April 2013 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 March 2013
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AFRICA

Sudan/Darfur

Expected Council Action

In late April, the Council expects to hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s quarterly report on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). The Council began negotiating a draft presidential statement on 20 March that appeared to express concern at the recent violence in North Darfur. However, at press time, it seemed that this statement had reached an impasse, and it is unclear whether the Council will attempt to revive its discussions on the statement.  

The mandate of UNAMID expires on 31 July. 

Key Recent Developments

Edmond Mulet, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, briefed the Council on Darfur and the latest UNAMID report prior to its consultations on the issue on 24 January. Mulet expressed concern at the recent deterioration of the security situation in certain parts of Darfur, particularly western Jebel Marra and North Darfur. He said that the government needed to provide “a holistic settlement of the issues of political and economic marginalisation affecting not only Darfur but Sudan as a whole” to achieve a durable and comprehensive peace in Darfur.

Speaking after Mulet, Ambassador Daffa-Alla Elhag Ali Osman (Sudan) urged the Council to take stronger measures against rebel groups that have not joined the Doha peace process. He also alleged that rebel movements in Darfur received logistical and political support from South Sudan and claimed that they initiated attacks from South Sudan on Darfur. 

On 14 February, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2091 renewing the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee for an additional year. The resolution did not make any fundamental changes to the mandate of the Panel. However, it expressed concern that materiel or other resources supplied to Sudan could be used to operate military aircraft in violation of the arms embargo. In a statement in the Council after the adoption of the resolution, Ali Osman said, “This concern is based on false premises, since…Sudan uses its aircraft for purely peaceful, civilian purposes”.  

Sudan and the Justice and Equality Movement-Bashar (JEM-Bashar) continued their negotiations in an effort to reach a peace agreement. On 24 January in Doha they signed a framework agenda outlining the topics to be discussed, which are based on five elements of the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD), including power sharing, wealth sharing, justice and reconciliation, ceasefire and security arrangements and compensation of refugees and internally displaced persons. Sudan and JEM-Bashar signed a ceasefire agreement in Doha on 10 February, and on 24 March they struck a partial deal, also in Doha, as they are still negotiating power-sharing and security arrangements. (JEM-Bashar, headed by Mohamed Bashar Ahmed, is a splinter group of the JEM, one of the main rebel groups in Darfur.)

Violent conflict has continued in Darfur in recent months. Fighting between the Beni Hussein and Abbala communities in Jebel Amir, North Darfur, over access to a gold mine caused 100 deaths and displaced 100,000 people in early January. Despite a ceasefire agreement signed on 17 January, the two communities clashed again in late February, this time near El Sereif, North Darfur, with Al-Jazeera reporting that the fighting claimed 51 lives. UNAMID sent medical supplies to the area and flew 37 of the injured to El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, to receive medical care. On 8 and 9 March, bombings were reported in Al Malaha, North Darfur, apparently destroying several homes and killing a large number of cattle. Additionally, on 15 March, members of the Sudan Liberation Army-Minni Minawi (SLA-MM) reportedly killed four civilians who were part of the Rizeigat community during a raid on their camp near Beleil, South Darfur.

Human Rights-Related Developments

The independent expert on the situation of human rights in the Sudan, Mashood Baderin, visited Sudan from 3-10 February. He met with a variety of interlocutors in Khartoum and El-Fasher. At the end of the visit, Baderin made preliminary observations regarding the flaws in the prosecution of crimes committed in Darfur, the challenges faced by civil society organisations, the arrest and detention of political opposition figures by the National Intelligence and Security Services, the lack of security and denial of humanitarian access in North Darfur and his concerns regarding women and children’s rights. Baderin will present his report to the Human Rights Council in September 2013.

Key Issues

A key issue for the Council is whether and how UNAMID can strengthen its role in protecting civilians, given the toll that recent outbreaks of inter-communal violence have taken on civilian populations.

Another key issue is how the Council can exert leverage on Sudan to end aerial bombardments in civilian areas in Darfur.  

An additional important issue is how the Council can facilitate progress in the implementation of the DDPD, given the significant delays in its implementation, so that noticeable, concrete progress can be made in improving the lives of people on the ground.  

An ongoing, key issue is how to convince rebel groups in Darfur that have not put down their arms and the Sudanese government to engage in constructive peace talks.  

Options

The Council could decide to invite the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and the High Commissioner for Human Rights to brief the Council on the impact of the recent conflict in Darfur on civilians. 

It could also adopt a statement that:

  • expresses concern with recent inter-communal violence in Darfur and its impact on civilians;
  • condemns violence against civilians by parties to the conflict;  
  • condemns destabilising activities by rebel groups and demands that they join the peace process;
  • encourages progress in negotiations between Sudan and the JEM-Bashar faction; and
  • urges progress in implementing the provisions of the DDPD, while expressing support for the upcoming donor conference on Darfur, scheduled for 7-8 April in Doha. 
Council Dynamics 

Over the past year, the Council’s focus on Darfur has been somewhat overshadowed by its dealings with Sudan-South Sudan issues.  However, several Council members have been troubled by reports of deteriorating security in Darfur and its humanitarian impact. In particular, there is growing concern among several Council members about the heightened inter-communal violence this year in North Darfur, notably between the Beni Hussein and Abbala communities. Nonetheless, some members appear to believe that inter-communal tensions in North Darfur have diminished in recent weeks.

Over the past several months, some Council members have also been disappointed by the lack of progress in implementing the DDPD, pointing to the difficult security situation, weak rule of law and the lack of sufficient funds for implementation. While Council members are hopeful that the upcoming donor conference on Darfur could provide funds to help support implementation of the DDPD, some are more optimistic than others that the funds generated will be used effectively to improve services in Darfur.

 The UK is the penholder on Darfur.

 
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UN Documents on Sudan/Darfur

Security Council Resolutions
14 February 2013 S/RES/2091 This resolution extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee until 17 February 2014.
31 July 2012 S/RES/2063 Renewed the UNAMID mandate for a year and authorised a reconfiguration of the mission.
31 July 2007 S/RES/1769 This resolution created an African Union/UN hybrid peacekeeping mission in Darfur (UNAMID).
31 March 2005 S/RES/1593 This resolution referred the situation in Darfur to the International Criminal Court.
Secretary-General’s Report
10 January 2013 S/2013/22 This was a quarterly report of the Secretary-General on UNAMID.
Security Council Meeting Records
14 February 2013 S/PV.6920 At this meeting the Council adopted resolution 2091.
24 January 2013 S/PV.6910 This was a briefing to the Council on UNAMID.

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