October 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2024
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EUROPE

Kosovo

Expected Council Action

In October, the Security Council is expected to hold its second briefing of the year on the situation in Kosovo. Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) Caroline Ziadeh will brief on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest report.

Key Recent Developments

There has been no meaningful progress in implementing the commitments that Belgrade and Pristina verbally agreed to in Ohrid, North Macedonia, as part of the EU-proposed Agreement on the Path to Normalisation of 27 February 2023 and its Implementation Annex of 18 March 2023. The 11-point agreement stipulated that neither Kosovo nor Serbia can represent the other in the international sphere and that Serbia will not object to Kosovo’s membership in international organisations. In exchange, Kosovo committed to forming “specific arrangements and guarantees…to ensure an appropriate level of self-management” for the Serbian community in Kosovo. The annex notably emphasised the need for the parties to implement the agreement’s 11 points independently of each other. However, diverging views on the sequencing of the implementation have hindered concrete progress.

European Union (EU) High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell Fontelles invited Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Prime Minister of Kosovo Albin Kurti to Brussels on 26 June for a high-level meeting as part of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. The trilateral meeting, however, did not take place. In a press conference that day, Borrell explained that Kosovo had set three conditions for its participation: the formalisation of the Ohrid Agreement by having both parties sign it; the withdrawal of a letter from former Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabić to the European External Action Service, in which she argued that the Ohrid Agreement is “acceptable solely within the context that does not pertain to the de facto and de jure recognition of Kosovo”; and that Serbia hand over Milan Radoičić, the former vice president of the predominant political party in Serb-majority northern Kosovo, Serbian List, and his affiliates to Kosovo’s judicial authorities.

Radoičić and 44 others were indicted by Kosovo’s Special Prosecutor on 11 September for their alleged involvement in the 24 September 2023 security incident near Banjska/Banjskë village in northern Kosovo. This incident, which saw armed clashes between assailants and Kosovo police, resulted in the death of one police officer, injuries to two others, and the deaths of three armed assailants. While Radoičić later admitted his involvement and resigned from his political position, Serbia has ruled out his extradition.

After the 26 June trilateral meeting fell through, Borrell remarked that Serbia was “not ready to fully meet Kosovo’s conditions, citing constitutional constraints”. He noted Vučić’s willingness to “explore options” regarding Brnabić’s letter and formalising the Ohrid Agreement “in line with past dialogue practices”. Borrell also said that, prior to the cancellation of the meeting, the EU presented a new proposal for the Ohrid Agreement’s implementation. He emphasised, however, that the parties’ views on how the normalisation process should proceed remain far apart.

On 15 May, the EU announced that Kosovo and Serbia had failed to reach a compromise during a trilateral meeting regarding the Central Bank of Kosovo’s new regulation  mandating the use of the euro as the sole currency for cash transactions in Kosovo starting on 1 February. (For background information, see our 7 February What’s in Blue story.)

Following the failed talks, Kosovo police conducted several operations targeting banking facilities in northern Kosovo. On 20 May, they closed and confiscated six offices of the Serbian Postal Savings Bank in four northern municipalities, alleging in a press release that these institutions had been “operating illegally” and that the actions were taken to “establish law and order.” The following day, the EU described the operation as “escalatory” and said it contradicted the “spirit of normalisation.” On 31 May, Ziadeh stressed the importance of avoiding “unilateral actions that could increase tensions, jeopardize stability and undermine trust among communities”.

On 5 August, Kosovo police shut down nine offices of the Serbian national postal service, Pošta Srbije, citing suspicions that these offices were operating without proper licensing and registration. The move was criticised by several international interlocutors, including the EU, the UN, and the US. The EU pointed out that, according to the arrangements regarding telecommunications reached in 2013 and the action plan agreed upon in 2015, both parties had committed to addressing postal services “at a later stage”.

On 30 August, Kosovo police closed several municipal institutions in northern Kosovo that it described as “illegal structures”. The closures were again met with international criticism. The EU stressed that the operation put “the fragile security situation on the ground at risk” and noted that the EU Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) was deployed to monitor the conduct of the operation. Similarly, the US expressed disappointment with the “uncoordinated actions” taken by Kosovo authorities and cautioned that such actions “put Kosovan citizens and [Kosovo Force] soldiers at greater risk, unnecessarily escalate regional tensions, and undermine Kosovo’s reputation as a reliable international partner”. Ziadeh highlighted that such actions “undermine efforts to consolidate trust between different communities and to maintain security, stability and peace”.

Key Issues and Options

The Council’s priority is to maintain stability in Kosovo and promote the de-escalation of tensions in the north. It will continue to monitor diplomatic efforts to advance the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue and any efforts towards reaching a final, legally binding agreement on Kosovo. To this end, the Council could consider pursuing a presidential statement calling on all parties to refrain from unilateral actions and to resolve outstanding issues through the EU-facilitated dialogue.

Council and Wider Dynamics

Council members are united in supporting the EU-facilitated dialogue to establish conditions for the normalisation of relations between Belgrade and Pristina. Deep divisions among permanent members, however, continue to characterise the Council’s approach to the issue.

Among the five permanent Council members, France, the UK, and the US recognise Kosovo’s independence and tend to be supportive of its government; China and Russia do not recognise its independence and strongly support Serbia’s position and its claim to territorial integrity. Six elected members (Guyana, Japan, Malta, the Republic of Korea [ROK], Slovenia, and Switzerland) recognise Kosovo’s independence while three (Algeria, Ecuador, and Mozambique) do not. Kosovo says that Sierra Leone officially recognised its independence in June 2008. According to media reports, however, Serbia claimed in March 2020 that Sierra Leone had withdrawn its recognition, citing a note verbale on the matter from Sierra Leone’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Kosovo disputes the validity of the withdrawal.

The issue of modifying UNMIK’s mandate with a view to its possible drawdown is another point of contention among Council members. The US has been the most vocal advocate for reviewing UNMIK’s operations and ultimately phasing out the mission. Several other Council members—including Japan, Switzerland, the ROK, and the UK—have expressed support for a strategic review and potential modification of UNMIK’s mandate, arguing that the situation on the ground has changed significantly since the mission was established in 1999. Russia has opposed any changes to UNMIK’s mandate or budget reduction, maintaining that the mission continues to play a crucial role.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON KOSOVO
Security Council Meeting Records
22 April 2024S/PV.9612 This was the first regular briefing of the year on the situation in Kosovo.
Secretary-General’s Reports
2 April 2024S/2024/282 This was the Secretary-General’s report on UNMIK.

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