August 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 July 2024
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MIDDLE EAST

Yemen

Expected Council Action

In August, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Yemen. UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg and a representative of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs are expected to brief. The Head of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), Major General Michael Beary, will brief in consultations.

Key Recent Developments

Attacks by the Houthi rebel group on Israel and commercial shipping in the Red Sea and surrounding waterways threatened a further escalation of violence in Yemen. On 19 July, a Houthi-claimed drone attack hit a residential building in Tel Aviv, killing one civilian and injuring at least ten others. According to Israeli authorities, the strike was carried out by an Iranian model of a Samad-3 uncrewed aerial vehicle that had been adapted for long-distance flights. It was the first deadly Houthi attack against Israel, which had intercepted multiple drones and missiles that the group launched since October 2023 in response to its military campaign in Gaza that followed the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks against Israel.

On 20 July, Israel carried out retaliatory airstrikes in the Hodeidah Port area, killing nine people and injuring 83 others, according to the Houthi-run Ministry of Health. This marked the first publicly acknowledged Israeli strike inside Yemeni territory. Israel claimed that it had struck sites used for military purposes, saying that Iran has been using Hodeidah Port to supply weapons to the Houthis. In a 20 July statement, Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sare’e maintained that the bombing struck civilian targets, including a power station that supplies the city of Hodeidah with electricity and fuel tanks. He said that the Houthis will continue to conduct operations against Israel. Meanwhile, continuing US-led strikes against Houthi targets since January have not appeared to slow Houthi attacks against commercial shipping.

The Council held a briefing on the escalation on 22 July, which France, the UK, and the US requested following a letter to the Council from Israel on the attack against Tel Aviv. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo and Major General Beary briefed. DiCarlo noted that the extent of the damage to Hodeidah Port had yet to be confirmed, though local authorities had reported that the port was functioning at a limited capacity. Hodeidah Port serves as the entry point for the majority of Yemen’s critical imports, such as food, and the strikes heightened concerns about damage that could worsen Yemen’s humanitarian crisis.

The next day, the Council held its monthly briefing and consultations on Yemen. Grundberg expressed concerns about Yemen’s trajectory of escalation, which had reached “a new and dangerous level”. However, in a rare recent positive development, Grundberg announced an agreement reached the day before between the Houthis and the Yemeni government to de-escalate the economic warfare that the sides have been waging against each other. According to the agreement, the parties committed to several measures and requested the UN’s support in implementing them. Those measures called for:

  • cancelling all the recent decisions and procedures against banks by both sides and refraining in the future from any similar decisions or procedures;
  • resuming Yemenia Airways’ flights between Sana’a and Jordan and increasing the number of flights to three per day, as well as operating flights from Sana’a to Cairo and India daily or as needed;
  • addressing the administrative, technical, and financial challenges faced by Yemenia Airways; and
  • initiating meetings to discuss all economic and humanitarian issues based on the UN roadmap for an inter-Yemeni political process.

Grundberg thanked Saudi Arabia for its role in brokering the deal, while underscoring the need for the parties to engage in good faith and address underlying issues. The deal followed the revocation of the licenses of six Yemeni banks by the government-controlled Central Bank of Yemen on 7 July for failing to relocate their offices from the Houthi-held city of Sana’a to Aden. The move threatened to exclude Houthi-held areas from using the SWIFT banking system.

Grundberg and Acting Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Joyce Msuya, who briefed as well, also highlighted the continued detention of 13 UN staff and of dozens of other Yemeni nationals from local and international aid organisations, civil society and the private sector whom the Houthis arrested in early June. They repeated UN demands for their immediate release. Msuya additionally drew attention to the importance of Hodeidah Port, which she called a “lifeline” for millions of Yemenis. “There are no viable alternatives to receive commercial imports at scale”, she said, adding, “Infrastructure that plays such an indispensable role must be spared”.

Earlier, on 6 July, the Supervisory Committee on the Implementation of the Detainees’ Agreement met in Oman. According to a statement by the Office of the Special Envoy, which co-chairs the committee with the International Committee of the Red Cross, the talks led to a “significant breakthrough”, with the sides reaching an understanding on releasing Mohamed Qahtan—a political leader aligned with the Yemeni government whom the Houthis have held incommunicado since 2015. The statement added that the sides had agreed to a follow-up meeting to finalise the list of detainees to be freed and the details of Qahtan’s release.

On 8 July, the Council renewed the mandate of UNMHA, in resolution 2742, until 14 July 2025. 

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 9 July, UN Human Rights spokesperson Jeremy Laurence said that the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) remains extremely concerned about the well-being of the 13 UN staff and several employees of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) who have been held incommunicado for more than a month by Houthis. Additionally, two UN staff members have been in prolonged detention since November 2021 and August 2023, according to Laurence.

He called on those states and entities with influence over the Houthis to help secure the safe and prompt release of all detained UN and NGO staff. Voicing concern over the conditions of captivity, the spokesperson also urged the de facto authorities to ensure that those detained are treated with full respect for their human rights and are able to contact their families and legal representatives.

The 13 UN staff detained include six who work for OHCHR; one each from the Office of the Special Envoy in Yemen, the UN Development Programme, UNICEF, the World Food Programme, and the World Health Organization; and two from the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).

Key Issues and Options

Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and Israel, retaliatory US-led strikes, and now Israeli strikes on Houthi targets are key issues. The crisis has frozen Yemen peace talks: Omani-facilitated talks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia on a peace agreement and Grundberg’s efforts to develop a roadmap for a ceasefire and an inter-Yemeni political process. The stalled processes and the risk to the gains that had been made in talks since Yemen’s April 2022 truce remain key issues.

Members are likely to monitor developments. They could encourage the parties to engage in good faith with the Special Envoy to implement the economic measures that they have committed to and to use the momentum of this process to refocus on a broader political process.

The humanitarian situation in Yemen, where 18.2 million people require assistance and protection services, remains a key issue. In addition to the importance of Hodeidah Port for responding to this need, Msuya also highlighted at the 23 July briefing worsening food insecurity because of the pause in food assistance in the Houthi-controlled north since December 2023 and deteriorating economic conditions across the country.

The detention of humanitarian staff could further undermine the ability of the UN and other partners to provide assistance. The Yemen sanctions designation criteria include the obstruction or impediment of humanitarian assistance. Council members could consider expanding sanctions designations on Houthi officials if they do not release the detained personnel.

Another issue, related to the sanctions regime, is the reports that Iranian ships have travelled to Hodeidah Port since October 2023 without informing the UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism (UNVIM), which provides clearance for and inspects ships travelling to Houthi-controlled ports to ensure compliance with the arms embargo against the group. These reports follow the end of ship inspections by the Saudi-led coalition, which it also conducted on vessels travelling to Hodeidah, after it began peace talks with the Houthis in October 2022.

Council Dynamics

Yemen is an issue on which Council members have maintained general unity in support of UN mediation to achieve a sustainable resolution to the conflict. The Red Sea crisis, however, has produced some notable divisions, despite all members having called for an end to the Houthi attacks on shipping and being concerned about the consequences for maritime security and Yemen’s peace process.

Algeria, China, and Russia abstained on the vote adopting resolution 2722 in January on the Red Sea crisis because of their concerns over its wording, particularly on the right of states to defend their merchant vessels, which they argue does not reflect international law. China and Russia have also criticised the US-led strikes against the Houthis on Yemeni territory, since, as they contend, exceed the mandate of the resolution, which did not authorise such attacks. Moreover, the three countries regularly highlight the need to end the war in Gaza as the best way to resolve the crisis in the Red Sea.

The US has called for the Council to take further action to impede Iran’s supply of arms to the Houthis, including by strengthening UNVIM, which was established in 2016 through an agreement between the UN and the Yemeni government and relies on voluntary funding. Further punitive measures by the Council against the Houthis or Iran would seem unlikely, however, given Council dynamics. Traditionally, Russia seeks to streamline references to the Houthis and is reluctant to single them out in Council products. A red line for Russia has also been Council products identifying Iran as violating the arms embargo against the Houthis.

The renewal of UNMHA in July proved uncontentious. No members proposed changes to the mandate, leading to swift agreement on the renewal.

The UK is the penholder on Yemen. The US and Japan have served as co-penholders on the Red Sea crisis. Ambassador Joonkook Hwang (Republic of Korea) chairs the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN

Security Council Resolutions
8 July 2024S/RES/2742 This resolution renewed the mandate of UNMHA until 8 July 2025.
10 January 2024S/RES/2722 This resolution demanded that the Houthis immediately cease all attacks on merchant and commercial vessels and took note of the right of member states, in accordance with international law, to
defend their vessels from attacks, including those that undermine navigational rights and freedoms.

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