August 2015 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 July 2015
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EUROPE

Kosovo

Expected Council Action

In August, the Council is expected to hold its quarterly debate on Kosovo. Farid Zarif, Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), will brief via video teleconference on recent developments and the latest Secretary-General’s report. Both Serbia and Kosovo are likely to participate at high-level.

Key Recent Developments

The main development leading up to the last debate on Kosovo was the resumption of the EU-facilitated dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, which had been suspended for ten months. Since the Council last met on Kosovo on 26 May, two high-level meetings between Serbia and Kosovo were held under the auspices of the EU. Though some progress was made on the most contentious issue of the Association/Community of Serb Municipalities (ASM/CSM), at press time no final political agreement had been reached. The Association/Community is supposed to ensure the cooperation of participating municipalities and to have full overview of the areas of economic development, education, health and urban and rural planning. In addition to the ongoing Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, the establishment of the special court for the prosecution of war crimes committed by the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) during the Kosovo war is another issue dominating the political agenda in Kosovo and getting significant attention within the international community. During the last debate, the majority of Council members joined Zarif in calling on Kosovo authorities to ensure the establishment of the special court.

On 23 June, EU High Representative Federica Mogherini hosted a meeting between prime ministers Aleksandar Vučić of Serbia and Isa Mustafa of Kosovo. The agenda for this meeting included four outstanding issues between Belgrade and Pristina: the establishment of the ASM/CSM, energy, telecommunications and freedom of movement on the bridge between North and South Mitrovica. No agreement was reached during this round of talks.

The EU-facilitated dialogue continued in Brussels on 29 June. After 16 hours of negotiations, both sides reported making notable progress, especially on the issues of ASM/CSM and telecommunications.  However, according to Mogherini, final political agreement was still not reached on these issues. The main point of contention in negotiations seems to be the issue of the ASM/CSM. The Serbian side advocates an agreement that would give the Association/Community executive powers and greater autonomy from the central Kosovar government. Kosovo takes the position that competencies of ASM/CSM need to comply with Kosovo law. This implies that Kosovo leaders oppose any attempt to form another tier of government, in addition to the central and local levels.    

The establishment of the ASM/CSM is one of the key points of the 19 April 2013 First Agreement on Principles Governing the Normalisation of Relations between Belgrade and Pristina. The implementation of the agreement stands as one of the key prerequisites for Serbia’s further accession talks with the EU, the main foreign policy objective of Serbia.

On the domestic front, formation of the special court that is supposed to investigate cases of alleged war crimes committed by the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) during the conflict in Kosovo is still pending. In April 2014, the Kosovo Assembly voted to transfer the functions of the EU Rule of Law Mission (EULEX) Special Investigative Task Force to a special court. However, the establishment of the court requires amending the Kosovo Constitution, which has to be approved by two-thirds of the representatives in the Kosovo Assembly. The US and the EU, in particular have exerted significant pressure on Kosovo leaders to establish the court.

After it was postponed several times, the vote on the constitutional amendment paving the way for the establishment of the court was held on 26 June. Out of 120 representatives in the Assembly, 75 voted in favour of the amendments, seven voted no, two abstained and the rest did not participate in the vote. The legislation was thus not adopted because it did not obtain the necessary two-thirds majority. At press time, it was still unknown when the next vote would take place. However, it seems that the government of Kosovo will not call for a vote on the special court unless it can be confident that the amendments have the support of two-thirds of the Assembly.

On 27 May, a judicial panel at Mitrovica Basic Court indicted 11 out of 15 members of the so-called “Drenica group” for various war crimes committed in the late 1990s. All members of the Drenica group were former KLA members who fought in the Kosovo war and were based in the Drenica region of Kosovo. The Drenica group indictments and the attempts to create a special court drew strong opposition from KLA veterans organisations in Kosovo.  

On 17 June, former prime minister and current leader of the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo political party, Ramush Haradinaj, was detained in Ljubljana, Slovenia, on war-crimes charges. The Slovenian authorities were acting on a 2006 Interpol arrest warrant issued by Serbia regarding Haradinaj’s role in the Kosovo war in the late 1990s. Haradinaj surrendered to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in 2005 and was acquitted of war-crimes charges in 2012. On 19 June, Slovenia released Haradinaj, concluding that the ICTY had already addressed all of the charges in the arrest warrant.

Key Issues    

Maintaining stability remains the main issue for the Council.

A related issue will be the implementation of existing agreements between Belgrade and Pristina and more specifically what role UNMIK could play to that end. 

An increasingly important issue for the Council is the establishment of the special court for investigating alleged war crimes committed by the KLA, especially in light of current delays. The Council could play a crucial role in establishing the court, should Kosovo authorities fail to do so.

Options

The Council could consider reconfiguring UNMIK’s mandate and decreasing its presence on the ground, considering the relative stability in Kosovo.

Given the overall progress made in normalising relations between Belgrade and Pristina and the overall stability in Kosovo, the Council could consider modifying the Secretary-General’s reporting cycle, currently set at three-month intervals.

The Council could consider setting up an ad hoc accountability mechanism for alleged KLA crimes, should Kosovo authorities fail to do so.

Or the Council could choose to take no action, as was the case in previous years.

Council Dynamics

Kosovo remains an issue of relatively low intensity for the Council, with other regional organisations, mainly the EU, NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, playing  more active roles.

The Council’s dynamics on Kosovo remain unchanged, with a clear division between permanent members. France, the UK and the US recognise Kosovo, while China and Russia do not and are supportive of Serbia’s position. The rift between Russia and the P3 is even more evident now after the recent vote on the resolution on the 20th anniversary of the Srebrenica massacre, which Russia vetoed, in addition to the already strained relations over the crisis in Ukraine. 

Though several Council members, most notably the UK, the US and Lithuania, have recommended lengthening the reporting cycle for Secretary-General’s reports on Kosovo, Russia remains strongly opposed to any alteration of the reporting cycle or of UNMIK’s mandate.

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UN Documents

Security Council Resolution
10 June 1999 S/RES/1244 This resolution authorised NATO to secure and enforce the withdrawal of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia forces from Kosovo and established UNMIK.
Security Council Meeting Record
26 May 2015 S/PV.7448 This was the quarterly debate on Kosovo.

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