July 2024 Monthly Forecast



Expected Council Action   

In July, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) prior to its 15 July expiration.   

In addition, the Council will receive its regular quarterly briefing from Special Representative and Head of BINUH María Isabel Salvador on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country and on the Secretary-General’s latest report on BINUH. 

Key Recent Developments   

Haiti continues to face a multidimensional security, humanitarian, and human rights crisis as a result of extreme gang violence, which has surged since late February when an alliance of the main gangs in the capital Port-au-Prince conducted a series of coordinated attacks that targeted state institutions and critical infrastructure. Gang leaders said that their goal was to instigate a “civil war” to force the resignation of interim Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who had travelled to Kenya to sign a bilateral agreement facilitating the deployment of a multinational security support (MSS) mission. The Council had authorised the mission under Kenya’s leadership through resolution 2699 of 2 October 2023 to help Haiti combat gang activity and restore security.   

In response to the surge in violence, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) convened Haitian stakeholders for a high-level meeting on 11 March in Kingston, Jamaica, that resulted in an outcome declaration announcing two key commitments: the parties agreed to establish a Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) that would facilitate a peaceful transition of power by organising free and fair elections, and Henry committed to stepping down upon the formation of the TPC and its appointment of a new interim prime minister. 

The TPC was formally installed on 25 April. It comprises seven voting members representing political parties and the private sector as well as two non-voting observers drawn from civil society and the religious community. The council was charged with selecting a new interim prime minister, with whom it appointed a new cabinet; establishing a provisional electoral council and national security council; and collaborating with the international community to accelerate the deployment of the MSS mission. A political agreement signed by members of the council specified key tenets of the transition, emphasising security, constitutional reform, and elections as their main priorities and outlining a 22-month transitional period leading to the swearing-in of a new president in February 2026—nearly a decade after the country’s last elections.  

On 29 May, following protracted negotiations, the TPC announced the appointment of Garry Conille as interim prime minister. Conille is a former physician and UN official who previously served a brief term as prime minister from 2011 to 2012. Most recently, he served as UNICEF’s regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean.  

On 12 June, Conille and the TPC presented a new government cabinet. It includes former head of the Port-au-Prince bar association Carlos Hercule as minister of justice, former UNESCO ambassador Dominique Dupuy as minister of foreign affairs, and former World Bank and International Monetary Fund official Ketleen Florestal as minister of finance and planning. Like Henry before him, Conille will oversee the ministry of interior affairs, which is responsible for organising elections and preparing for the MSS mission. 

On 25 June, the MSS mission’s first contingent of 200 police officers arrived in Haiti from Kenya. The officers had initially been scheduled to arrive in February, but that timeline had been postponed for several reasons, including a judicial challenge in Kenya, Haiti’s political transition, and a lack of funding. Speaking at a press conference in Port-au-Prince after the arrival of the officers, Conille reportedly said that they would actively deploy within the next few days, but he did not provide details on their initial assignment. When asked about recent comments from a prominent gang leader about the need to resolve Haiti’s unrest through dialogue, Conille called on the gangs to “put down the guns and recognize the authority of the state, and then we will see where we go from there”.  

The MSS mission is expected to comprise up to 2,500 officers, deployed in phases, at an annual cost of approximately $600 million. According to the latest available information from the UN, eight countries—the Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belize, Benin, Chad, Jamaica, and Kenya—have formally notified the Secretary-General of their intention to contribute personnel to the MSS mission, while additional countries have expressed interest in doing so but have not yet provided official notification to that effect. As at late April, the UN-administered trust fund for the mission had received $18 million in contributions from Canada, France, and the US. The US is the mission’s main financial backer and has pledged a total of $300 million in financial, logistical, and material support, but the release of most of these funds has been held up in the US Congress; on 19 June, media reported that the administration of President Joe Biden would override the congressional hold and release $109 million for the mission.  

While Haiti’s gang violence appears to have receded from its peak earlier this year, the country’s security situation remains dire. According to the Secretary-General’s most recent report on BINUH, which was circulated to Council members on 26 June, the mission recorded 3,252 homicides between January and May, up from 2,453 during the previous reporting period (August-December 2023), mainly perpetrated by gang members operating in metropolitan Port-au-Prince and the Artibonite department. The report also notes that 20 police officers have been killed since the beginning of the year. On 14 June, Conille’s office announced the dismissal of HNP chief Frantz Elbé, whom Haiti’s police unions had reportedly criticised for an inadequate response to the gang violence. Elbé will be replaced by former police chief Normil Rameau, who held the post from 2019 to 2020. 

The acute security situation continues to have severe humanitarian consequences. From March to June, the number of displaced persons in Haiti increased by 60 percent from 362,000 to more than 578,000, according to the International Organization for Migration. In their latest outlook report covering the period from June to October, the World Food Programme, and the Food and Agriculture Organization designated Haiti a “famine hotspot of highest concern”, with an estimated 1.6 million people facing emergency-level acute food insecurity as a result of gang violence, displacement, restricted humanitarian access, and extreme weather conditions. Additionally, the Secretary-General’s annual report on children and armed conflict, covering developments in 2023, recorded 383 grave violations against 307 children in Haiti. (The six grave violations, as determined by the Security Council, are child recruitment and use; killing and maiming; rape and other forms of sexual violence; attacks on schools and hospitals; abductions; and the denial of humanitarian access.) 

Women, Peace and Security 

Distributed on 4 April, the Secretary-General’s annual report on conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) said that in 2023 armed gangs in Haiti continued to consolidate their territorial control “through the deliberate use of killings, kidnapping and sexual violence, facilitated by ready access to military-grade weapons and ammunition trafficked from abroad”. In this context, the report notes that “[b]rutal patterns of gang-related violence, including mass rape”, which were previously concentrated in Port-au-Prince, spread in 2023 to other departments, with the Panel of Experts on Haiti observing that “the use of sexual and gender-based violence is a pervasive tactic among most gangs in Haiti”. Similarly, the Secretary-General’s most recent report on BINUH notes that gang members continue to perpetrate sexual violence against women and girls “as a tactic to spread fear, extort money, gain control of power and to punish the population”. In his annual report on CRSV, the Secretary-General urgently called on the international community to strengthen its support for the humanitarian and development responses in Haiti, focusing on protection needs, including of women and girls displaced by gang violence, while also addressing the structural root causes of instability. The Secretary-General also urged the international community to support the Haitian authorities in the provision of “multisectoral assistance to all survivors and to monitor and investigate sexual violence perpetrated by gangs”. 

Key Issues and Options   

The central task for the Security Council in July is to renew BINUH’s mandate. In light of Haiti’s political transition, Council members could consider requesting BINUH to develop a strategy on how to support the country’s new interim government to organise elections and restore democratic governance. Additionally, to help Haiti’s police, judiciary, and correctional services prepare for the expected impact of the MSS mission, Council members could strengthen the mission’s advisory and capacity-building mandate in these sectors. The Secretary-General made this suggestion in his 14 August 2023 report outlining support options the UN could provide to enhance the security situation in Haiti, requested by resolution 2692 of 14 July 2023, which most recently renewed BINUH’s mandate.  

Another task for the Council is to review recommendations on possible adjustments to the MSS mission’s mandate, which resolution 2699 requested the Secretary-General to provide as part of his regular reporting on BINUH no later than nine months after the adoption of that resolution. The MSS mission’s current mandate expires on 2 October. 

Council Dynamics   

Council members are united in their concern about Haiti’s multidimensional crisis, including the most recent wave of violence, and generally agree on the need for a Haitian-led political solution that addresses both security and socioeconomic challenges.   

Views vary, however, on appropriate actions by the international community to support this process. While most Council members support the 11 March agreement and CARICOM’s mediation role that facilitated the deal, Russia has questioned the inclusivity of the process, specifically criticising a provision of the agreement that requires members of the TPC to support the MSS mission as interference in Haiti’s domestic affairs. Both China and Russia have also expressed reservations about the lack of operational detail regarding the mission’s terms of reference and exit strategy, concerns that complicated negotiations on both resolution 2692 and resolution 2699, although both were ultimately adopted unanimously. (For more information on those negotiations, see our 13 July 2023 and 2 October 2023 What’s in Blue stories.) 

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Security Council Resolutions
19 OCTOBER 2023S/RES/2700 This resolution renewed the sanctions regime on Haiti imposed by resolution 2653 of 21 October 2022.
2 OCTOBER 2023S/RES/2699 This resolution authorised member states to form and deploy a Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission to Haiti to help re-establish security in the country and build conditions conducive to holding free and fair elections.
14 JULY 2023S/RES/2692 This resolution renewed the mandate of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) for one year, until 15 July 2024.
Secretary-General’s Report
16 APRIL 2024S/2024/310 This was the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on Haiti.
Security Council Press Statements
21 MARCH 2024SC/15636 This press statement took note of the 11 March agreement facilitated by CARICOM, reiterated Council members’ support for a Haitian-led political process, and stressed the importance of swiftly deploying the MSS mission.
11 MARCH 2024SC/15620 This press statement expressed Council members’ deep concern about the security and humanitarian situation in Haiti, condemned the continued destabilising criminal activities of armed gangs, and expressed the “expectation and hope” that the MSS mission would deploy as soon as possible.

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