October 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2024
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AFRICA

Central African Republic

Expected Council Action

In October, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). Special Representative for the Central African Republic (CAR) and Head of MINUSCA Valentine Rugwabiza is expected to brief.

The mandate of MINUSCA expires on 15 November.

Key Recent Developments

On 27 June, Rugwabiza briefed the Council about MINUSCA’s efforts to expand its footprint to additional localities in southeastern CAR, paving the way for the extension of state authority in the region. She expressed deep concern over the continuous misinformation and disinformation campaigns against MINUSCA, which she said are further complicating the mission’s already challenging operating environment.

When renewing MINUSCA’s mandate in November 2023, the Security Council requested the Secretary-General to conduct an independent strategic review of the mission through broad consultations with the CAR government and other relevant partners, including UN agencies, member states, regional organisations, civil society, and independent experts. The purpose of the review was to provide detailed recommendations regarding the reconfiguration of MINUSCA’s mandate, including a possible transition plan for the mission’s drawdown when conditions are met.

On 26 February, the Secretary-General appointed Edmond Mulet—a former UN official who most recently served as the head of the Joint Investigative Mechanism set up under resolution 2235 of 7 August 2015 to investigate the use of chemical weapons in Syria—to lead the independent strategic review. Mulet visited the CAR in March and held several meetings with President Faustin Touadéra and other relevant stakeholders. The outcome of the strategic review was circulated to Council members on 14 August.

The review provided a contextual analysis of the national, regional, and geopolitical dynamics. It highlighted the proliferation of illegal weapons along the country’s lengthy and porous borders, which has compounded its security challenges and facilitated the exploitation of its natural resources. This situation has created a war economy for many of the armed groups operating in the CAR and the region. The review also noted Russia’s and Rwanda’s expanding influence in the CAR and the declining role of traditional partners in the security and development sectors.

Regarding the mission’s transition and reconfiguration, the review said that “there is currently no desire or request from the national authorities for the drawdown of MINUSCA”, while acknowledging the host country’s desire to see the mission’s mandate adapted to support the CAR government’s early recovery and development initiatives. It also assessed MINUSCA’s mandate as remaining relevant, stressing that its full and effective implementation requires sustained support from the CAR government and the Security Council.

The review recognised that the CAR finds itself at a crossroads—with an encouraging path towards stabilisation, but still facing the risk of a potential relapse. It said that “conditions on the ground do not justify a drawdown of MINUSCA in the short- to mid-term.” Therefore, the review recommended that the mission and the host country initiate discussions on a potential transition plan in 2026, following the presidential and legislative elections expected to take place in 2025-2026. It added that a detailed technical assessment could be conducted at a later stage to support the transition plan.

Regarding the role of “other security personnel” (a term used by the UN to refer to the  Africa Corps, formerly the Wagner Group, a Russian private security company), the review stressed the need to consider how to promote the accountability of such actors through what it called the “Respect, Protect, Remedy” framework for business and human rights as well as other existing voluntary international codes of conduct in situations of armed conflict.

The CAR is preparing to hold local elections in October for the first time since 1988. A budget shortfall remains an ongoing challenge despite recent financial commitments by some partners, such as the EU, to support the election. The Secretary-General’s June report on MINUSCA also mentioned the CAR government’s formal request to the UN to provide electoral assistance for the country’s 2025-2026 elections. In particular, the CAR government seeks MINUSCA’s support in mobilising resources and providing continued technical, operational, logistical, and security support for the local, presidential, and legislative elections.

Sanctions-Related Developments

On 30 July, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2745, lifting the arms embargo on the CAR and renewing until 31 August 2025 the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee (which will henceforth be known as the Panel of Experts pursuant to resolution 2745). The resolution also extended until 31 July 2025, and strengthened, all other targeted sanctions measures against armed groups and associated individuals.

While welcoming the lifting of the arms embargo, CAR’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Francophonie, and Central Africans Abroad, Sylvie Baïpo Temon, expressed readiness to support the panel’s work in addressing the proliferation of weapons and their illicit trafficking across borders.

Key Issues and Options

In October, Council members will be interested in the outcome of the MINUSCA strategic review and its recommendations. The review is expected to inform the upcoming MINUSCA mandate renewal in November. In this regard, the following issues are likely to draw the attention of Council members:

  • MINUSCA’s possible transition, drawdown and reconfiguration;
  • restrictions on MINUSCA’s freedom of movement and the use of uncrewed aerial vehicles (since December 2023, the CAR government has restricted their use, which some Council members argue undermines the mission’s ability to enhance its situational awareness, protect civilians, and ensure the safety and security of peacekeepers);
  • the implementation of the Status of Forces Agreement; and
  • the role of other security personnel, notably the Africa Corps.

The political and security situation in the CAR continues to be a key issue for Council members. They will be keen to hear about progress in implementing the 2019 Political Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation in the CAR and MINUSCA’s support for extending state authority and the disarmament, demobilisation, reintegration and repatriation of former combatants. They might also be interested in developments related to the local elections planned for October and the mission’s operational and logistical support in line with its mandate.

The dire humanitarian situation in the CAR, exacerbated by conflict, flooding, and disease outbreaks, is another important issue for Council members. According to the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), an outbreak of the infectious viral disease Mpox in the CAR was declared in July with new infections reported in Bangui, the capital, and several other towns.

Human rights remain an ongoing issue. MINUSCA’s human rights division prepares an annual report on the human rights situation in the CAR. The last report was released only after the renewal of the MINUSCA mandate in 2023. Council members welcomed the June release of this year’s report in line with resolution 2709 of 15 November 2023, which requested that the report be made available before the next mandate renewal.

A possible option is for Council members to consider issuing a press statement highlighting the importance of local elections in advancing the country’s peace and political processes and expressing concern about the humanitarian and human rights challenges facing the CAR.

Council Dynamics

Council members appreciate MINUSCA’s work and the Special Representative’s efforts in maintaining positive relations with host country authorities. Several members continue to raise concerns, however, about restrictions on the mission’s freedom of movement, particularly on its use of uncrewed aerial vehicles. On the other hand, Russia and the CAR have expressed concerns about armed groups operating drones, which they give as the reason the CAR government suspended all drone flights.

Some Council members, such as France, the US and the UK, have expressed alarm at the increasing disinformation campaigns against MINUSCA. At the Council’s June meeting, Temon, the CAR foreign minister, explained the government’s continued efforts to counter this trend but noted that it should be seen as an expression of public dissatisfaction with the mission’s inability to meet people’s expectations.

Regarding MINUSCA’s mandate renewal in November, Temon underscored the need to adapt it to new priorities and realities on the ground. China noted positively the strategic review’s “recommendations for optimizing and adjusting the mandate and staffing of the Mission, so as to ensure that MINUSCA performs its duties efficiently”.

France is the penholder on the CAR, and Ambassador Amar Bendjama (Algeria) chairs the 2745 CAR Sanctions Committee.

Security Council Resolutions
15 November 2023S/RES/2709 This resolution renews the mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) for another year, until 15 November 2024.
Security Council Meeting Records
27 June 2024S/PV.9673 This was on the situation in the CAR.

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