April 2013 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 March 2013
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Status Update

DRC

On 5 March, the Council received a briefing by the Secretary-General and held consultations on his 27 February special report (S/2013/119) on possible options and their implications for reinforcing the capability of MONUSCO (S/PV.6928). On 22 March, the Council released a press statement (SC/10956) welcoming the surrender of Bosco Ntaganda to the ICC. It also expressed concern that Sylvestre Mudacumura, commander of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, is still at large. At press time, it was expected that the Council would adopt a resolution on 28 March to renew MONUSCO’s mandate—including an intervention brigade to neutralise rebel groups in eastern DRC—until 31 March 2014.

Golan Heights (UNDOF)

Following the detention of 21 UNDOF peacekeepers by armed Syrian opposition fighters, Council members held consultations on 6 March at which they agreed to a press statement condemning the event and demanding the unconditional and immediate release of the peacekeepers (SC/10933). Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous updated Council members in consultations on the status of negotiations with those holding the peacekeepers on 8 March, and all 21 were released unharmed into Jordan on 9 March. In letters dated 11 March, Austria and the Philippines (the two largest UNDOF troop contributors) separately requested the Security Council to develop a mechanism to “guarantee” active dialogue between troop-contributing countries (TCCs) and the Council (S/2013/142 and S/2013/152). On 22 March, Council members met informally in an interactive dialogue format with the UNDOF TCCs to address their concerns. On 26 March, Council members met again in regularly scheduled consultations on UNDOF to consider the Secretary-General’s 19 March report on the mission (S/2013/174). On 27 March, the Council adopted an additional press statement on UNDOF expressing grave concern over continued violations of the Disengagement of Forces Agreement and calling on all parties to respect the safety and security of UNDOF personnel (SC/10962).

Iran

On 6 March, the chair of the 1737 Iran Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Gary Quinlan (Australia) presented his first 90-day report on the work of the Committee to the Council (S/PV.6930). He said the Committee had held one meeting on 13 February during which it had discussed the interception reported by a member state (widely reported to be Yemen) of a vessel suspected of carrying illicit weapons from Iran to that state, and had encouraged the Panel of Experts to investigate the incident. The Committee had also considered an 11 January incident report from the Panel on the missile launches conducted by Iran in July 2012 which concluded that they represented a violation of resolution 1929. Quinlan said Council members were still discussing how to respond to this as well as to a Panel compilation of statements made by Iranian officials indicating potential violations of resolution 1747. Quinlan also mentioned that the Committee on 20 December had designated two additional entities as subject to targeted sanctions and had issued two implementation assistance notices, one on conventional arms and related material on 26 December and one on financial and business measures on 27 February.

Guinea-Bissau

On 6 March, the Council was briefed in consultations by Tayé-Brook Zerihoun, Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs, on the quarterly report (S/2013/123) on efforts to restore constitutional order in Guinea-Bissau following the 12 April 2012 coup, following which there was no outcome. Council members agreed on the consolidation of reporting cycles for resolutions 2048 (on the restoration of constitutional order) and 2092 (on the mandate of UNIOGBIS), with the next report due by the end of April. This report will include an assessment of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on the situation on the ground, guide the discussions, and will be taken up by the Council in May when it will feed into the negotiations on a new resolution for the renewal of UNIOGBIS’s mandate.

DPRK (North Korea) 

In resolution 2094 adopted on 7 March the Council imposed additional sanctions against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) in response to its 12 February nuclear test while tightening some of the measures already in place (S/PV.6932).  It also designated an additional three individuals as subject to both the travel ban and assets freeze and two entities as subject to the assets freeze and expanded the list of prohibited items, materials, equipment, goods and technology while clarifying the type of luxury goods subject to sanctions. Furthermore, the resolution extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1718 Sanctions Committee until 7 April 2014 and increased the number of experts from seven to eight. In a 9 March letter to the Council, the DPRK denounced the resolution and said it would only result in “increasing the capability of Songun Korea a thousand times” (S/2013/141). In a 15 March letter to the Council the DPRK submitted a statement on its 11 March withdrawal from the Korean Armistice Agreement, claiming that, contrary to the position of the Republic of Korea, the agreement could be unilaterally dissolved (S/2013/162).

A Meeting with Members of the EU Political and Security Committee 

On 13 March, seventeen ambassadors and the permanent chair of the EU Political and Security Committee (PSC) met with the fifteen members of the Security Council (ten EU ambassadors could not attend due to weather-related flight cancellations). The meeting was hosted by Russia, as Council president, at its permanent mission. The topics of discussion included Mali, Somalia, Syria and the Middle East peace process, particularly with respect to enhancing UN-EU coordination in these areas. As it was an informal meeting, there was no official outcome, but the permanent chair of the PSC, Olof Skoog, did extend an invitation for Council members to visit Brussels.

Sierra Leone 

On 13 March, the Council was briefed by Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen, Executive Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNIPSIL, on the Secretary-General’s report (S/2013/118). Ambassador Guillermo Rishchynski (Canada), chair of the Sierra Leone configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), also briefed the Council following the recent PBC visit to the country (S/PV.6933). On 26 March, resolution 2097 was adopted renewing UNIPSIL’s mandate for twelve months, articulating a specific timeframe for the mission’s drawdown process, which should be completed by 31 March 2014. The resolution notes three key tasks for UNIPSIL to perform for the remainder of its mandate, in coordination with the UN country team and other partners: conflict prevention and mediation support for the upcoming constitutional support process (in which UNIPSIL is expected to play a role, with the UN country team taking over following UNIPSIL’s drawdown); security sector reform support; and support to the strengthening of human rights institutions. While Council members did not agree on a timeframe for the conclusion of the work of the Sierra Leone PBC configuration beyond the drawdown of UNIPSIL, it seems likely that it will continue through late 2014.

Libya

On 14 March, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2095, extending UNSMIL’s mandate by 12 months and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee for 13 months (S/PV.6934). The resolution lifts the requirement that the Sanctions Committee approve the use of non-lethal military equipment and assistance for humanitarian or protective use. It also removes the need for notification to the Committee of non-lethal military equipment being supplied to the government for security or disarmament assistance. The resolution also urges the government to improve the monitoring of arms supplied to Libya including through the issuance of end-user certificates. The meeting included briefings by the Special Representative and head of UNSMIL, Tarek Mitri, Ambassador Eugène Richard Gasana (Rwanda), the chair of the Libya Sanctions Committee and Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan.

Afghanistan

On 19 March, the Council held a debate on the situation in Afghanistan during which it discussed the Secretary-General’s most recent report on UNAMA (S/2013/133) and adopted resolution 2096 extending the mandate of UNAMA until 19 March 2014 (S/PV.6935 and Resumption 1). Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon briefed the Council.

Haiti

On 20 March, the Council held its semi-annual debate on Haiti during which the Secretary-General’s Acting Special Representative, Nigel Fisher, presented the Secretary-General’s 8 March report (S/2013/139) on MINUSTAH and provided an update on recent developments (S/PV.6936). Fisher described the situation in Haiti as challenging both at the political and socioeconomic levels. He emphasised in particular that it was crucial for elections to take place in 2013 and said the president of Haiti had committed to establishing a temporary electoral council (a prerequisite for elections to move forward) before Easter. Fisher also presented the conditions-based consolidation plan for MINUSTAH, which was annexed to the Secretary-General’s report.

Iraq

On 21 March, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNAMI, Martin Kobler, briefed the Council on the most recent report (S/2013/154) of the Secretary-General on UNAMI (S/PV.6937). Kobler highlighted progress towards the normalisation of Iraq’s relations with Kuwait, spillover from the Syrian conflict in Iraqi territory, significant political demonstrations that have gripped Iraq since late December, acts of terrorism that killed approximately 1,300 people between November 2012 and February 2013, and ongoing efforts to relocate the more than 3,000 Iranian exiles currently living in Camp Hurriya. Ambassador T. Hamid Al Bayati (Iraq) also spoke.

South Sudan

On 21 March, Hilde Johnson, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNMISS, briefed the Council on the recent report (S/2013/140) of the Secretary-General on UNMISS (S/PV.6938). During her briefing, which was followed by consultations, Johnson said that “South Sudan’s transition towards a stable, viable state continued at an uneven pace”. 

Kosovo

Farid Zarif, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNMIK, briefed the Council on 22 March regarding the Secretary-General’s report of 4 February (S/2013/72) and recent developments (S/PV.6939). Prime Minister Ivica Dačić of Serbia and Prime Minister Hashim Thaçi of Kosovo also addressed the Council in the debate.  Zarif reported that since he last briefed the Council on 27 November 2012 (S/PV.6872), there had been positive developments related to the high-level political dialogue facilitated by the EU in Brussels, with the most recent meeting having taken place on 20 March. Nonetheless, significant challenges remain, particularly within the mixed communities of the north where security incidents have inflamed ethnic tensions. Dačić suggested that “the situation on the ground has not been substantially improved”, particularly with regard to the human rights of ethnic Serbs in Kosovo. Thaçi stated the principal obstacle to further progress in political talks has been Serbia’s proposal for territorial integrity and separate institutions for Serbs in Kosovo, which he claimed would be detrimental to an efficient, stable and centralised state.  Council members expressed strong support for EU mediation, but also noted with concern the potential for a fragile security situation to undermine political progress.  

Liberia

On 25 March, the Council was briefed by Karin Landgren, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNMIL, on the situation in Liberia (S/PV.6941). Ambassador Staffan Tillander (Sweden), chair of the Liberia configuration of the PBC, also briefed the Council following the recent PBC visit to the country. No outcome followed the briefing and consultations. Landgren’s briefing was largely guided by the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2013/124), with discussions around UNMIL’s continuing reconfiguration, progress towards achieving the transition benchmarks, and the development of a transition plan with the Government of Liberia during and beyond UNMIL’s drawdown. Tillander focused on key findings of the PBC mission related to progress on security sector reform, rule of law and national reconciliation.

Cyprus 

An expected briefing by Alexander Downer, the Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Cyprus, failed to materialize in March. No new briefing by Downer has been scheduled.

 

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