August 2012 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 August 2012
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ASIA

UNRCCA (Central Asia)

Expected Council Action

In August, Council members are expecting a briefing by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Central Asia and head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), Miroslav Jenča. This will be Jenča’s eighth briefing since his appointment in May 2008 and will provide Council members with an update on the Centre’s activities since the last briefing. 

Key Recent Developments

Jenča briefed the Council on the work of UNRCCA three times in 2011: 13 January, 15 July and 19 December. Each briefing was in consultations and was followed by a Council press statement. Through these statements, the Council expressed its appreciation for the efforts of UNRCCA in responding to regional challenges and its contributions to the implementation of the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy. The statements also highlighted the Centre’s engagement in addressing challenges in Kyrgyzstan.

Jenča visited Kyrgyzstan on 7 September 2011 with Pierre Morel, the EU Special Representative for Central Asia, and Adam Kobieracki, Director of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Conflict Prevention Centre. A joint statement issued on the same day reaffirmed the commitment of the UN, the OSCE and the EU “to support efforts towards stabilization, reconciliation, economic and social development and democratization in Kyrgyzstan.”

The first-ever report of the Secretary-General on the use of preventive diplomacy (S/2011/552) was released on 26 August 2011. The report noted that key elements to maximise preventive diplomacy’s chances of success were: early warning, flexibility, partnerships, sustainability, evaluation and resources. 

During the period since the last briefing by Jenča, intermittent political and crime-related violence in different parts of the region within the UNRCCA area of operation continued to flare up.

Background on UNRCCA

UNRCCA was inaugurated on 10 December 2007 as a special political mission by the Department of Political Affairs with the aim of assisting the countries of the region in building their conflict-prevention capacities. The Centre’s latest programme of action for 2012 to 2014 identifies three priority areas:

  • impact of trans-boundary threats facing the region (terrorism, organised crime and drug trafficking);
  • implications of national developments on regional stability; and
  • management of common natural resources and environmental degradation.
Key Issues

An issue for Council members is whether opportunities may exist for better use of preventive diplomacy tools in the region.

Another issue is the general security situation in the region, including threats posed by ethnic conflict, resource management concerns, terrorism and general instability.

An emerging issue is the potential impact for the region and UNRCCA’s role in this context of the upcoming withdrawal of most of the international troops from Afghanistan.

Options

One option for Council members is to simply receive the briefing.

Another option for Council members is to issue a press statement, as it has done on several occasions in the past, and reaffirm its support for UNRCCA’s activities in the region.

Council Dynamics

Some Council members are concerned about the recent fighting in the region, in particular the Gorno-Badakhshan province of Tajikistan adjacent to Afghanistan. Moreover, they feel that Afghanistan should also be included in the UNRCCA scope due to its regional significance.  

UN Documents
Secretary-General’s Report  
26 AUGUST 2011
S/2011/552 
Was the first-ever report on the use of preventive diplomacy.
Press Statements  
19 DECEMBER 2011
SC/10495 
Appreciated the implementation of the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy.
15 JULY 2011
SC/10327 
Appreciated the efforts of the UNRCCA as a UN mechanism for preventive diplomacy.
13 JANUARY 2011
SC/10151 
Welcomed the most recent briefing by Jenča and expressed appreciation for the work of UNRCCA in responding to challenges in the region, in particular in the context of recent developments in Kyrgyzstan.
Letters  
15 MAY 2007
S/2007/280 
Was a letter from the Security Council about the establishment of UNRCCA.
7 MAY 2007
S/2007/279 
Was a letter from the Secretary-General about the establishment of UNRCCA.