August 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 July 2024
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MIDDLE EAST

Syria

Expected Council Action  

In August, the Security Council will hold a meeting on the political process and the humanitarian situation in Syria.  

Key Recent Developments 

On 30 June, anti-refugee protests broke out in central Türkiye following a reported incident of sexual harassment of a child in the city of Kayseri, allegedly by a Syrian refugee. According to media reports, Turkish police arrested at least 474 people for targeting properties and assets belonging to Syrian refugees in Türkiye. In response, demonstrations erupted the next day (1 July) in several parts of north-west Syria, including Afrin, al-Bab, Azez, and Jarablus. The protests reportedly turned violent, leading to clashes with Turkish armed forces present inside Syria, in which at least eight people were killed and more than 20 others injured.   

In a 2 July press briefing, Spokesperson for the Secretary-General Stéphane Dujarric said that protesters reportedly attacked vehicles, buildings, and commercial trucks entering the Bab al-Salam crossing on the Syria-Türkiye border. He noted that some medical teams operating in Afrin and al-Bab and several non-governmental organisations had suspended their operations. He also reported that fuel shortages had led to power outages and communications breakdowns.  

In response to persistent insecurity, Turkish authorities closed all three crossings on the Syria-Türkiye border—Bab al-Hawa, Bab al-Salam, and Al Ra’ee—used by UN agencies and partners to conduct humanitarian operations. However, the Bab al-Hawa crossing was re-opened on 3 July while the other crossings resumed operations on 8 July.  

On 10 July, the Syrian government announced its decision to extend its authorisation for the use of the Bab al-Hawa border crossing until 13 January 2025. The Syrian government’s authorisation for the use of the Bab al-Salam and Al Ra’ee border crossings is scheduled to expire on 13 August.   

Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Syria Adam Abdelmoula travelled to the Al Hasakeh Governorate in northeast Syria from 7 to 10 July. During his visit, Abdelmoula met with various stakeholders and visited several humanitarian projects, including a water filtration station installed in Hasakeh city. He also visited camps for refugees and internally displaced persons, including Al Hol—which hosts more than 41,000 people, 90 percent of whom are women and children, according to the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). At the end of his visit, he highlighted the growing humanitarian needs in the area due to severe water shortages, destruction of civilian infrastructure, climate shocks, displacement, and economic decline. He also stressed the need to complement emergency assistance activities with early recovery programming.  

Despite the rising humanitarian needs across the country, securing funding has been a challenge for the UN and partner agencies. At the time of writing, Syria’s 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP), which called for $4.07 billion, was only 20.5 percent funded.  

Syria and Türkiye have apparently indicated a renewed interest in pursuing diplomatic rapprochement. Since last year, Russia and Iran have led efforts to mend ties between the two countries. The foreign ministers of the four countries met in Moscow on 10 May 2023 to advance these efforts; however, the talks apparently stalled, with Syria insisting on the withdrawal of Turkish armed forces from northern Syria. (For background, see the Syria brief in our June 2023 Monthly Forecast.) It appears that Iraq has also made efforts recently to mediate between the two sides. According to media reports, in a 31 May press interview, the Iraqi prime minister acknowledged these efforts and said that Iraq is trying to create grounds for reconciliation and dialogue between the two countries. 

During a 26 June meeting with the Russian President’s Special Representative on Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad expressed his openness to all initiatives regarding Syrian-Turkish relations, based on respect for Syrian sovereignty. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has similarly expressed his desire to improve relations with Syria. In a 7 July statement, Erdogan said that he may extend an invitation to al-Assad to visit Türkiye “at any moment”. According to media reports, the local council of the city of al-Bab in eastern Aleppo governorate announced in June the opening of the Abu al-Zandeen crossing, which connects the area controlled by the Syrian National Army—a coalition of armed groups allegedly backed by Türkiye—and the region under the control of the Syrian government. The announcement reportedly came against the backdrop of Turkish-Russian efforts to normalise economic relations between opposition-held areas and regime-controlled territories. 

Airstrikes, allegedly by Israel, continue to target sites across Syria. On 14 July, airstrikes reportedly hit several military sites and a residential building in Damascus, killing one Syrian soldier and injuring three others. Media reports quoted Israeli Defense Forces as saying that the strikes were conducted in response to two drones that were launched from Syria towards the north of Eilat, Israel, the previous day (13 July). On 15 July, an airstrike that hit a car on the al-Saboura highway near Damascus killed a Syrian businessman, Muhammad Bara Qatirji, who reportedly had ties to the Syrian government as well as Iran-backed militias in the region, including Hezbollah, and was sanctioned by the US for “facilitating shipments of fuel and weapons to the Syrian regime”. 

The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) continues to pose a significant security threat in Syria. In a 16 July statement on X (formerly Twitter), the US Central Command said that ISIS claimed 153 attacks in Iraq and Syria during the first half of this year; if sustained at the current pace, the number of attacks in 2024 will more than double the number claimed by Da’esh in 2023. Between January and June, the US and the Syrian Democratic Forces—a primarily Kurdish group opposing the Syrian government—conducted 59 operations, which resulted in the deaths of 14 Da’esh operatives and the detention of 92 others.   

Human Rights-Related Developments 

In a 1 July statement, Alice Jill Edwards, the UN Special Rapporteur on torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment, called on Syrian authorities to implement the provisional measures ordered by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on 16 November 2023 and to take action to eradicate all forms of torture and ill-treatment in the country. She raised alarm about reports indicating that torture continues to be practiced on a large scale in Syria in flagrant disregard for the lives, and the physical and psychological health of thousands of individuals who are in detention centres operated by the Syrian government. 

In its 16 November 2023 provisional measures, the ICJ ordered Syria to “take all measures within its power to prevent acts of torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment and ensure that its officials, as well as any organizations or persons which may be subject to its control, direction or influence, do not commit any acts of torture or other acts of cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment”. (For background and more information, see the Syria brief in our December 2023 Monthly Forecast.) 

On 3 July, during the 56th session of the Human Rights Council (HRC), Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro, Chair of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria, said that the long-running conflict in Syria and its consequences have become further entrenched, adding that “impunity and lawlessness have shaped a grim reality for all Syrians, with no end in sight”. He highlighted several instances of abuses, including monetary extortion of civilians by security forces and militias, incommunicado detention and enforced disappearances, the detention of Syrian refugees returning from Lebanon, and drug trafficking and smuggling involving both pro- and anti-government factions. Pinheiro urged member states to act urgently in three critical areas: repatriating their nationals detained in north-east Syria since 2019; reviewing the imposition of unilateral coercive measures on Syria to mitigate their unintended consequences on civilians; and increasing support for Syria’s 2024 HRP. 

Key Issues and Options  

A key issue for Council members is the ongoing hostilities in Syria. Continuing violence and the lack of accountability threaten to destabilise the country further. The deteriorating socioeconomic conditions in the country are also of concern. Determining how the Council can address the spillover effects of the situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and de-escalate rising tensions in the region, including in Syria, is an important issue for the Council.   

One option would be for the co-chairs of the Informal Expert Group on the Protection of Civilians (Switzerland and the UK) to hold a meeting on the situation in Syria to receive briefings from relevant UN entities about the impact of the conflict on civilians.  

Another important issue for the Council is maintaining international attention on the situation in Syria when its focus has largely shifted to other crises, such as those in Gaza and Ukraine.  

As well, a key issue is how to alleviate the growing humanitarian needs throughout the country. Council members could consider adopting a press statement calling on the international community to scale up the humanitarian response in Syria.   

The need to break the underlying political impasse in the country and support the Special Envoy’s work in this regard is another key issue. The Council could consider holding a private meeting with relevant stakeholders to discuss the impediments to the resumption of the Syrian Constitutional Committee, including the issue of venue, and support Pedersen’s efforts to reinvigorate the political process. (A private meeting is a closed, formal meeting format; unlike closed consultations, non-Council member states are allowed to participate in this format.)  

Council Dynamics   

Over the years, Syria has been one of the most divisive files on the Council’s agenda. China and Russia are supportive of the Syrian government, emphasising the need to respect the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and drawing connections between unilateral coercive measures on Syria and the challenging humanitarian and economic situations in the country. In contrast, the P3 (France, the UK, and the US) and other like-minded members criticise the government for violating international humanitarian law and human rights law, arbitrarily detaining people, not engaging meaningfully in political dialogue, and not creating conditions for the safe and voluntary return of refugees.   

Russia has consistently criticised the presence of US forces in Syria, accusing them of destabilising the country. The US maintains that its deployment of forces in the country remains focused on fighting Da’esh and has blamed Damascus for allowing Iranian-backed militias to operate in the country.  

Council members also have diverging views on normalising ties with the Syrian government. While the US and like-minded members continue to oppose engagement with the government, China and Russia have advocated for the normalisation of ties. In a 2 July press briefing, the US State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel said that the US would not normalise relations with the Assad government “absent authentic progress toward a political solution to the underlying conflict”. He added that the US had been clear with regional partners, including Türkiye, that any engagement must focus on human rights, improving the humanitarian conditions and the security situation for all Syrians. 

Switzerland is the penholder on the Syria humanitarian file.  

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UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA
 

Security Council Resolutions
18 December 2015S/RES/2254 This was the first resolution focused exclusively on a political solution to the Syrian crisis. It was adopted unanimously.

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