October 2024 Monthly Forecast

AMERICAS

Haiti

Expected Council Action    

In October, the Security Council is expected to renew the Haiti sanctions regime, which was established by resolution 2653 of 21 October 2022. Its current mandate expires on 19 October.   

Additionally, the Council will hold its 90-day briefing on the situation in Haiti. Special Representative and Head of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) María Isabel Salvador will brief the Council on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country and the Secretary-General’s latest report on BINUH. A representative of Kenya may also provide an update on the deployment of the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission, which the Council authorised under Kenya’s leadership through resolution 2699 of 2 October 2023 to help Haiti combat gang activity. The Council most recently renewed that authorisation for one year through resolution 2751 of 30 September. 

Background and Key Recent Developments    

After the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, Haiti descended into a multidimensional crisis characterised by political deadlock, extreme violence, and dire humanitarian conditions. Criminal gangs overran an estimated 80 percent of Port-au-Prince, the capital, employing brutal tactics such as kidnapping, sexual violence, and murder to subdue and subjugate the civilian population. The instability caused widespread displacement and acute food insecurity while exacerbating a governance crisis by preventing elections, which have not taken place in the country since 2016. 

A new surge in gang violence starting in February prompted the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) to facilitate an agreement among Haitian stakeholders on a political transition to stabilise the country’s security situation and restore democratic governance. The agreement established a Transitional Presidential Council (TPC), which was formally installed in April; it comprises seven voting members representing political parties and the private sector and two non-voting observers drawn from civil society and the religious community. The TPC was charged with selecting a new interim prime minister, establishing a provisional electoral council and national security council, and collaborating with the international community to accelerate the deployment of the MSS mission. According to a political agreement signed by TPC members, the transitional period will culminate in the holding of presidential elections by February 2026.  

The TPC has made some progress toward these objectives, including appointing former UN official Garry Conille as interim prime minister, selecting a transitional cabinet, and receiving the first MSS contingents from Kenya in June and July. Other aspects of the TPC’s work have stalled, however, such as the formation of a provisional electoral council, which has reportedly been delayed because of internal disagreements among the civil society sectors expected to serve on the body. Moreover, the TPC itself has been the subject of controversy, as three of its voting members have been implicated in a high-profile corruption scandal that has complicated its work and challenged its perceived legitimacy.   

Meanwhile, Haiti’s security and humanitarian situations remain dire. According to BINUH’s most recent quarterly figures, the mission recorded 1,379 victims of gang-related murders and injuries between 1 April and 30 June. This constitutes a decrease of 45 percent compared to the peak recorded during the previous quarter, although it remains a high figure by historical standards. The violence also continues to have serious humanitarian consequences: the International Organization for Migration (IOM)  found that the number of internally displaced persons in the country increased by 22 percent from 578,000 to more than 700,000 between June and September (following an increase of nearly 60 percent between March and June), while the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) designated the country a “famine hotspot of highest concern” in their latest outlook report covering the period from June to October. In an 18 September press conference, Secretary-General António Guterres described Haiti as “one of the most disastrous humanitarian situations in the whole world”. 

On 30 September, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2751, renewing for one year the MSS mission’s authorisation under Kenya’s leadership. The mission is mandated to provide operational support to the Haitian National Police (HNP) to counter gangs, with the aim of building security conditions conducive to holding free and fair elections. Since Kenya deployed its two first police contingents in June and July, the mission has helped the HNP achieve some success in retaking critical infrastructure in Port-au-Prince that was previously under gang control, but it remains under-resourced, facing funding and equipment shortfalls that limit its ability to scale up its physical presence and take and hold additional territory. (For more information on the MSS mission and resolution 2751, see our 29 September What’s in Blue story.)  

Resolution 2653 imposed a sanctions regime on Haiti, comprising targeted assets freeze, travel ban, and arms embargo measures. Resolution 2699 subsequently expanded the arms embargo from targeted measures applying to designated individuals to a territorial embargo covering the country as a whole, after which resolution 2700 of 19 October 2023 renewed the entire sanctions regime for one year.  

The regime’s designation criteria include engaging in or supporting criminal activities and violence involving armed groups and criminal networks; supporting illicit trafficking and diversion of arms and related materiel; obstructing the delivery of humanitarian assistance to and inside Haiti; and attacking personnel or premises of UN missions and operations or providing support for such attacks. On 27 September, the Security Council’s 2653 Sanctions Committee approved the designation of two additional individuals: Elan Luckson, leader of the “Gran Grif” gang, and Victor Prophane, former member of the Haitian parliament allegedly involved in arms trafficking. While the sanctions committee had previously listed five other gang leaders under the regime, Prophane is the first designated individual from Haiti’s political class.   

The sanctions committee most recently met on 11 September to discuss the final report of its Panel of Experts. The report, which was not yet publicly available at the time of writing, apparently assessed that the arms embargo remains largely ineffective at preventing the flow of illicit arms into Haiti. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) previously issued reports in October 2023 and January 2024, submitted to the Security Council pursuant to resolution 2692, which described the main smuggling routes for firearms trafficking into Haiti, considered the regional dynamics of the illicit trade, and reviewed the domestic characteristics of the arms trade within Haiti.   

Human Rights-Related Developments 

On 20 September, the UN Designated Expert on Human Rights in Haiti, William O’Neill, finished a 12-day visit to the country. In a press conference concluding his trip, he said that “all indicators remain extremely worrying”, highlighting the country’s security situation as the most concerning among them. He reported that sexual violence, used by the gangs as a weapon to control the population, has “drastically” increased in recent months, as has the forcible recruitment of children to carry out attacks against public institutions and the police. Additionally, O’Neill noted that only 28 percent of the country’s health services are functioning normally, prisons are severely overcrowded, and almost five million people are suffering from acute food insecurity. With regard to UN sanctions, O’Neill said that “[d]espite an international embargo, arms and ammunition continue to be smuggled into the country, enabling gangs to carry out large-scale attacks and extend their control and influence over new territories”. 

Key Issues and Options    

The key issue for the Security Council in October is to renew the 2653 sanctions regime on Haiti.  

In light of the most recent findings by the regime’s Panel of Experts and other UN actors concerning the efficacy of the regime’s territorial arms embargo, Council members may consider new measures to further strengthen it. One option apparently recommended by the panel is to widen the scope of the embargo, which under resolution 2699 applies to small arms, light weapons, and ammunition. Council members could expand this list to include other kinds of military equipment, as well as technical assistance, training, and financial support related to military activities. In doing so, members could draw on previously agreed language from resolution 2653, which originally established the arms embargo—then in the form of targeted measures—with this broader purview. 

Additionally, following the adoption of resolution 2751 renewing the MSS mission’s authorisation, Council members may continue to consider measures to secure more sustainable funding and support for the mission from the international community.  

Council Dynamics    

Council members are united in their concern about Haiti’s multidimensional crisis and generally agree on the need for a Haitian-led political solution that addresses both security and socioeconomic challenges. Members are also broadly supportive of UN engagement in Haiti. 

This consensus largely extends to the 2653 sanctions regime, which the Council established and renewed unanimously through resolutions 2653 and 2700, respectively. However, the specific provision to expand the arms embargo from a targeted measure to a country-wide restriction was discussed separately during Council negotiations on resolution 2699 and proved more contentious. The provision was proposed by China and faced some opposition from the US—which is the country of origin for most of the arms illegally smuggled into Haiti, according to UNODC’s reports—although it was eventually incorporated into the text.  

Another point of contention concerns the possible transformation of the MSS mission into a UN peacekeeping operation, which would grant the mission more sustainable funding through the assessed contributions of UN member states. During negotiations on resolution 2751, Ecuador and the US—the Council’s penholders on Haiti—apparently sought to include language expressing the Council’s intention to consider such a transformation, but this was opposed by China and Russia, which referred to the chequered history of past UN peacekeeping operations in Haiti and argued that the country’s political and security conditions were not conducive to a new operation.  

Sign up for SCR emails
UN DOCUMENTS ON HAITI
 
Security Council Resolutions
12 July 2024S/RES/2743 This resolution renewed BINUH’s mandate for one year, until 15 July 2025.
19 October 2023S/RES/2700 This resolution renewed the sanctions regime on Haiti imposed by resolution 2653 of 21 October 2022.
2 October 2023S/RES/2699 This resolution authorised member states to form and deploy a Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission to Haiti to help re-establish security in the country and build conditions conducive to holding free and fair elections.
Secretary-General’s Report
27 June 2024S/2024/508 This was the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on Haiti.

 

Subscribe to receive SCR publications