July 2012 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 June 2012
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Status Update

Central African Republic: On 6 June, Margaret Vogt, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in the CAR (BINUCA), briefed (S/PV.6780) the Council on the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2012/374) on the situation in the country. Vogt noted that though the overall security situation has improved, the CAR remains fragile. The arrest of four politico-military leaders early in the year on charges of plans to re-launch an armed rebellion and the suspension of consultations between the government and political parties on electoral matters exemplified the fragility of the situation, she said. The representative of the CAR also briefed the Council. No action was taken after the briefing.

Iran: On 7 June, the Council adopted resolution 2049 renewing the mandate of the Iran Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts (PoE) until 9 July next year. The only change from the previous year’s equivalent text was that the mandate was extended for 13 months instead of 12, so as to enable greater continuity of the PoE’s work during the mandate renewal period. (The Council will consider further extension of the mandate by 9 June 2013.) Agreement has been reached for this year’s PoE’s final report of 9 May (S/2012/395) to be published. The report contains 11 recommendations to the Sanctions Committee, including the designation of two companies for transporting prohibited arms from Iran bound for Syria. On 12 June, the Chair of the Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Néstor Osorio (Colombia), briefed the Council on the Committee’s work (S/PV.6786). An open briefing on the Committee’s work for the benefit of the membership at large is scheduled for 9 July.

Tribunals: On 7 June the Council held a debate on the ICTR/ICTY (S/PV.6782) where top officials of the two tribunals briefed the Council. The Presidents and Prosecutors of the tribunals told the Council that they had recently made great strides in completing their work and ensuring a transfer of remaining tasks to the so-called “Residual Mechanism”. They reported, however, that challenges to finishing all work on schedule by the completion date of December 2014 remained. On 29 June the Council adopted a resolution (S/RES/2054) extending three ICTR judges’ terms.

DPRK (North Korea): On 12 June, the Council adopted resolution 2050 extending the mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE) which assists the DPRK Sanctions Committee until 12 July 2013. The resolution was essentially a technical roll-over of last year’s resolution, although the Council extended the mandate for 13 instead of 12 months so as to enable greater continuity of the PoE’s work during the mandate renewal period. (The resolution expresses the Council’s intent to review the mandate and take appropriate renewal action by 12 June 2013.) Agreement was reached for the PoE’ final report of 12 May to be published (unlike the previous year’s report), and resolution 2050 gives the final report a UN document number (S/2012/422), although it has not yet been published on the Committee’s website.

Consultations with the AU PSC: On 13 June, at UN headquarters, Council members held their sixth annual consultative meeting with the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC). Issues discussed included: Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan, developments in the Sahel region of Africa, as well as the further strengthening of methods of work and cooperation between the two bodies. The closed informal meeting lasted about three hours and appears to have been less contentious and more substantive than some of the previous consultations. A detailed communiqué (S/2012/444) from the meeting possibly signals a shift toward a more substantive and less process-oriented phase in this relationship.

Mali: On 18 June, the Council issued a press statement (SC/10676) declaring its readiness to consider backing a military intervention in Mali as proposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) “once additional information has been provided regarding the objectives, means and modalities of the envisaged deployment and other possible measures.” The statement followed a 15 June meeting between Council members and a high-level delegation from ECOWAS to discuss the situation in Mali. The statement encouraged “a close cooperation between the Commission of ECOWAS, the Commission of the African Union, the United Nations Secretariat and countries in the region in order to prepare detailed options.”

Peacekeeping: On 20 June, the Council held a meeting (S/PV.6789) with Force Commanders from UN peacekeeping missions. The Force Commanders from the UN Stabilisation Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Lieutenant General Chander Prakash), UN Interim Force in Lebanon (Major General Paolo Serra), UN Mission in South Sudan (Major General Moses Bisong Obi), and UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (Major General Fernando Rodriguez Goulart) made presentations to the Council during the debate. No Council action resulted.

Myanmar: On 20 June, Council members were briefed in consultations on Myanmar by the Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Myanmar, Vijay Nambiar, who had recently returned from a visit to the country. Nambiar attended the Peace Donor Support Group, established by Norway to work with the government of Myanmar and other partners. Council members were updated on the recent troubles in the western Rakhine State, where the communal violence between the ethnic Rakhine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims has led to a humanitarian crisis.

Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict: On 25 June, the Council held its biannual open debate on protection of civilians in armed conflict (S/PV.6790 and Resumption 1). It featured briefings by the Secretary-General and by Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos, Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan Simonovic (who delivered a statement on behalf of High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay), as well as the Director for International Law and Cooperation at the International Committee of the Red Cross, Philip Spoerri (via video-link). In addition to Council members, more than 30 member states spoke. A key focus of the debate was the Secretary-General’s 22 May report on protection of civilians (S/2012/376), but speakers also raised a number of country-specific protection concerns, including Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria , and Yemen. There was no outcome.

Golan Heights: On 27 June, the Security Council adopted resolution 2052 renewing the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) through 31 December 2012 and noted that events elsewhere in Syria have started to manifest themselves in the area of responsibilities of UNDOF. On 21 June, Council members held consultations on the Secretary-General’s most recent UNDOF report (S/2012/403) and met with troop-contributing countries on 14 June.

Afghanistan: The Council held a debate (S/PV.6793) on the situation in Afghanistan on 27 June 2012 during which it considered the Secretary-General’s quarterly report (S/2012/462) on the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Hervé Ladsous, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping, and Yuri Fedotov, Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, briefed during the debate. There was no Council outcome.

Counter-Terrorism Committee: On 28 June, Council members held consultations on the activities of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED), which provides expert advice to the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee. The Chair of the Counter-Terrorism Committee, Ambassador Hardeep Singh Puri (India), briefed Council members on the Committee’s and CTED’s work. (Under resolution 1963, the Council decided that CTED would continue to operate as a special political mission under the policy guidance of the Counter-Terrorism Committee for three further years, until 31 December 2013.)

Liberia: On 29 June, the Council held consultations on Liberia after a briefing by DPKO Assistant Secretary-General Edmond Mulet. The briefing focused on the Secretary-General’s special report (S/2012/230) on the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) of 16 April 2012 requested by resolution 2008. Also on 15 June, the Chair of the Liberia Sanctions Committee submitted the midterm report (S/2012/448) of the Panel of Experts supporting the sanctions regime. This report was also discussed in consultations on 29 June. No Council action was taken.

UNOCA/LRA: On 29 June the Council received a briefing on the UN Office in Central Africa (UNOCA) and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) (S/PV.6796). Following the briefing the Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2012/18) strongly condemning the ongoing attacks carried out by the LRA in parts of central Africa; welcoming the development of the UN Regional Strategy to address the Threat and Impact of the Activities of the LRA; welcoming the strong collaboration between the UN and the AU in addressing the LRA threat, and encouraging its continuation; and welcoming the official launching of the AU-led Regional Cooperation Initiative against the LRA in March.

Democratic Republic of the Congo: The Council met several times in June regarding the DRC. On 6 June, the Council met with troop-contributing countries to the UN Stabilisation Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. (MONUSCO). On 12 June, the Council received a briefing (S/PV.6785) by Roger Meece, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of MONUSCO, on recent developments in the DRC, including a recent mutiny led by army officers which has caused a serious deterioration of security in the Kivus. Following the briefing the Council issued a press statement (SC/10672). On 26 June, the Council held consultations on DRC sanctions following receipt of the interim report of the Group of Experts on the DRC (S/2012/348). Ambassador Agshin Mehdiyev (Azerbaijan) briefed the Council in his capacity as Chair of the DRC Sanctions Committee. Finally, on 27 June the Council renewed MONUSCO’s mandate until 30 June 2013 (S/RES/2053).