July 2021 Monthly Forecast

THEMATIC ISSUES

In Hindsight: The UN Security Council and Climate Change 

In recent years, few thematic issues addressed by the Security Council have aroused as much attention, or controversy, as climate change and security. While it is not a formal agenda item, climate change and security has increasingly become a focus of signature events spearheaded by Council presidents. More and more, the Council is also emphasising the need for risk assessments and risk management strategies for climate change and ecological changes, and other factors by the UN and host governments in resolutions, particularly in Africa but also in other regions. And there are discussions among members about pursuing a thematic resolution on climate and security, building on the 2011 presidential statement on this issue, which noted the importance of including conflict analysis and contextual information on the possible security implications of climate change in the Secretary-General’s reports in relevant cases. 

In June 2021, Security Council Report (SCR) published its first research report on this issue, The UN Security Council and Climate Change, which traces the evolution of Council engagement on this topic. From the very first time the Council took up the matter, during an April 2007 open debate, to the present, it has spurred divisions among members. Addressing climate change does not fit into conventional notions of international peace and security; the evidence of direct linkages between climate change and conflict is contested. A number of member states emphasise that climate change is essentially a sustainable development issue that should be dealt with by other UN entities, which have the expertise to address the issue and are more broadly representative of the UN’s wider membership. As well, the concern has been expressed, especially by Russia, that climate change is often a distraction from the core work of the Council, as there are other more fundamental drivers of conflict in cases on the agenda.  

At the same time, other members have made persuasive arguments in support of Council engagement. These countries often emphasise that factors such as drought, water scarcity, food insecurity, desertification, and displacement that are caused by or exacerbated by climate change are conflict “risk multipliers”. Rather than viewing the Security Council as a usurper of the authority of other UN organs, they believe that the different parts of the UN system, including the Security Council, need to work together to confront the security challenges of climate change. They frequently see this issue as part of the Council’s conflict prevention work, and in more recent years, in the context of its peacebuilding agenda. They also tend to view climate change as a “human security” issue, whereby the negative impacts on people’s livelihoods and human welfare can heighten the risk of future conflict.  

At present, there are 12 members of the Security Council—Estonia, France, Ireland, Kenya, Mexico, Niger, Norway, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Tunisia, the UK, the US, and Viet Nam—that support the Council’s climate-security work with varying degrees of enthusiasm. Three members—China, India and Russia—have concerns about the Council’s engagement on the issue. The major change this year in Council dynamics is that the US is a supporter of a Council role on climate and security matters, whereas it was not during the previous presidential administration (January 2017 to January 2021).   

Various institutional arrangements, which have been developed since 2018, support the UN’s work on climate change and security; particularly notable among these are the Climate-Security Mechanism (CSM), the Group of Friends on Climate and Security and the Informal Expert Group (IEG) of Members of the Security Council on Climate and Security. The Climate-Security Mechanism—which was formed jointly in 2018 by the UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA), the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)—is designed to harness information and analysis on the linkages between climate change and security, and to integrate this lens into the organisation’s prevention, peacebuilding and adaptation work. It is supported through voluntary funds, rather than assessed contributions, reflecting the political sensitivities around this issue.  

In 2020, ten members of the Security Council (Belgium, the Dominican Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Niger, Tunisia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the United Kingdom, and Viet Nam)—established the IEG of Members of the Security Council on Climate and Security, which is designed to help the Council to develop a more systematic approach to climate-related security risks. The current co-chairs of the IEG are Ireland and Niger.   

Germany and Nauru are the co-founders and co-chairs of the Group of Friends on Climate and Security. Initially consisting of 27 UN member states, the Group has more than doubled in size since its establishment on 1 August 2018. As at 7 May 2021, it consisted of 57 member states—representing all five UN regional groups (the African Group, the Asia-Pacific Group, the Eastern European Group, the Western European and Others Group, and the Latin American and Caribbean Group)—and the EU. It has two standing agenda items: one on the work of the Climate-Security Mechanism, and a second on the work of and dynamics in the Security Council, including the activities of the Informal Expert Group of Members of the Security Council on Climate and Security. 

In light of the Council’s significant engagement on climate-security matters, our report outlines ways in which the Council may choose to proceed on this issue in the future.   

For more information on SCR’s work on climate change and security, please see our stories on Energy, Climate, and Natural Resources. 

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