October 2020 Monthly Forecast

Overview

Russia holds the presidency in October. Much of the Council’s work is likely to remain remote due to COVID-19 restrictions, although an effort is underway to hold several meetings on UN premises.

Russia will hold a debate focusing on a comprehensive review of the peace and security situation in the Persian Gulf region under the agenda item “Maintenance of international peace and security”. This signature event appears to have grown out of a concept for the region that Russia proposed in 2019. Secretary-General António Guterres is a possible briefer.

Two open debates are also anticipated late in the month. The quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question” is expected to feature a briefing by Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov.  There will also be an open debate on Women, Peace and Security; possible briefers include the Secretary-General, UN Women Executive Director Phumzile Mlambo-Ngucka, a female peacekeeper, and a civil society representative. The event will mark the 20th anniversary of the adoption of resolution 1325, the Council’s first on the topic of women, peace and security. A resolution is a possible outcome.

Three adoptions are currently scheduled for October. The Council expects to adopt a resolution renewing the authorisation for member states to inspect vessels suspected of being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking off the coast of Libya.

The Council intends to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti in October. Earlier in the month, a briefing is scheduled on Haiti. Also on the Americas, the Council plans to meet on developments in Colombia, including the work of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia.

The mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara will be renewed. Prior to that, Council members will meet on the mission’s work and developments in Western Sahara.

Several other African issues are on the programme.  Meetings are anticipated on:

Briefings are planned on the work of the 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee and the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee.

Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region Huang Xia is also scheduled to provide his biannual briefing to the Council in October on the implementation of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the DRC and the region.

In addition to the open debate on the Persian Gulf region and the quarterly open debate on the Middle East, there will be several other meetings on Middle East topics.

The usual monthly meetings on Yemen and on the political, humanitarian, and chemical weapons tracks in Syria are anticipated. The political and humanitarian briefings on Syria are likely to be combined.  Meetings on the UN Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan Heights and the implementation of resolution 1559 (Lebanon) are also scheduled.

The one European issue currently on the programme this month is Kosovo.

Also this month, President of the International Court of Justice Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf will provide the annual briefing to the Council, most likely in a private meeting.

The Council is likely to continue to follow closely developments in Nagorno-Karabakh, among other cases, in October.