October 2013 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2013
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Overview

Azerbaijan will preside over the Council in October. At press time, the Council was poised to adopt a resolution on the Syrian chemical weapons issue. The situation in Syria will likely continue to garner a significant level of Council activity in October.

In early October, Council members will be on a visiting mission to several locations in Africa, including Addis Ababa, Kigali, Goma, Kampala and Kinshasa.

Azerbaijan is planning three open debates on:

  • Council working methods;
  • women peace and security, with a briefing by the Secretary-General and the new head of UN Women, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka; and
  • the Middle East, most likely with a briefing by Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman.

Briefings are expected:

Briefings, followed by consultations, are likely on:

  • the situation in the Great Lakes region and the work of UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of MONUSCO, Martin Kobler, and the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region, Mary Robinson;
  • the situation in Mali by the head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali, Albert Gerard Koenders;
  • the latest Secretary-General’s report on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur, by Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous; and
  • the situation in Somalia and three related reports by the Deputy Secretary-General, Jan Eliasson.

Briefings in consultations are likely on:

  • Sudan and South Sudan issues, twice, most likely respectively by Ladsous and Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Tayé-Brook Zerihoun;
  • UN Interim Security Force for Abyei by its head, Yohannes Tesfamariam (via videoconferencing);
  • the implementation of resolution 1559 concerning Lebanon by Special Envoy Terje Rød-Larsen; and
  • Western Sahara, by Wolfgang Weisbrod-Weber, the head of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara and by the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Western Sahara, Christopher Ross.

The annual private meeting with the President of the International Court of Justice, Peter Tomka, is also planned.

Additionally, formal sessions will be needed to adopt resolutions:  

A formal session will likewise be needed to adopt the introduction (drafted by the US) to the annual report of the Security Council to the General Assembly.

On 17 October the General Assembly is scheduled to hold elections to fill five seats on the Security Council for the period from 1 January 2014 through 31 December 2015 to replace exiting members Azerbaijan, Guatemala, Morocco, Pakistan and Togo.