June 2012 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 June 2012
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China will have the presidency of the Council in June. The one open debate planned, the semi-annual open debate on the protection of civilians in armed conflict, with likely briefings by Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos and High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay, is expected toward the end of the month.

Debates are planned on the International Criminal Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and for Rwanda, following a briefing by the two tribunals’ presidents and prosecutors; and on Afghanistan, following a briefing by Ján Kubiš, the head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).

A private meeting is scheduled following a briefing by the International Criminal Court prosecutor on Sudan.

Other briefings are expected on:

  • the Lord’s Resistance Army and the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA) by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNOCA, Abou Moussa;
  • Iran sanctions, by the Sanctions Committee (1737 Committee) Chair, Ambassador Néstor Osorio (Colombia);
  • peacekeeping, by several of the UN force commanders who will be at UN headquarters attending their annual meeting in New York;
  • the situation in the Central African Republic (CAR) by Margaret Vogt, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in CAR (BINUCA), to be followed by consultations;
  • developments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), by Roger Meece, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General (to be followed by consultations); and
  • developments in the Middle East, by the UN Secretariat (to be followed by consultations).

Briefings in consultations are expected to be heard on:

  • Syria, twice (Resolution 2043 that established the UN Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) requested reporting every 15 days), most likely following the past practice of hearing from UN-Arab League Joint Special Envoy on the mediation efforts and from the Department of Peacekeeping Operations on the activities of UNSMIS; 
  • the situation between Sudan and South Sudan, by the Secretariat, most likely twice (in accordance with resolution 2046 which requires reports every two weeks);
  • the UN Interim Security Force in Abyei (UNISFA);
  • the activities of the High-level Coordinator who advises the Council on the Iraq-Kuwait missing persons and property issue, by the coordinator, Gennady Tarasov;
  • the UN Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan Heights (UNDOF), by the Department of Peacekeeping Operations;
  • the Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC)/Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED) by the chair of the CTC, Ambassador Hardeep Singh Puri (India);
  • the DRC sanctions, by the Sanctions Committee Chair, Ambassador Agshin Mehdiyev (Azerbaijan); and
  • Liberia, on the Secretary-General’s special report by the Department of Peacekeeping Operations.

Consultations will likely also be held on:

  • Guinea-Bissau and the implementation of the measures against five members of the Military Command (set out in resolution 2048) and on an initial Secretary-General’s report on steps taken in the country to restore constitutional order, most likely by Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, B. Lynn Pascoe; and
  • Liberia sanctions, with a focus on the possible upcoming revisions to the targeted sanctions list.

The “horizon scanning” briefing by the Department of Political Affairs had not been scheduled at press time.

Mid-month, Council members are due to hold in New York their annual consultative meeting with the AU Peace and Security Council.

Formal sessions will be needed to adopt resolutions extending:

  • the mandate of MONUSCO;
  • the mandate of UNDOF;
  • the terms of four ICTR judges’ terms,
  • the Iran sanctions Panel of Experts; and
  • the mandate of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea sanctions Panel of Experts.

Full forecast