September 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 August 2024
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ASIA

Afghanistan

Expected Council

In September, the Security Council will convene for its quarterly open briefing on Afghanistan. Special Representative and Head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Roza Otunbayeva and UN Women Executive Director Sima Sami Bahous are expected to brief. A civil society representative may brief as well. Closed consultations are scheduled to follow the briefing.

UNAMA’s mandate expires on 17 March 2025.

Key Recent Developments

On 21 June, Otunbayeva; Lisa Doughten, the Director of the Financing and Partnership Division of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA); and Manizha Wafeq, the co-founder of the Afghanistan Women’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry, briefed the Council. Otunbayeva said that in UNAMA’s consultations with Afghan people, there is broad agreement that the de facto authorities should not be recognised “until the issues of women’s rights, girls’ education and an acceptable constitution” are addressed. Doughten noted that approximately 23.7 million people in Afghanistan—more than half the population—need humanitarian assistance. She described how the adverse effects of climate change, manifested by the increased number and intensity of extreme weather events, had exacerbated the humanitarian situation in the country. Wafeq described the severe restrictions that the Taliban authorities had imposed on women’s rights, including in the educational and employment spheres, and asserted that “the participation and rights of Afghan women are essential and non-negotiable”.

In a 15 August press release, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) observed that Afghanistan is the “only country in the world where secondary and higher education is strictly forbidden to girls and women”, with 1.4 million girls deliberately deprived of secondary education since the Taliban took power in 2021.

From 30 June to 1 July, the UN convened the third meeting of Special Envoys and Special Representatives on Afghanistan on 30 June and 1 July in Doha, Qatar. Taliban officials participated, which they had not in the first two Doha meetings, in May 2023 and in February. Over 25 countries and international organisations took part in the meeting. The discussion focused on two tracks: economic matters (including developing the private sector) and counter-narcotics. As an outgrowth of the meeting, working groups are expected to be established on private sector economic matters and counter-narcotics that will develop lines of communication between the Taliban and donor countries and states in the region. Civil society representatives (including women) were excluded from the discussion.

Briefing the press following the meeting, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, who represented the UN, indicated that although the de facto authorities (that is, the Taliban) would not “sit across the table with Afghan civil society in this format…they heard very clearly the need to include women and civil society in all aspects of public life”.

The Taliban released “The Law on the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice” on 21 August, which restricts women from speaking, singing, and showing their faces and bodies in public. Special Representative Otunbayeva issued a statement on 25 August in which she asserted that the new law is a “distressing vision for Afghanistan’s future”.

On 21 August, the Taliban barred Richard Bennett, the UN Human Rights Council’s Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan, from entering the country. Abdul Qahar Balkhi, a foreign ministry spokesman for the Taliban, claimed that Bennett’s reports “are based on prejudices and anecdotes” harmful to the interests of Afghanistan and its people.

On 12 July, extremists from the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group, which is affiliated with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), reportedly killed eight Pakistani soldiers in a suicide attack on a military base in Bannu, Pakistan. Pakistan has accused the Taliban of giving refuge to the TTP in Afghanistan, including at a 19 July press briefing by its Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Taliban has denied these accusations.

The Taliban announced on 17 August that it had signed agreements worth $2.5 billion in trade and investment with neighbouring Uzbekistan. These agreements were finalised during a visit of Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov to Afghanistan.

On 21 August, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) accepted the credentials of Badruddin Haqqani as the Taliban’s ambassador to the UAE. The UAE is only the second country to accept diplomatic credentials from a Taliban envoy, after China did so on 30 January.

Women, Peace and Security

On 13 August, UN Women issued a policy paper taking stock of the effects of three years of Taliban rule on Afghan women and girls. The paper aimed to alert the international community about the consequences of “diminished attention to the women’s rights crisis and limited investments in women’s resilience” in Afghanistan. It said that three years of edicts, statements and decrees by the de facto authorities have “targeted the rights, lives and bodies of women and girls, closing spaces for them” in their households and communities as well as nationally. None of these decrees has been reversed, with the paper noting that Afghan women and international human rights advocates increasingly refer to the situation of women and girls in Afghanistan as “gender apartheid”.

The paper identified several actions and principles for the international community, such as supporting women-led civil society organisations through long-term flexible funding and committing to assigning at least 30 percent of all funding for Afghanistan to initiatives focused on gender equality and women’s rights. It said that, from 2005 to 2020, 80 percent of peace negotiations did not include Afghan women, noting that the “legacy of decades of women’s exclusion from key discussions and agreement” has resulted in “a pathway that continues today”. As a result, the paper called for involving women in all decision-making forums that concern the future of Afghanistan and warned against the normalisation of discriminatory practices as well as “actions that could unintentionally support or normalize the Taliban’s discriminatory policies, norms and values”.

Key Issues and Options

How to engage with the Taliban authorities on security and humanitarian issues is a key issue for the Council. Council members could consider inviting DiCarlo to brief them on the formation and envisioned activities of the working groups arising from the third Doha meeting and on any plans for future meetings of Special Envoys and Special Representatives on Afghanistan, including with the participation of the Taliban.

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan is a significant issue for the Council. An informal meeting with humanitarian organisations working in Afghanistan could allow Council members to learn more about the problems facing those working to deliver aid in the country while also providing an opportunity to consider whether there is anything the Council can do to help manage these challenges.

The human rights situation in Afghanistan, particularly for women and girls, is another major issue. Council members could hold an informal meeting with representatives of UN Women, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan, and civil society to discuss how the Council can exert pressure on the Taliban regarding its practices and policies that restrict human rights.

The Council could also consider reviewing the 1988 Afghanistan sanctions regime, which, apart from the humanitarian exception established by resolution 2615, has not been updated since the Taliban seized power in August 2021. Such a review could analyse whether the regime is fit for purpose or whether it should be updated in light of current circumstances.

The terrorist threat in Afghanistan is another key concern. The Council could meet with a counter-terrorism expert, which would give members a chance to discuss possible options for bolstering the Council’s efforts to manage the threat posed by terrorism in Afghanistan.

Council Dynamics

While Council members are generally united in their desire to see a prosperous, peaceful Afghanistan free from terrorism and ruled by an inclusive government, they have been divided over how to achieve this goal.

Some members, including the P3 (France, the UK, and the US) and other like-minded states, have argued that the Taliban must adhere to international norms if they want to obtain international recognition and receive economic and development aid from the international community. Several of these members appear to favour maintaining pressure on the Taliban, particularly regarding their policies and practices that violate the rights of women and girls.

China and Russia, on the other hand, have contended that the international community should provide assistance to Afghanistan without linking it to other issues, such as human rights, and appear to prefer dialogue and engagement with the Taliban without any increased pressure. China has sent an ambassador to Kabul and, on 30 January, became the first country to accept diplomatic credentials from a Taliban envoy. Beijing has emphasised, however, that it has not officially recognised the Taliban regime as Afghanistan’s government. Russia invited the Taliban to its economic forum in St. Petersburg, which took place from 5 to 8 June, and is also considering removing the Taliban from its list of banned terrorist organisations.

Council members considered issuing a press statement critical of the release of “The Law on the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice” on 21 August. However, the statement was not agreed, as two members questioned the value of such a product at the current time; in this regard, they reportedly maintained that the law was an internal issue, that UNAMA was still studying its implications, and that other Council products had already noted the challenge to women’s rights in the country.

Japan is the penholder on Afghanistan while Ecuador is the chair of the 1988 Sanctions Committee.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN

Security Council Resolution
17 March 2024S/RES/2727 This resolution extended the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) until 17 March 2025.
Security Council Meeting Record
21 June 2024S/PV.9663 This was a meeting on Afghanistan.

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