October 2014 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Argentina will hold the presidency of the Council in October. Read more

• Notable Dates for October

  Notable Dates for October Read more

• Status Update

  Recent development on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in September 2014.  Read more

• In Hindsight: The Security Council and Health Crises

  Last month’s emergency meeting on the ebola outbreak in West Africa was a rare situation when the Council considered a public health crisis and adopted a resolution. However, this was not the first time. The Council has also over the years held a series of meetings on the AIDS epidemic and previously discussed pandemics in the context of new challenges. Read more

• Syria

  The US-led airstrikes against ISIS expanded from Iraq to targets in Syria on 22 September. It seems unlikely the Council will meet separately to consider these expanded airstrikes. However, the strikes will be at the front of Council members’ thinking during their regular Syria deliberations in October that include a briefing from Sigrid Kaag on the chemical weapons and from OCHA on the humanitarian track. Finally, Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura will likely brief Council members this month following a round of September meetings in Damascus and the region, as well as meetings in New York during leaders’ week of the 69th General Assembly. Read more

• Ukraine

  In October the Council is expected to maintain its focus on the situation in Ukraine. Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan Šimonović is expected to brief on the human rights situation in Ukraine and the findings of the fifth monthly report of the Human Rights Monitoring Mission there. The Council may hold other meetings on Ukraine depending on developments.  Read more

• Somalia

  In October, Special Representative Nicholas Kay is scheduled to brief the Council on the most recent report of the Secretary-General on the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman is scheduled to brief the Council on the Secretary-General’s report on piracy due 17 October. The Council is expected to adopt resolutions renewing authorisation of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and addressing aspects of the 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea sanctions regime, including the partial lifting of the arms embargo (expires on 25 October), the humanitarian exemption (expires on 25 October) and the mandate of the Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring Group (expires on 25 November).    Read more

• South Sudan

  The new Special Representative and head of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), Ellen Margrethe Løj, is expected to brief the Council, followed by consultations. She will report on the situation in South Sudan and present the UNMISS report. At press time, no outcome was anticipated.  The mandate of UNMISS expires on 30 November.   Read more

• Yemen

  In October, Special Adviser Jamal Benomar is expected to brief Council members in consultations on Yemen. Read more

• Mali

  In October, the Council expects a briefing from the Special Representative and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), Albert Gerard Koenders. The briefing will be followed by consultations. Read more

• Peacekeeping

  The Council expects a briefing on peacekeeping from Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous and force commanders from MONUSCO in the DRC, MINUSMA in Mali and UNDOF in the Golan Heights. Read more

• Women, Peace and Security

  In late October the Council will hold its annual open debate on women, peace and security. The head of UN Women will brief, possibly along with the Secretary-General, the High Commissioner for Refugees and a civil society representative. The emphasis of the debate will be on the effects of displacement on women, focusing on refugees and internally displaced persons. A presidential statement is a possible outcome. Read more

• Haiti

  In October the Security Council will adopt a resolution extending the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) before the current mandate expires on 15 October.   Read more

• Israel/Palestine

  In October, Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman will brief the Council during its quarterly open debate on the Middle East. Feltman is likely to focus on developments following the 26 August Egyptian-brokered ceasefire that ended 50 days of fighting between Israel and Gaza militants. Read more

• Western Sahara

  In October, Council members expect a briefing in consultations by Christopher Ross, the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Western Sahara. The incoming Special Representative and head of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) Kim Bolduc, may also brief the Council.  Read more

• Sudan and South Sudan

  Council members are expected to hold consultations on the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) and adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the mission prior to its expiration on 15 October. A high-level representative from the Department of Peacekeeping Operations is expected to brief during the consultations.  Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In October, the Council will be briefed by Special Representative Martin Kobler, head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO), as well as the recently appointed Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region, Said Djinnit. The briefing will be followed by consultations.  Read more

• Lebanon

  Council members expect to receive the semi-annual briefing in consultations from Special Envoy Terje Rød-Larsen on the latest report on the implementation of resolution 1559, which is due in early October. Discussion is expected to focus on the enormous impact the Syrian crisis is having on the political, security and humanitarian situations in Lebanon. Read more

• Working Methods

  Expected Council Action In October, the Council will hold its annual open debate on working methods. Ambassador María Cristina Perceval (Argentina), the chair of the Informal Working Group on Documentation and Other Procedural Questions (the Working Group), will brief. Also... Read more

• International Court of Justice

  In October, the president of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Peter Tomka (Slovakia), is expected to brief the Council in a private meeting. The annual briefing normally coincides with the presentation of the ICJ’s annual report to the General Assembly. Read more