrition and need immediate treatment”, before warning of the ongoing risk of famine.

In July, six environmental samples of variant poliovirus type 2 (polio) were detected in Gaza. In response, the UN launched a two-round vaccination campaign for children under ten years of age across the Gaza Strip during localised humanitarian pauses. The first round was successfully completed on 12 September. A 20 August joint statement by humanitarian organisations and medical professionals noted that the reemergence of polio in Gaza was “a direct result of the destruction of water and sanitation infrastructure, and the Government of Israel’s restrictions on repairs and supplies”. These actions, together with “overcrowding, displacement, and a crippled healthcare system”, created an environment ripe for the virus’ spread, the statement said.

Humanitarian aid in Gaza continues to face significant constraints, with OCHA reporting that, as at 27 September, 87 percent of such movements between northern and southern Gaza coordinated with the Israeli authorities in September had been either denied or impeded. This follows the month of August, which OCHA had identified as the most challenging month for humanitarian access since January, with 46 percent of all humanitarian movements being either denied or impeded. In a recent statement, the Norwegian Refugee Council said that “[w]ith the amount of aid Israel is currently allowing into Gaza”, it will take over two years to deliver the kits needed to prepare shelters south of Wadi Gaza for this coming winter.

Other constraints to humanitarian aid delivery often cited by UN officials include ongoing hostilities, the limited number of open crossing points, and the breakdown of law and order in Gaza leading to the looting of supplies. UN officials have noted that, as the occupying power, it is incumbent on Israel to “restore public order and safety as far as possible and facilitate safe humanitarian access” to Gaza.

Lack of security for humanitarians is another key factor contributing to aid not reaching Palestinians. Addressing the Security Council at a 27 September meeting on the MEPQ, Secretary-General António Guterres referenced two recent incidents in which clearly marked UN vehicles that were part of convoys that had been coordinated with the Israeli authorities were attacked by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) before underscoring that attacks on humanitarians are an “unacceptable assault” on UN values and “must stop”.

Following the recovery on 1 September of the bodies of six hostages, who the IDF said had been killed by their captors as Israeli forces neared, Hamas announced that it was operating under a new set of instructions issued after Israel’s rescue of four hostages in June in an operation that killed many Palestinians. A 31 July report by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) noted that Palestinian armed groups have prevented the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) from visiting the hostages. It added that released Israeli hostages had “described being beaten while being taken into Gaza, or seeing other hostages being beaten while in captivity”.

The report also observed that thousands of Palestinians have been detained by the IDF, “most of them without charges or trial”, since early November 2023, and that Israel has suspended the ICRC’s access to all Palestinian detainees since 7 October 2023. The report added that released detainees reported being subject to forms of torture or other ill-treatment.

According to the nonprofit organisation the Committee to Protect Journalists, at least 116 journalists and media workers have been killed during the war, including 111 Palestinians, two Israelis, and three Lebanese. Foreign journalists remain barred from accessing the Gaza Strip without Israel’s approval and an IDF escort. On 22 September, the Israeli authorities ordered the closure of Al Jazeera’s Ramallah office for 45 days, a move that Amnesty International has identified as raising press freedom concerns.

On 31 July, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran’s capital, Tehran. The attack has been widely attributed to Israel, although it has not taken responsibility for it.

In May, South Africa sent a letter to the Security Council containing a dossier relating to Israel’s “intent and incitement to commit genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza”.

Resolution 2720 of December 2023, which mandated the appointment of a Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator (SHRC) for Gaza, requested the SHRC to report to the Council every 90 days until 30 September. At the time of writing, Council members were negotiating an extension of the reporting requirement established in resolution 2720.

Regarding the situation in the West Bank, Israel advanced or approved 6,370 housing units during the reporting period (11 June-11 September) of the latest Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 2334. Demolitions and seizures of Palestinian-owned structures continued. The report says that one Palestinian was killed by Israeli settlers while 160 were killed during Israeli airstrikes, “search-and-arrest operations, armed exchanges, demonstrations and other incidents”, adding that in August, Israeli airstrikes in the West Bank “killed at least one Palestinian every day, on average”. The report says that 14 Israelis were killed by Palestinians in “shooting, stabbing and ramming attacks and other incidents”.

On 19 July, the ICJ rendered its Advisory Opinion on the “Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem”. It reaffirmed that Israeli settlements “and the régime associated with them, have been established and are being maintained in violation of international law”. The ICJ determined that Israel’s policies and practices, such as its maintenance and expansion of settlements, are designed to “create irreversible effects on the ground” and, as such, “amount to annexation of large parts” of the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT). The ICJ also found that Israel’s legislation and measures in the West Bank and East Jerusalem “impose and serve to maintain a near-complete separation” between settlers and Palestinians and, as such, constitute a breach of Article 3 of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination, which refers to racial segregation and apartheid.

During the 17-18 September resumed Tenth Emergency Special Session (ESS) on “Illegal Israeli actions in occupied East Jerusalem and the rest of the Occupied Palestinian Territory”, the General Assembly voted—124 votes in favour, 14 against, and 43 abstentions—on a resolution on the Advisory Opinion tabled by the State of Palestine. The resolution demands that Israel, among other things, end its “unlawful presence” in the OPT in “no later” than 12 months, and that it immediately ceases all new settlement activity and evacuates all settlers from the OPT. The resolution calls upon UN member states to implement sanctions against those engaged in the maintenance of Israel’s presence in the OPT and take steps towards ceasing the importation of products from the settlements and the provision or transfer of arms and munitions that may be used in the OPT. Several international NGOs have issued a similar call regarding the transfer of arms in a 17 September joint statement.

Women, Peace and Security

A recent UN Women update estimates that 177,000 women in Gaza face “life-threatening health risks, including from non-communicable diseases and hunger and poor nutrition during pregnancy”. The update says that women and girls are at heightened risk of exposure to certain diseases due to their role in caring for sick family members in severely overcrowded shelters in the absence of adequate water and sanitation. It also reports that an estimated 155,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women “confront obstacles to antenatal and postnatal care”.

Key Issues and Options

The Council’s failure to effectively expedite an end to the war in Gaza, prevent its regionalisation, and act to protect the viability of the two-state solution are issues of serious concern. That aid at scale is not reaching Palestinians in Gaza and that attacks targeting humanitarian personnel have continued are additional issues of concern.

The Council could consider a resolution that:

Any agreement on such a resolution is unlikely, however, given that the US remains steadfast in its political and military support of Israel.

Council members could invite briefings from some of the UN independent experts who issued a statement in June stressing that transferring weapons and ammunition to Israel “may constitute serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian laws” risking state complicity in “international crimes, possibly including genocide”. The briefing could focus on the legal consequences of weapons and ammunition transfer when there is a clear risk that such weapons may be used to commit serious IHL and IHRL violations.

The ESS resolution decided to convene a conference during the current session of the General Assembly to advance the implementation of UN resolutions on “the question of Palestine and the two-state solution for a just, lasting and comprehensive peace in the Middle East”. Members who have expressed support for such an international conference, like China and Slovenia, could start consultations to this effect.

Council Dynamics

Before 7 October 2023, Council dynamics precluded effective action in response to the non-implementation of Security Council resolutions as well as a shared strategy to restart a political process between Palestinians and Israelis, with the US maintaining that the circumstances were not ripe for the reignition of such a process.

Difficult dynamics have characterised the Council’s response to the war, which has been marked by contentious and prolonged negotiations, with multiple failed adoptions. Council negotiations on this file have shown that it is not possible for the Council to adopt an outcome that the US does not largely support. On 12 September, for instance, the US blocked press elements proposed by Algeria that would have condemned the 11 September Israeli airstrike on a school sheltering displaced people that killed at least 18 people, including six employees of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). The press elements would have also reaffirmed that humanitarian personnel should be protected in accordance with international law.

The position of the US on the war in Gaza has led to accusations of double standards in comparison to its position on the war in Ukraine, further deepening the divide among some Council members.

Recently, several members—including China, Guyana, Russia, and Slovenia—have expressed frustration at the lack of implementation of resolution 2735, with some arguing that the Council should move to consider its next steps. At the 27 September meeting, Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob said that he had instructed his ambassador to start consultations on “a possible new humanitarian resolution on Palestine”.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON THE MIDDLE EAST, INCLUDING THE PALESTINIAN QUESTION

Security Council Resolutions
10 June 2024S/RES/2735 This resolution on the war between Israel and Hamas welcomes the ceasefire proposal announced by US President Joe Biden on 31 May 2024. The resolution was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (Russia).
22 December 2023S/RES/2720 This resolution requested the Secretary-General to appoint a Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator tasked with establishing a UN mechanism for accelerating humanitarian consignments to Gaza. It was adopted with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions (Russia and the US).
23 December 2016S/RES/2334 This resolution condemned Israeli settlements and called for immediate steps to prevent violence against civilians, including acts of terror. It was adopted with 14 votes in favour and a US abstention.

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