September 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 August 2024
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MIDDLE EAST

Yemen

Expected Council Action

In September, the Security Council is expected to hold its monthly briefing and consultations on Yemen.

The mandate of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) expires on 14 July 2025.

Key Recent Developments

The Council most recently discussed the situation in Yemen in a briefing and consultations held on 15 August. During the briefing, UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg reiterated his warning that the precarious environment in the Middle East risks drawing the country further into conflict and unravelling the gains made since Yemen’s April 2022 truce. He emphasised that continued attacks by the Houthi rebel group on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and retaliatory US-led strikes against Houthi targets have created an unsustainable situation. In a recent worrying development, the Houthis claimed responsibility for a 21 August attack in the Red Sea against the Greek-flagged crude oil tanker Sounion, reportedly carrying 150,000 tonnes of crude oil. The vessel, whose crew was evacuated, has been on fire since 23 August, raising concerns about a potential environmental catastrophe. At the time of writing, no signs of an oil spill had been reported.

At the 15 August meeting, Grundberg asserted that the regional escalation was taking place in parallel with “real and urgent challenges” inside Yemen. Although the levels of violence along the front lines remain lower than before the 2022 truce, ongoing military preparations and reinforcements by the Yemeni parties and reports of clashes in areas such as Hodeidah and Taiz governorates continue to demonstrate the volatility of the situation, according to the Special Envoy.

Among the major challenges that the county is facing is the persistence of overlapping humanitarian crises. Briefing at the 15 August meeting, Director of the Financing and Partnerships Division of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Lisa Doughten described the devastating effects of torrential rains and flooding that began in March and intensified through early August. She reported that the floods led to the death of approximately 98 people and injuries to more than 600 others. In addition, some 69,500 families were affected, many of which lost their homes and sources of livelihood. Doughten also expressed concern about the spread of cholera in Yemen, noting that the number of suspected cases across the country stood at 147,000 in early August. She warned that cases could rise to more than 250,000 in “just a few weeks” unless response efforts were immediately bolstered and emphasised that additional funding was urgently needed to that end.

Food security continues to deteriorate across the country. A 19 August report by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Technical Working Group in Yemen, which analysed conditions in government-controlled areas, warned that by the end of 2024, an estimated 609,808 children will be acutely malnourished, representing a 34 percent increase compared with the previous year. According to the report, the malnutrition crisis in Yemen is driven by several factors, including ongoing conflict, economic instability, the high prevalence of diseases such as cholera and measles, and limited access to safe drinking water. In a joint statement after the report’s publication, UNICEF and the World Food Programme (WFP) noted that Yemen has been facing some of the highest malnutrition rates in the world and warned that more people could sink into food insecurity if current low levels of humanitarian funding persist.

Doughten said at the 15 August briefing that rates of severe food deprivation in Houthi-controlled areas more than doubled since last year, rising from 17 to 36 percent. She highlighted that families’ struggle with food insecurity has forced 30 percent of girls in Yemen into marriage before the age of 18 and that the number of children out of school, which currently stands at 4.5 million, is likely to rise as they are forced to leave school in order to provide for their households.

Efforts by the UN and its partners to respond to these crises have faced challenges stemming from a lack of funding and a shrinking humanitarian operating space. The Houthis continue to detain 13 Yemeni national staff employed by several UN agencies and offices and more than 50 workers of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and civil society whom the rebel group arrested in early June. In a 19 August statement, Secretary-General António Guterres reiterated his call for the UN staffers’ immediate and unconditional release. He also condemned the 3 August incident in which the Houthis forcibly entered the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) in Sana’a and took control of the premises. The Houthis handed the premises back to UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen Julien Harneis on 19 August, according to the statement.

Key Issues and Options

The destabilising effects on Yemen of regional tensions are a key issue for the Council. Members are following with concern developments related to the 31 July assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. Tehran has blamed Israel for the assassination—for which Israel neither claimed nor denied responsibility—and vowed to retaliate. There are concerns that the Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, could participate in a retaliatory attack, further drawing Yemen into conflict. Council members are likely to continue urging restraint and to call on Yemeni parties to focus on an intra-Yemeni political process for the benefit of their people. Members apparently hope that the recent agreement reached between the Houthis and the Yemeni government to de-escalate the economic warfare that they have been waging against each other could provide momentum for the parties to re-engage on the political process.

Addressing humanitarian needs in the country, where 18.2 million people require assistance and protection services, remains a priority. Council members could consider ways to increase attention on humanitarian funding shortfalls, particularly during the UN General Assembly’s High-level Week, which will take place between 23 and 27 September. An option would be to encourage member states to consider initiatives to enhance financial support, such as a pledging conference. In light of the severe effects on children of the humanitarian crisis, Council members may also consider inviting a briefer from UNICEF or a relevant NGO to their next meeting on Yemen who can speak about concrete steps that the international community could take to address the situation.

Council Dynamics

Yemen is an issue on which Council members have maintained general unity in support of UN mediation to achieve a sustainable resolution to the conflict. The Red Sea crisis, however, has produced some notable divisions. The P3 members (France, the UK, and the US) have criticised the Houthis’ destabilising actions, while Council members such as Algeria, China, and Russia emphasise that ending the conflict in Gaza is critical to resolving the crisis in the Red Sea and preventing further regional escalation.

The P3 often accuse Iran of supplying weapons to the Houthis in contravention of the arms embargo imposed on the group through resolution 2216 of 14 April 2015. These members have raised concerns that Iranian ships have travelled to Hodeidah Port since October 2023 without informing the UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism for Yemen (UNVIM), which provides clearance for and inspects ships travelling to Houthi-controlled ports to ensure compliance with the arms embargo. In addition, US officials have alleged that the Houthis are considering providing weapons to the Somali terrorist group Al-Shabaab. At the 15 August Council meeting, the UK expressed concern over the reported growing links between the two groups, calling on the relevant Security Council sanctions committees to coordinate their efforts to “counter this worrying trend”.

The US has called for stronger Council action to impede Iran’s supply of arms to the Houthis, including by strengthening UNVIM, which was established in 2016 through an agreement between the UN and the Yemeni government and relies on voluntary funding. Further punitive measures by the Council against the Houthis or Iran appear unlikely, however, given Council dynamics. Russia traditionally seeks to remove references to the Houthis and is reluctant to single them out in Council products. A red line for Russia has also been identifying Iran as violating the arms embargo against the Houthis.

The UK is the penholder on Yemen. The US and Japan have served as co-penholders on the Red Sea crisis. Ambassador Joonkook Hwang (Republic of Korea) chairs the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN

Security Council Meeting Records
15 August 2024S/PV.9707 This was a briefing on Yemen, held on 15 August 2024.

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