April 2013 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 March 2013
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AFRICA

Somalia

Expected Council Action

In April, the Council expects the Secretary-General’s report with the findings of the Technical Assessment Mission (TAM), which had been tasked with developing further details for a new UN special political mission that will replace the current UN presence in Somalia. Based on the recommendations of the report, the Council is likely to adopt a resolution in late April or early May authorising a new UN mission to be deployed by 3 June. The Council will also be briefed, most likely by the Department of Political Affairs, in late April. The government of Somalia is also due to report on the implementation of safeguards related to a partial lifting of the arms embargo.   

Key Recent Developments

On 6 March, the Council adopted resolution 2093 extending the authorisation of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) until 28 February 2014 while specifying that its mandate includes the provision of assistance to the government in extending state authority in areas recovered from the Islamist rebel group Al-Shabaab. The Council also reiterated its request for AMISOM to establish a guard force for the protection of international staff and requested the AU to consider providing funding for AMISOM through its own assessed costs as it has done for the African-led International Support Mission to Mali. 

Resolution 2093 did not reflect the requests submitted to the Council by the AU Peace and Security Council based on the strategic review that had been conducted by the AU Commission. In a 27 February communiqué, the AU decided to broaden AMISOM’s mandate to a “multidimensional Peace Support Operation” and called on the Council to authorise an “enhancement of the support package to AMISOM”. (The strategic review and the communiqué were submitted to the Council on 5 March [S/2013/134].) 

In addition, in resolution 2093, the Council authorised a partial lifting of the arms embargo for a period of 12 months for weapons and training solely intended for the Somali National Security Forces (SNSF). (Some types of heavy weaponry are excluded as specified in an annex to the resolution.) The partial lifting of the arms embargo also applies to AMISOM’s “strategic partners”. The resolution asked the government to report to the Council within one month and semi-annually thereafter on the structure of the SNSF and the infrastructure and procedures it has established for registration, storing, maintaining and distributing weapons.  Resolution 2093 also expanded the mandate of the Monitoring Group to oversee the new provisions. It furthermore endorsed the Secretary-General’s recommendations in his report of 31 January that the UN Political Office for Somalia should be replaced by a new expanded UN special political mission that would incorporate the UN Support Office for AMISOM (S/2013/69). It requested that by January 2014 the UN country team be integrated as well. 

In the interim, resolution 2093 asked the Secretary-General to conduct a TAM and report back to the Council by 19 April, after which it will likely mandate a new Special political mission in Somalia to be deployed by 3 June. Guiding principles for the TAM suggested an expanding role for the UN in providing advice, support and capacity-building to the government of Somalia in areas such as peacebuilding, statebuilding, elections, governance, human rights and security sector reform. Under the leadership of the Department of Political Affairs, a TAM was conducted from 18 to 29 March, with visits to Nairobi, Addis Ababa and Somalia.

On 12 March, Ambassador Kim Sook (Republic of Korea), chair of the 751/1907 Sanctions Committee on Somalia and Eritrea, briefed Council members in consultations on the work of the Committee. He reported that Al-Shabaab continued to benefit from charcoal exports and expressed concerns regarding the SNSF’s institutional control over arms. He also noted there will be changes in operational rules for the Monitoring Group, given its newly expanded oversight and reporting requirements.                      

The overall security situation has continued to improve, with AMISOM and SNSF advances against Al-Shabaab, but much of the country nonetheless remains under the control of the Islamist insurgency. However, in Mogadishu and some other areas, Al-Shabaab has continued to resort to asymmetrical warfare. In an attack on 18 March, just a few days after Brigadier General Hadir Adan Elmi was announced as the new Chief of General Staff for the SNSF, a car bomb apparently targeting senior Somali security officials exploded near Villa Somalia (the presidential palace) in Mogadishu, killing at least ten civilians. Attacks on journalists have continued, the most recent assassination occurred in Mogadishu on 24 March.   

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 3 March, an appeals court repealed the one-year sentence against a 27-year-old Somali woman who was convicted on 5 February for allegedly fabricating claims of being raped by five government soldiers. It did not, however, repeal the sentence against the journalist who had interviewed her, and only reduced it from one year to six months, prompting continued international criticism of the government. On 17 March, the High Court released the journalist, who had been jailed since 10 January.

On 4 March, citing a lack of institutional controls and the widespread availability of arms, Amnesty International issued a press release opposing the lifting of the arms embargo in Somalia by the Security Council. It stated, “instead of lifting the embargo, it should be strengthened by incorporating strict rules granting exemptions to prevent arms from getting into the wrong hands and being used to commit human rights and humanitarian abuses.”

Key Issues

The central issue facing the Council is the configuration of the new UN special political mission. One important aspect will be determining the mandate in relation to the division of labour among the UN, AU and the government.

With the anticipated expansion of the UN presence within Somalia, the Council’s request for the establishment of an AMISOM guard force for the protection of international staff takes on added urgency. 

Another key issue is the impact of the partial lifting of the arms embargo and whether the safeguards envisaged in resolution 2093 will be sufficient in terms of ensuring that weapons do not fall into the wrong hands. 

Options

The main option for the Council is to mandate a new special political mission for Somalia based on the Secretary-General’s expected recommendations, to be deployed by 3 June as previously outlined in resolution 2093.

Alternatively, depending on the results of the TAM and the recommendations of the Secretary-General, the Council may decide to delay deployment of the new UN mission pending the presence of appropriate security conditions within Somalia.

A further option for the Council is to send a visiting mission to Mogadishu in response to the invitation issued by Foreign Minister Fauzia Yusuf Haji Adan on 14 February.

Council and Wider Dynamics

Although resolution 2093 passed unanimously, there nonetheless seems to be underlying divisions among Council members, particularly regarding the arms embargo. The resolution represents a compromise between those who wanted a more comprehensive lifting of the arms embargo (the US) and those who opposed any modification. 

The structure of the future UN mission in Somalia has also been a contentious issue.  The US had advocated keeping UN Support Office for AMISOM separate, but apparently conceded on this particular point during negotiations. Concerned about the politicisation of aid delivery, humanitarian agencies opposed the structural integration of the UN country team, which under resolution 2093 will be phased in by January 2014. (The government of Somalia had requested a unified UN presence within Somalia.) An upcoming donor conference on 7 May in London may provide additional urgency to the Council’s consideration of a resolution regarding the future UN mission.    

Somalia has been increasingly asserting its sovereignty, while it has also requested the UN to end its bunker mentality and expand its presence throughout the country.  Meanwhile, as the UN is anticipating taking on a larger peacebuilding role, the AU has officially expressed its intention to expand the scope of AMISOM’s work. Tensions regarding the precise division of labour among the UN, the AU and the Somali government may become more pronounced.

The UK is the penholder on Somalia, while the Republic of Korea is the chair of the 751/1907 Sanctions Committee. 

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UN Documents on Somalia

Security Council Resolution
6 March 2013 S/RES/2093 This resolution authorised AMISOM deployment until 28 February 2014 and partially lifted the arms embargo on Somalia.
Secretary-General’s Report
31 January 2013 S/2013/69 This wasthe latest regular report on Somalia.
Security Council Meeting Record
6 March 2013 S/PV.6929 This meeting concerned the re-authorisation of AMISOM.
Security Council Letters
5 March 2013 S/2013/134 This letter was from the Secretary-General and included the AU strategic review and communiqué regarding AMISOM.
14 February 2013 S/2013/94 This letter from the Secretary-General included a joint statement with the Chairperson of the AU Commission.

Other Relevant Facts

Special Representative of the Secretary-General
Augustine Mahiga (Tanzania) 

Size and Composition of AMISOM
Current strength as of 25 January: 17,709 total uniformed personnel. The main troop contributors are Burundi (5,432 troops), Kenya (4,652 troops), Uganda (6,223 troops) and Djibouti (960 troops).

Special Representative of the AU and Head of AMISOM
Mahamat Salah Annadif (Chad)

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