October 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2024
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AFRICA

Great Lakes Region (DRC)

Expected Council Action 

In October, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region, Huang Xia, is expected to provide the biannual briefing to the Council on the implementation of the 2013 Peace, Security, and Cooperation Framework (PSC-F) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Great Lakes region.

Key Recent Developments

Since the Council’s last meeting on the Great Lakes region, the security situation in eastern DRC has remained volatile despite the 30 July signing of a ceasefire between the DRC and Rwanda in Luanda with Angola’s facilitation. The agreement calls for the ceasefire, which took effect on 4 August, to be monitored by the Ad-Hoc Verification Mechanism established as part of the Luanda process—a regional initiative under the leadership of Angola’s President João Lourenço to ease tensions between the DRC and Rwanda.

One week after the ceasefire entered into force, Lourenço met Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame in Kigali on 11 August during the inauguration ceremony following Kagame’s re-election. He then travelled to Kinshasa on 12 August to meet with DRC President Félix Tshisekedi. During his discussions with the two leaders, Lourenço reportedly followed up on the ceasefire’s implementation and made further proposals to find a lasting solution to the long-standing conflict in eastern DRC. Subsequently, the foreign ministers of the DRC and Rwanda met twice, first from 20 to 21 August and then on 14 September, to discuss Lourenço’s proposal. Between these two meetings, senior intelligence officials from DRC, Rwanda and Angola also reportedly met from 29-30 August in Rubavu, Rwanda, to discuss the details of Angola’s proposal.

The Security Council welcomed the ceasefire agreement in resolution 2746 of 6 August. The resolution authorised the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) to provide operational and logistical support to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), which has operated in the eastern DRC since December 2023. On 17 August, SADC held its ordinary summit in Harare, Zimbabwe, and commended Angola for its role as a mediator.

Nevertheless, clashes between the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) and the armed militia Mouvement du 23 Mars (M23) rebel group continue to be reported in North Kivu, the epicentre of the conflict. The FARDC is supported by various armed militias known locally as Wazalendo (patriots) and SAMIDRC. Reports indicate that the M23 has expanded its control of several areas, besieging Goma, the capital of North Kivu.

The East African Community (EAC) has also been engaged in a regional peace initiative (the Nairobi process) to address the situation in the eastern DRC. However, the Nairobi process has been stuck for some time. The EAC foreign ministers held a retreat in Zanzibar, Tanzania, from 6 to 8 July and recommended convening an EAC summit to revitalise the Nairobi process in coordination with the Luanda process. The ministers also reviewed interstate relations within the community, noting the rising tensions among its members and their negative effects on the EAC integration agenda.

During the retreat, the foreign ministers of DRC and Rwanda, which have been in a diplomatic stand-off because of the situation in eastern DRC, agreed to meet within the framework of the Luanda process, as they have now done several times. The foreign ministers of Burundi and Rwanda also agreed to meet on 31 October to address outstanding issues in their bilateral relations. Relations between the two countries have been especially strained since Burundi decided in January to close its border with Rwanda, accusing it of supporting Burundian armed groups—an allegation Rwanda has denied.

The Office of the Special Envoy for the Great Lakes has been working on non-military measures to address the security situation in the eastern DRC, including through the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) of former combatants. In this regard, a Contact and Coordination Group (CCG) was established in May 2021 composed of representatives from Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. In August, the Office of the Special Envoy, together with the UN Peace and Development Trust Fund, launched the DDR working group of the CCG to promote regional cooperation on DDR.

Key Issues and Options   

A key issue for Council members in October is the security and humanitarian situations in eastern DRC, which continues to be a source of tension among countries of the Great Lakes region. They are likely to reiterate their support for the ongoing regional initiatives under the Luanda and Nairobi processes to find a lasting solution to the situation. They may also be keen to hear from Xia on his diplomatic engagement with countries of the region in support of these efforts. A possible option is for Council members to adopt a press statement welcoming the progress in the Luanda process under Angola’s auspices and urging the parties to stay engaged in efforts to achieve a comprehensive peace agreement.

The need to ensure coordination among the various regional initiatives in the Great Lakes region has been a major issue for Council members. They could be keen to receive updates on the ongoing efforts under the quadripartite process initiated by the African Union (AU) at a summit in June 2023 and involving the EAC, the Economic Community of Central African States, the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region, and SADC. In its 4 March communiqué, the AU Peace and Security Council requested the AU Commission to convene a second quadripartite summit to follow up on the implementation of commitments made during the first summit. At the time of writing, there was no indication when the second summit would take place.

Another important issue is the discussion about the revitalisation of the 2013 PSC-F to address the root causes of instability in the DRC and the Great Lakes region. Council members may wish to follow up on the decisions of the 11th meeting of the Regional Oversight Mechanism (ROM) of the PSC-F in Bujumbura in May 2023 and learn more about preparations for the upcoming ROM meeting in Uganda, which is planned for late 2024, although no date has been set.

Support for regional forces deployed in eastern DRC has been an ongoing issue. The Security Council requested the Secretary-General to report on the implementation of resolution 2746 and for SAMIDRC to report on its activities, including coordination with MONUSCO, by 15 November.

Council Dynamics  

Council members are broadly supportive of addressing the root causes and drivers of conflict in the Great Lakes region. They believe the principles and commitments enshrined in the PSC-F remain relevant and should be respected by the signatory countries. They also support the goal of reinvigorating the PSC-F. Council members agree that there is no military solution to the situation in the eastern DRC and remain fully supportive of the efforts to find a political solution through the ongoing regional initiatives under the Luanda and Nairobi processes. They may welcome the role being played by Lourenço in facilitating talks involving the DRC and Rwanda to ease the tensions between the two countries.

Council members are concerned about the worsening humanitarian and human rights situation in the Great Lakes region, including the massive displacement of people due to the ongoing fighting and violations such as sexual exploitation and abuse in eastern DRC. Some members continue to call for full adherence to international humanitarian law and international human rights law and to stress the need to ensure accountability and justice for human rights abuses and crimes committed in eastern DRC.

The increasing level of hate speech and incitement to violence against Kinyarwanda communities in eastern DRC has raised significant concerns among some Council members.

Council members also continue to highlight the need to address the illegal exploitation of natural resources, which is fuelling the conflict in eastern DRC. They support the implementation of the UN Strategy for Peace Consolidation, Conflict Prevention, and Conflict Resolution in the Great Lakes Region developed by the Office of the Special Envoy for the Great Lakes. One of the key priorities of the strategy is to promote not only sustainable and transparent management of natural resources but also trade and investment.

Security Council Resolutions
6 August 2024S/RES/2746 This resolution authorised MONUSCO to provide logistical and operational support to SAMIDRC and requested the Secretary-General to report on the implementation of this resolution and SAMIDRC to report on its activities, including coordination with MONUSCO, by 15 November.
Secretary-General’s Reports
30 September 2024S/2024/278
Security Council Meeting Records
30 September 2024S/PV.9615

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