August 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 July 2024
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Status Update since our July Forecast  

The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question  

On 2 July, the Security Council held an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9678). Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator for Gaza Sigrid Kaag briefed. 

On 17 July, the Security Council convened its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov chaired the meeting. To accommodate all speakers, the meeting was resumed and completed on 19 July (S/PV.9678 and Resumptions I and II). Earle Courtenay Rattray, Chef de Cabinet of the UN Secretary-General, briefed.  

On 26 July, the Security Council held a briefing on the humanitarian situation in Gaza under “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” agenda item (S/PV.9694). Deputy Commissioner-General (Operational Support) of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) Antonia Marie De Meo and the Deputy Special Coordinator and Resident Coordinator at the Office of the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process (UNSCO) Muhannad Hadi briefed. The meeting was called by Algeria, China, and Russia. 

On 31 July, the Security Council held an emergency briefing under “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” agenda item to discuss developments related to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran (S/PV.9696). The meeting was called by Algeria, China, and Russia following a request from Iran (S/2024/584). Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed. 

Myanmar Meeting under “Any Other Business”  

On 3 July, Council members discussed the humanitarian situation in Myanmar under “any other business”. The Republic of Korea (ROK), the UK, and the US requested the meeting after a World Food Programme (WFP) warehouse was looted and burned in the town of Maungdaw in Rakhine State on 22 June. Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Joyce Msuya briefed. 

Democratic Republic of the Congo  

On 8 July, the Security Council held a briefing and consultations on the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), including the work of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) (S/PV.9681). Special Representative of the Secretary-General in the DRC and Head of MONUSCO Bintou Keita briefed. The DRC and Rwanda also participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. 

During the meeting, Council members discussed the implementation of MONUSCO’s disengagement plan, agreed with the Congolese government and endorsed by the Security Council in resolution 2717 of 19 December 2023. At the time of writing, Council members were negotiating a draft text proposed by France and Sierra Leone, co-penholders on the DRC, to authorise MONUSCO to provide limited operational and logistical support to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC). 

“Stepping Up Preventive Action: From Environmental Challenges to Opportunities for Peace”  

On Monday (8 July), Council members held an Arria-formula meeting on “Stepping up Preventive Action: From Environmental Challenges to Opportunities for Peace”. Slovenia organised the meeting together with Guyana, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and Sierra Leone. The briefers were Amy Pope, the Director-General of the International Organization for Migration (IOM); Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for the Horn of Africa Hanna Serwaa Tetteh; and Nohora Alejandra Quiguantar, the founder of Tejiendo Pensamiento-Indigenous Women for the Climate in Colombia.  

Ukraine  

On 9 July, the Security Council held an emergency meeting on Ukraine (S/PV.9682). Ecuador and France (supported by Slovenia, the UK, and the US) requested the meeting following a series of Russian missile attacks targeting multiple cities across Ukraine on 8 July, including a strike that caused significant damage to the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital in Kyiv. Acting Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Joyce Msuya and Volodymyr Zhovnir, a cardiac surgeon and activist, briefed the Council. 

On 25 July, the Council convened for an open briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9693). Russia requested the meeting to discuss the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine. Deputy to the High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Adedeji Ebo briefed. 

Cyprus  

On 11 July, Council members held closed consultations on the situation in Cyprus. Special Representative and Head of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) Colin Stewart briefed the Council, presenting the Secretary-General’s report on his good offices in Cyprus (S/2024/526) and on UNFICYP (S/2024/527).  

Colombia  

On 11 July, the Security Council held an open briefing on Colombia (S/PV.9683). Special Representative and Head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu briefed on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission (S/2024/509). The Council was also briefed by Diego Tovar, an ex-combatant from the former rebel group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP) and signatory to the Final Agreement for Ending the Conflict and Building a Stable and Lasting Peace concluded in 2016 between the government of Colombia and the former FARC-EP. Colombian President Gustavo Petro Urrego represented his country at the Council meeting for the first time since taking office in August 2022. The meeting also marked the first time that a former FARC-EP member briefed the Council in person. 

On 18 July, Council members issued a press statement on Colombia (SC/15768), in which they re-emphasised the importance of ensuring the comprehensive implementation of the 2016 agreement. Among other issues, they expressed concern about continuing violence, noting that conflict-related violence, including conflict-related sexual violence, as well as violations against children, such as recruitment and use, continue to disproportionately affect indigenous and Afro-Colombian communities. The statement referenced the Colombian government’s dialogue efforts with armed groups operating in the country, calling for the strengthening of the ceasefire with the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), including “the return to prior commitments to protect the civilian population with a view to improve security in the territories”.  

Haiti  

On 12 July, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2743, renewing the mandate of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) for another year, until 15 July 2025. 

On 3 July, the Council received its regular quarterly briefing from Special Representative and Head of BINUH María Isabel Salvador on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country and on the Secretary-General’s latest report on BINUH. Haiti’s interim prime minister Garry Conille participated in the meeting under rule 39 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. Canada (on behalf of the Economic and Social Council Ad Hoc Advisory Group on Haiti), the Dominican Republic, Kenya, and Saint Kitts and Nevis (on behalf of the Caribbean Community) also participated. 

West Africa and the Sahel  

On 12 July, Special Representative and Head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) Leonardo Santos Simão briefed the Council (S/PV.9685), presenting the Secretary-General’s biannual report on West Africa and the Sahel and the activities of UNOWAS (S/2024/521). Following the public session, Council members held closed consultations with Simão.  

During July, Council members agreed to a draft letter that took note of the Secretary-General’s recommendation in his November 2023 and May 2024 letters to the Council to end the Secretariat’s reporting obligations on the Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force. In their letter responding to this recommendation, Council members requested that the Secretary-General provide three annual reports on West Africa and the Sahel and the activities of UNOWAS—rather than two such annual reports—in 2024 and 2025. 

“Multilateral Cooperation in the interest of a more just, democratic and sustainable world order” 

On 16 July, the Security Council held a ministerial-level open debate on “Multilateral cooperation in the interest of a more just, democratic and sustainable world order” under the “Maintenance of international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9686 and Resumption I). Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov chaired the meeting, which was one of the signature events of Russia’s July Council presidency. There were no briefers.  

UN Sanctions  

On 19 July, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2744, strengthening the mandate of the Focal Point for Delisting, which was established by resolution 1730 of 19 December 2006 to receive requests for delisting from UN sanctions regimes. Resolution 2744 also established an Informal Working Group of the Security Council on General UN Sanctions Issues, a previous iteration of which was active between 2000 and 2006. The resolution, which was co-penned by Malta and the US, was co-sponsored by 52 member states. 

Cooperation between the UN and Regional Organisations  

On 19 July, the Security Council held a debate on cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organisations (S/PV.9688), focusing on the role of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in maintaining international peace and security. Russia, a founding member of these three organisations, convened the debate as a signature event of its July Council presidency, and its Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin chaired the meeting. Assistant Secretary-General for Peacebuilding Support Elizabeth Spehar, CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov, CIS Secretary General Sergey Lebedev, and SCO Secretary General Zhang Ming briefed. 

UNRCCA (Central Asia)  

On 23 July, Council members held closed consultations on the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNRCCA Kaha Imnadze briefed. 

Central African Republic  

On 30 July, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2745, lifting the arms embargo on the CAR and renewing the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee until 31 August 2025, which henceforth will be known as the Panel of Experts pursuant to resolution 2745. The Council also extended all other sanctions measures targeted against armed groups and associated individuals until 31 July 2025. 

 

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