Lebanon
Expected Council Action
In October, Security Council members are expected to receive their semi-annual briefing in closed consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, the resolution called for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Lebanon, the disarmament of all militias, and the extension of government control over the whole Lebanese territory. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is the anticipated briefer.
Council members are also likely to watch developments in Lebanon, Israel, and the region closely and evaluate whether additional Council action is required.
Key Recent Developments
The armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has intensified rapidly. On 17 and 18 September, a wave of attacks widely attributed to Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah’s electronic communication devices across Lebanon. The 17 September attacks, which exploded pager devices, killed 12 people, including two children, and injured over 2,323, while the 18 September attacks, which detonated two-way radios, killed 25 people and injured 608, according to figures provided by the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. Explosions of communication devices were also reported in Syria, where 14 people were injured, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based monitoring group with a presence in the country. On 18 September, Lebanese Minister for Foreign Affairs and Emigrants Abdallah Bou Habib condemned the “Israeli attack”, adding that it “represents a blatant assault on Lebanon’s sovereignty and its security”.
The 17-18 September attacks came against the backdrop of the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas and near-daily exchanges of fire across the Blue Line between Israel and Hezbollah and other armed groups following the outbreak of the war on 7 October 2023. Hezbollah has been firing rockets into northern Israel in support of Hamas, while Israel has responded with airstrikes and the assassination of Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon, with the exchanges of fire intensifying progressively in recent months. (The Blue Line is a withdrawal line set by the UN in 2000 to confirm the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. While not representing an international border, the Blue Line acts in practice as a boundary between Lebanon and Israel in the absence of an agreed-upon border between the two states. Any unauthorised crossing of the Blue Line constitutes a violation of resolution 1701, which in 2006 called for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. For background on the war in Gaza, see the brief on “The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question” in our October Monthly Forecast.)
Even before the current escalation, the exchanges of fire had displaced tens of thousands of people both in Israel and Lebanon and resulted in casualties among combatants and civilians on both sides of the Blue Line, with the Associated Press reporting on 19 September that over 500 people had been killed in Lebanon by Israeli strikes since the start of the escalation, most of them combatants but also more than 100 civilians, while at least 23 soldiers and 26 civilians had been killed in northern Israel by strikes from Lebanese territory.
On 18 September, a division of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) relocated from Gaza to the north of Israel and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant announced that Israel was “opening a new phase in the war” to secure the return of its citizens to the north of Israel. In a 19 September speech, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah warned that Israel will face retribution. He said that Israel will not be able to return its displaced residents to their homes through military escalation, adding that the “only way” to achieve this “is to halt the aggression on the Gaza Strip and the West Bank”. In an 18 September letter to the Security Council, Iran, whose ambassador to Lebanon was injured in the 17 September explosions, said that it would “follow up” on the attack by taking the “required measures deemed necessary to respond”.
Following the 17-18 September attacks, Israel carried out large-scale airstrikes on 23 and 24 September, mainly in areas in southern and eastern Lebanon but also targeting some areas of Beirut, on what it said were some 1,600 Hezbollah targets. For its part, Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets into Israel. According to figures cited by Lebanese Minister of Public Health Firass Abiad on 24 September, 569 people were killed in Lebanon on 23 and 24 September, including “[a]t least 50 children, 94 women and four paramedics”. In a 24 September statement, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that one of its staff members and her son were killed in an Israeli airstrike, while a UNHCR contractor was also confirmed dead.
Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon continued on 25 September, while Hezbollah launched a ballistic missile directed at the headquarters of the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service, near Tel Aviv. Israel intercepted the missile.
The Security Council discussed the escalation of hostilities in two meetings on 20 and 25 September called respectively by Algeria and France. The 20 September briefing was followed by closed consultations. At the 25 September briefing, France and the US announced that they had worked on a soon-to-be public proposal for a temporary ceasefire to allow for negotiations. In a joint statement issued the following day, Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the UK, and the US called for an immediate ceasefire of 21 days “across the Lebanon-Israel border to provide space for diplomacy” towards the conclusion of a diplomatic settlement “consistent with” resolutions 1701 and 2735. (Resolution 2735 welcomed a ceasefire proposal for the war in Gaza announced by the US on 31 May.)
A ceasefire seems unlikely, however. On 26 September, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the Israeli military will continue hitting Hezbollah until all of Israel’s goals are achieved, while Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in a social media post that “[t]here will be no ceasefire in the north”. On 26 and 27 September, Israeli bombardments in Lebanon continued, with airstrikes also hitting what Israel described as Hezbollah targets in Beirut, including its headquarters. On 28 September, Hezbollah confirmed that Nasrallah had been killed in an Israeli airstrike the previous day. The attack levelled dozens of buildings in southern Beirut marking “the most intense Israeli strike since the 2006 war in Lebanon”, according to an update by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). While full figures were not available at the time of writing, the casualty rate of the attack is likely to be high given the scale of destruction. In a 28 September statement, Spokesperson for the Secretary-General Stéphane Dujarric called for the “cycle of violence” to immediately stop and urged all sides to “step back from the brink”.
On 30 September, Hezbollah deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem reportedly said that “Hezbollah’s position ‘will not budge an inch’ on the connection between the front in Lebanon and that in Gaza” before adding that Hezbollah is “ready and prepared if Israel wants to launch a ground incursion”. Israeli airstrikes on Lebanese territory continued on 28, 29 and 30 September, with the Wall Street Journal reporting on 30 September that Israel has carried out intelligence-gathering raids in southern Lebanon both recently and in past months in preparation of a possible ground operation. Hezbollah has continued firing rockets towards Israel. Iran has vowed that it, too, will respond to Nasrallah’s assassination, but it has thus far refrained from doing so by force in a likely attempt to avoid being dragged into a direct military confrontation with Israel.
At press time, several media outlets were reporting that an Israeli ground invasion into southern Lebanon was imminent.
On 28 September, Iran, whose general Abbas Nilforushan was killed in the same airstrike that assassinated Nasrallah, called for an emergency Security Council meeting on Lebanon.
According to a 25 September OCHA update, Israeli airstrikes extended to regions previously untouched by the conflict, prompting mass movements of residents toward Beirut and other areas, and severely damaging water infrastructure in areas in eastern and southern Lebanon, cutting off access to clean water for at least 30,000 people. As at 27 September, over 70,000 displaced people were registered in shelters in Lebanon, according to Lebanese authorities. UNHCR said that the displacement is also affecting Syrian refugees in Lebanon, with hundreds of vehicles and large crowds reported at the Syrian border. On 30 September, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said in a social media post that the number of people, both Syrian and Lebanese, who crossed into Syria fleeing Israeli airstrikes had reached 100,000.
On 28 August, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2749, extending the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) for another year, until 31 August 2025. Against the backdrop of the escalation, UNIFIL has remained in contact with the parties, supporting humanitarian access and calling for de-escalation. While peacekeepers remain deployed in UNIFIL’s area of operation, most civilian personnel have been temporarily relocated north of the Litani River. At a 30 September press briefing, Dujarric said that while the peacekeepers remain in position, “the intensity of fighting is preventing their movements and ability to undertake their mandated tasks”.
The political situation in Lebanon remains unchanged. Lebanon has been without a president for almost two years since Michel Aoun’s term ended on 31 October 2022, with opposing politico-sectarian blocks unable to agree on a candidate. The presidential vacuum is compounded by the fact that, over two years since the 15 May 2022 legislative elections, Lebanon’s government remains in caretaker status.
Human Rights-Related Developments
In an 18 September statement addressing the 17-18 September attacks, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said that “[s]imultaneous targeting of thousands of individuals, whether civilians or members of armed groups, without knowledge as to who was in possession of the targeted devices, their location and their surroundings at the time of the attack, violates international human rights law and, to the extent applicable, international humanitarian law”. Türk appealed to all states with influence to take immediate action to prevent further escalation of the conflict. He also called for an independent investigation into the mass explosions, emphasising that those who ordered the attack must be held accountable.
In a 30 September statement, over 30 UN independent experts warned that the escalating armed conflict “risks swallowing up the whole region in a humanitarian and geopolitical catastrophe”. The statement condemned “Israel’s use of the same destructive violence that was applied in Gaza to its attacks on Lebanon” adding that the airstrikes in densely populated areas in Lebanon “fail the tests of distinction, proportionality, precaution and necessity under international humanitarian law and may constitute domicide for mass destruction of homes”. The statement also expressed concern about the harm caused by rockets and missiles launched by Hezbollah into Israel since October 2023.
Key Issues and Options
Returning to a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah and averting a full-scale regional conflagration in the Middle East are pivotal issues for the Security Council. All indicators from the ground point to a different direction, however, with IDF Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi saying on 25 September that the recent Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon were designed to “prepare the ground” for a “possible entry” into Lebanese territory, and Hezbollah’s leadership remaining steadfast in its position that it will continue to fire at Israel as long as the war in Gaza continues.
More broadly, the non-implementation of resolutions 1559 and 1701 remains a key concern. Council members may consider issuing a resolution urging all relevant parties to immediately cease fire, protect civilians, respect international law, and implement Security Council resolutions 1559 and 1701.
That the root causes of the hostility between Israel and Hezbollah and of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remain unaddressed is a long-standing issue. At the same time, a ceasefire in Gaza—however remote the possibility continues to appear—would contribute to de-escalating the situation in Lebanon and in the wider region. Council members could renew their efforts towards that end. (For options in this regard, see the brief “The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question” in our October Monthly Forecast.)
Council Dynamics
Council members ostensibly agree that a full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah must be avoided. However, difficult dynamics are likely to result in ineffective Council action, or inaction, on this file. During the closed consultations that followed the 20 September briefing on Lebanon, Council members discussed issuing press elements that would have condemned the 17-18 September communication devices explosions, called for a de-escalation and a cessation of hostilities, and emphasised the need to protect civilians. It appears, however, that members were eventually unable to agree on press elements due to opposition by the US, Israel’s key ally on the Security Council.
Sharp differences persist in Security Council members’ views of Hezbollah. Some members distinguish between Hezbollah’s political and military wings and have designated only its military wing as a terrorist organisation; other members, including the UK and the US, have listed Hezbollah in its entirety as a terrorist organisation. On the other hand, Russia sees Hezbollah as a legitimate sociopolitical force in Lebanon.
Council members are broadly supportive of UNIFIL. Nevertheless, the negotiations on resolution 2749 proved difficult. The US sought at first to delete, and later to qualify, draft language directly demanding a restoration of the cessation of hostilities across the Blue Line, a move that some members interpreted as being motivated by wanting to avoid restricting Israel’s ability to fight against Hezbollah. Proposals from the US to reduce the length of UNIFIL’s mandate renewal from 12 to six months or, alternatively, linking a one-year renewal to expressing the Council’s intention to revisit UNIFIL’s mandate to “help enable the full implementation of any future diplomatic understanding between the parties” did not find support and were not included. Among other issues, several members were apparently uncomfortable with the Security Council linking UNIFIL’s mandate renewal to an agreement that is yet to materialise and the conditions and format to which they were not privy.
| Security Council Resolutions | |
| 28 August 2024S/RES/2749 | This resolution extended the mandate of UNIFIL for another year until 31 August 2025. |
| 11 August 2006S/RES/1701 | This resolution called for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. It also expanded UNIFIL’s mandate. |
| 2 September 2004S/RES/1559 | This resolution urged withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon, disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias, extension of the Lebanese government’s control over all Lebanese territory and free and fair presidential elections. |
