August 2015 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 July 2015
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AFRICA

Sudan (Darfur)

Expected Council Action

In early August, Ambassador Rafael Ramírez (Venezuela), the chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to provide the quarterly briefing to Council members on the Committee’s work.

Key Recent Developments

The humanitarian and security situation in Darfur remains grim, with little progress on the political front. According to OCHA, there are now 2.6 million internally displaced persons in the region in the context of ongoing inter-communal violence. On 14 July, clashes between the Reizegat and Habaniya communities in South Darfur, sparked by a cattle-raiding incident, reportedly left dozens dead. Inter-communal clashes in Mellit, North Darfur, on 7 July between the Barti and Zayadia communities resulted in the displacement of approximately 2,500 people, and the burning down of several villages, according to the Sudanese government’s Humanitarian Aid Commission.  

The “national dialogue process”—announced in early April 2014 to “stop war and bring peace, free political society, fight against poverty and revitalise national identity” in the words of President Omar al-Bashir—has shown no results.   A preparatory meeting for the dialogue, scheduled for 29-30 March in Addis Ababa and organised by the AU High-Level Implementation Panel, was cancelled after the ruling National Congress Party refused to attend, objecting to holding the meeting just prior to the April national elections. The NCP recently expressed willingness to reinitiate the dialogue; it is questionable, however, whether key opposition actors will engage in a dialogue process that to date has been marred by government repression.   

On 29 June, the Council adopted resolution 2228 renewing the mandate of UNAMID for an additional year with the same force structure and the same core mandate focusing on, among other things, protection of civilians, humanitarian access and support for the political process. The resolution stresses that any refinement of the mission should “be based on progress against…[its]…benchmarks and the conditions on the ground” while being “implemented in a gradual, phased, flexible and reversible manner”. It further “looks forward to the Secretary-General’s recommendations” on an exit strategy, which the Council will consider “in due course”. The AU and the UN continue to consult with the government of Sudan on a way forward with regard to an exit strategy for the mission. 

Sanctions-Related Developments

On 28 May, Ambassador Ramírez provided the quarterly briefing in consultations on the work of the 1591 Sanctions Committee and its Panel of Experts. He advocated for the Committee and the Panel to play a role in the political process in Darfur (i.e., by supporting the Doha process and the efforts of the AU High-Level Implementation Panel to mediate the national dialogue among stakeholders in Sudan). He suggested that the Committee and the Panel participate in the deliberations of the tripartite working group of the UN, the AU and the government of Sudan, which has been tasked with developing suggestions for an exit strategy for UNAMID.

The first quarterly report of the Panel of Experts was transmitted to the Sanctions Committee in early June. It reportedly noted that the issuance of visas to Panel members had taken six weeks, which negatively affected their work. The report apparently referred to violations of the arms embargo by the government of Sudan and the Justice and Equality Movement rebels. 

According to the Sudan Tribune, former Janjaweed commander Musa Hilal, who is subject to a travel ban and assets freeze under the 1591 Sanctions regime, recently travelled to Egypt in violation of the sanctions.

Key Issues

The underlying issue is the apparent ineffectiveness of the sanctions regime, reflected in ongoing violations of the arms embargo and the travel ban against designated individuals.

A broader concern for the Council is the continuing instability in the security and humanitarian environment in Darfur, with no progress on the political front. 

Options

The Council could request that the Special Representatives of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict and for Sexual Violence in Conflict share relevant information with the Sudan Sanctions Committee, as is being done in the case of the South Sudan Sanctions Committee. 

The Council might consider extending the arms embargo to all of Sudan, rather than just Darfur.

In terms of format, another option would be to hold the upcoming quarterly briefing in public, rather than in consultations. In November 2014, the then-Sanctions Committee chair, Argentina, briefed on the work on the committee in public, followed by consultations. Since then, all the briefings on the Committee’s work have been held in a closed session (i.e., consultations).

Council Dynamics

Venezuela believes that resolution 2200, which extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts until 12 February 2016, provides the Panel with the flexibility to engage in the mediation process in Darfur. Most Council members—including all of the permanent members—do not share this interpretation of the mandate.

There are divergent perceptions of the government’s level of cooperation with the Committee and the Panel. The P3 and countries such as Chile, New Zealand and Spain tend to be critical of Sudan for administrative obstacles—e.g., delays in issuing visas to Panel members—while Chad, China, Malaysia and Russia are more sympathetic toward the government. 

While Venezuela chairs the Sudan Sanctions Committee, the UK is the penholder on Darfur.   

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UN Documents on Darfur

Security Council Resolutions
29 June 2015 S/RES/2228 This was a resolution renewing the mandate of UNAMID for an additional year.
12 February 2015 S/RES/2200 This resolution renewed the mandate of the Panel of Experts.

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