January 2022 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 December 2021
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Status Update since our December Forecast

Iraq

On 2 December, the Security Council received a briefing on the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD) (S/PV.8914). Christian Ritscher, the Special Adviser and Head of UNITAD, briefed on the seventh biannual report on UNITAD’s activities (S/2021/974).

Arria-formula Meeting on Children without Parental Care in Conflict Settings

On 3 December, Security Council members held a virtual Arria-formula meeting on “Addressing Challenges of Children without Parental Care in Conflict Settings”. The meeting was organised by Viet Nam, in cooperation with Kenya, Niger, Norway, Russia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the US and non-Council member Malta. The briefers were UNICEF Deputy Executive Director Omar Abdi; Christian Cardon de Lichtbeur, Chief Protection Officer at ICRC; and Angela Marshall, Senior Child Protection Technical Advisor at Save the Children. Ambassador Dang Dinh Quy (Viet Nam) chaired the meeting.

Somalia

On 3 December, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2608, renewing the anti-piracy measures off the coast of Somalia for three months. On 21 December, the Council also unanimously adopted resolution 2614, reauthorising the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) for three months until 31 March 2022.

Arria-formula Meeting on Protection of Education in Conflict

On 6 December, Security Council members held an Arria-formula meeting on the protection of education in conflict. Niger and Norway, the co-penholders on resolution 2601 of 29 October on the protection of education, organised the meeting. Norway’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Anniken Huitfeldt chaired the meeting and Crown Prince Haakon of Norway gave remarks. The briefers at the meeting were Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict Virginia Gamba and Doris Mpoumou, the Director of the AU Liaison and Pan-Africa Office and AU Representative at Save the Children International. Representatives of UNICEF and the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) provided opening and closing remarks.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

On 6 December, the Security Council held a briefing, followed by consultations, on the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) (S/PV.8918). Special Representative of the Secretary-General for the DRC and head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), Bintou Keita, briefed the Council on the Secretary-General’s latest report, which covered the period from 18 September to 30 November (S/2021/987). Marie-Madeleine Kalala, a women’s rights activist and member of the African Women Leaders Network, briefed the Council as a Congolese civil society representative. The Council also received a briefing from Ambassador Abdou Abarry of Niger in his capacity as Chair of the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 1533 (2004) concerning the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The Council adopted resolution 2612 on 20 December 2021, extending MONUSCO’s mandate until 20 December 2022. The resolution authorised a symbolic reduction of the mission’s troop ceiling, welcomed MONUSCO’s transition plan, and requested the mission to withdraw from Tanganyika province by mid-2022 and consolidate its footprint in Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu, the three provinces where active conflict persists.

Briefing by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees

On 7 December, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi briefed the Council (S/PV.8919). The meeting took place under the agenda item “Briefing by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees”, which allows for a general briefing by the High Commissioner without tying it to a specific situation on the Council’s agenda. Grandi described the situation of refugees in several country-specific cases on the Council’s agenda, including Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Syria and Yemen, among others. He also addressed the impact of climate change on refugees and discussed the importance of safeguarding humanitarian access, noting that UNHCR has struggled to deliver vital aid to citizens in the Tigray region of Ethiopia.

Golan Heights (UNDOF) 

On 8 December, Council members held closed consultations on UNDOF (S/PV.8920). On 21 December, the Council adopted resolution 2613, renewing UNDOF’s mandate until 30 June 2022.

Climate Change and Security

On 9 December, the Security Council held a high-level open debate on “Security in the context of terrorism and climate change” under the agenda item “Maintenance of international peace and security” (S/PV.8923). Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum chaired the meeting. The briefers were UN Secretary-General António Guterres, AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat, and Executive Secretary of the Lake Chad Basin Commission and Head of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) Mamman Nuhu.

On 13 December, the Security Council met (S/PV.8926) to vote on a draft resolution on climate change and security, which was co-authored by Ireland and Niger (S/2021/990). The draft failed to be adopted due to a Russian veto. India also voted against the draft, and China abstained. The other 12 Council members voted in favour of the draft.

International Criminal Tribunals

On 13 December, the Council held its semi-annual debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT), which was established in 2010 to carry out the remaining essential functions of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) and the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) after their respective closures (S/PV.8927). The IRMCT’s president, Judge Carmel Agius, and its prosecutor, Serge Brammertz, briefed during the debate and met with the Informal Working Group on International Tribunals prior to this meeting.

Subsidiary Bodies: Briefing by the Outgoing Chairs

On 13 December, the five outgoing chairs of the Council’s subsidiary bodies briefed on their respective experiences (S/PV.8928). Most referenced how the COVID-19 pandemic had affected the work of the subsidiary bodies they chaired. Ambassador Sven Jürgenson (Estonia) noted continued efforts to reduce the number of listed entities of the 1518 Iraq Sanctions Committee and highlighted the need for a visit to Sudan by the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee chair. Ambassador Abdou Abarry (Niger) gave an account of his visits to the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in his capacity as the outgoing chair of the 2127 Central African Republic and 1533 Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions committees. Ambassador Tarek Ladeb (Tunisia) spoke about his experiences chairing the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee (reporting on COVID-19 related challenges to the committee’s work) and the 2048 Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee (stressing the need for the next chair to visit the region). He also described his experiences as chair of the Working Group on Peacekeeping Operations, discussing its consideration of resolution 2518 of 31 March 2020 on the safety and security of peacekeepers. Ambassador Rhonda King (Saint Vincent and the Grenadines) described chairing the 2140 Yemen sanctions committee and expressed regret that the committee had not been able to visit Yemen due to COVID-19 related travel restrictions. She also noted that the Informal Working Group on Documentation and Other Procedural Questions had adopted four presidential notes while she served as its chair. Ambassador Hai Anh Pham (Viet Nam) spoke about the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee, reporting on the committee’s visit to the country while Viet Nam served as its chair. 

COVID-19 Pandemic

On 13 December, Security Council members held closed consultations on the implementation of resolution 2532 and resolution 2565, which demanded, respectively, a cessation of hostilities in all situations on the Council’s agenda to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and a humanitarian pause to facilitate the delivery of COVID-19 vaccines in areas of armed conflict. Under-Secretary-General for Peacebuilding and Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix and Acting Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Ramesh Rajasingham briefed. In press elements after the meeting, Council members reiterated the importance of implementing these resolutions and stressed the need for the relevant UN bodies, within their mandates, to remain focused on implementing the resolutions.

Iran

On 14 December, the Council convened for its biannual briefing on resolution 2231 of 20 July 2015, which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear programme (JCPOA) (S/PV.8930). Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed on the Secretary-General’s latest report on the implementation of resolution 2231, which was issued on 8 December (S/2021/995). The Council’s facilitator for the implementation of resolution 2231, Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason (Ireland), reported on the Council’s work in relation to resolution 2231. The head of the EU delegation to the UN, Olof Skoog, briefed on the work of the JCPOA’s Joint Commission.

Sudan/South Sudan

On 15 December, the Security Council adopted resolution 2609, extending the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) until 15 May 2022.

South Sudan

On 15 December, the Security Council held a briefing on South Sudan (S/PV.8931). Special Representative and head of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) Nicholas Haysom briefed on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on South Sudan, which was issued on 7 December (S/2021/1015). Wafaa Saeed, the Director of the Coordination Division of OCHA, briefed on the dire humanitarian situation in the country. Hai Anh Pham of Viet Nam, chair of the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee, briefed on the committee’s work. Consultations followed the briefing.

Central Africa (UNOCA)

On 15 December, François Louncény Fall, Special Representative and head of UNOCA, briefed the Council (S/PV.8933) on the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on UNOCA and the implementation of the UN’s regional strategy to combat the Lord’s Resistance Army (S/2021/975). In his briefing, Fall highlighted several challenges facing the region, including the threat of terrorism, rising food insecurity, climate change and the COVID‑19 pandemic.

DPRK (North Korea)

On 15 December, Council members discussed the human rights situation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) under “any other business”. The meeting was requested by the US, with support from Estonia, France, Ireland, Norway, and the UK.

Counter-terrorism

On 17 December, the Council adopted resolution 2610, updating and renewing the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) and Al-Qaida sanctions regime. The resolution extended the mandates of the 1267/1988 Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team (Monitoring Team) and the Office of the Ombudsperson for another 30 months, until June 2024. Notable updates in the resolution relate to the effects of counter-terrorism measures on humanitarian activities, the Office of the Ombudsperson and the assets freeze measures outlined in resolution 2368.

On 28 December, the Council adopted a resolution extending the mandate of the Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED).

Ethiopia

On 20 December, Council members discussed the situation in Ethiopia under “any other business”. Estonia, France, Ireland, Norway, the UK, and the US requested the meeting, which focused mainly on the humanitarian situation in Ethiopia. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths briefed.

Arria-formula Meeting on Preventing Civilian Impact of Malicious Cyber Activities

On 20 December, Council members held a closed Arria-formula meeting on “Preventing Civilian Impact of Malicious Cyber Activities”. The meeting was organised by Estonia and the UK. The briefers were Izumi Nakamitsu, UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs, and Helen Durham, Director of International Law and Policy at the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). Participation was open to current and incoming Security Council members.

Arria-formula Meeting on National Minorities and the Glorification of Nazism in the Baltic and Black Sea Region

On 22 December, Council members held an Arria-formula meeting on “The Situation with National Minorities and Glorification of Nazism in Baltic and Black Sea Region” via videoconference (VTC). The meeting was organised by Russia, and Russia’s permanent representative Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia provided welcoming and closing remarks. The briefers were UN Special Rapporteur on Minority Issues Fernand de Varennes and several civil society representatives. After the meeting, 36 member states—including Council members Estonia, France, Ireland, Norway, the UK and the US, and incoming Council member Albania—issued a joint statement accusing Russia of misusing the Arria-formula meeting to promote a false narrative and disinformation on its neighbouring countries. Noting Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s borders, the statement also called on Russia to de-escalate tensions and immediately withdraw its forces and equipment stationed in Ukraine.

 

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