June 2012 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 June 2012
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Status Update

Threats to international peace and security posed by terrorism:  On 4 May, the Council heard a briefing from the Secretary General on the threats to international peace and security posed by terrorism. After a meeting presided over by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and attended by five high-level government officials (S/PV.6765), the Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2012/17). The statement recognised the changing nature and character of terrorism, with an increase in terrorist attacks around the world and emphasised the need to enhance coordination of efforts on the national, subregional, regional and international levels in order to strengthen a global response to this challenge.

Lebanon: On 8 May, Council members were briefed in informal consultations by Special Envoy Terje Rød-Larsen on the Secretary-General’s most recent report on the implementation of resolution 1559 (S/2012/244), which focused on the impact of the Syrian crisis on Lebanon, ongoing challenges in disarming militias, particularly Hezbollah, and the lack of progress in delineating the Syrian-Lebanese border.  On 29 May, Special Coordinator Robert Serry briefed Council members on the Middle East reporting on recent clashes in Tripoli and Beirut related to the crisis in Syria (S/PV.6775).

Counterterrorism Subcommittees: On 10 May, the chairs of the three counter-terrorism committees—the 1267/1989 Committee, the 1373 Committee and the 1540 Committee—briefed the Council, followed by a debate (S/PV.6767). Twenty-three countries and the head of EU delegation to the UN participated in the debate.

Libya: On 10 May, the Council received a briefing (S/PV.6768) from Ian Martin, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNSMIL.  Following Martin’s briefing, Ambassador José Filipe Moraes Cabral (Portugal)—as chair of the Libya Sanctions Committee—provided a regular update (S/PV.6768) on the Committee’s work, including a working document (S/2012/178) assessing the regional threats posed by the proliferation of arms from Libya, and a final report (S/2012/163) by the Panel of Experts on its monitoring of the implementation of the relevant measures, including the arms embargo, the travel ban and the asset freeze. The Council received its third briefing (S/PV.6772) on Libya, on 16 May, from the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno-Ocampo who updated the Council on the Court’s recent activities regarding Libya, particularly regarding Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, who was arrested on 19 November. The Prosecutor also briefed on gender-related crimes in Libya, allegation of crimes committed by NATO forces as well as by forces under the auspices of the National Transitional Council.

UNOWA: On 11 May, Said Djinnit, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of UNOWA, briefed Council members on the situation in Guinea-Bissau and Mali, where soldiers had seized power aborting electoral processes. Djinnit expressed concern at the resurgence of coups in the region and the impact this would have on peace and security. On 21 May,Djinnit attended the meeting between Council membersand ECOWAS in Côte d’Ivoire during the Security Council’s visiting mission to West Africa.

Kosovo: On 14 May, Farid Zarif, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNMIK, briefed the Council during a quarterly debate (S/PV.6769) on the Secretary-General’s most recent report (S/2012/275).The Foreign Ministers of Serbia and Kosovo also addressed the Council. Zarif praised the “highly professional facilitation” by the OSCE of Serbian general elections for Serbian citizens in Kosovo on 6 May which occurred without incident.

Bosnia and Herzegovina: On 15 May, the Council held a six-monthly debate on the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (S/PV.6771). Valentin Inzko, the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, briefed the Council on his latest report (S/2012/307). In addressing the Council, Inzko noted that 2012 has seen several positive developments, including the formation of a Council of Ministers and progress on two of the issues that are considered preconditions for the closure of the Office of the High Representative (OHR). Inzko also cited “less welcome” developments, including the continuation of statements challenging the statehood of Bosnia and Herzegovina. On 23 May, the Deputy High Representative announced that the Brčko Final Award Office will close later this year—another prerequisite for the closure of the OHR, although the Brčko Supervisor’s activities will be suspended, not formally terminated.

Somalia: On 15 May, the President of Somalia, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, briefed the Council on the work of the Transitional Federal Government (S/PV.6770), focusing on implementation of the road map for ending the transition in Somalia, reconciliation efforts, stabilisation and institution building. In the same meeting, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Somalia, Augustine Mahiga, briefed the Council on the Secretary-General’s latest report on Somalia (S/2012/283).  Mahiga emphasised that the transitional process had entered its most critical stage and called for logistical and financial support and international cooperation and coordination to enable the completion of the implementation of the road map before the 20 August deadline. He also raised the issue of spoilers, warning that such elements must be dealt with “before they succeed in undermining the peace process”.  (Mahigamet with the 751/1907 Sanctions Committee on 14 May to discuss this issue in more detail.) Council members subsequently issued a press statement (SC/10649) expressing concern that some of the deadlines of the roadmap had been missed, calling on all the signatories to “redouble their efforts to complete the road map tasks”, emphasising the importance of a transparent and legitimate political process and reiterating readiness to support measures against internal or external actors seeking to undermine or block the peace process in Somalia.

Israel/Palestine: On 29 May, Robert Serry, the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process briefed Council members (S/PV.6775).  Serry highlighted the recent quiet contact between Israelis and Palestinians as an opportunity, citing a recent exchange of letters between Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on their mutual positions for renewing direct talks.  However, he also said that the situation was fragile and the implication of a stalled peace process is moving towards a one state reality.  Serry also briefed the Council on progress with the Fatah-Hamas reconciliation, the new Palestinian Authority cabinet and Israeli coalition government and the recent hunger strike by more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners held by Israeli authorities.

Yemen: On 29 May, the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Yemen, Jamal Benomar, briefed the Council followed by closed consultations (S/PV.6776). Benomarhighlighted interference from former President Ali Abdullah Saleh and relatives as a key obstacle to President Abdrabuh Mansour Hadi’s reforms that could “derail Yemen’s fragile transition process.” Benomar also noted that Yemen’s security and humanitarian situation remain sources of major concern.On 21 May, media reports stated that 96 soldiers had died and many more were injured due to a suicide attacks which was condemned by the Security Council in a press statement the same day (SC/10656).

Nepal: On 29 May, Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe briefed the Council in consultations on Nepal where the Constituent Assembly expired on 27 May without the adoption of a new constitution, a key element in Nepal’s peace process. The Council had last discussed Nepal on 14 January 2011, prior to the expiry of the UN Mission in Nepal’s mandate.

Security Council Visiting Mission: On 31 March the Council heard briefings from the US, France and South Africa on the visiting mission to West Africa by Council members from 19 – 23 May. (S/2012/344)(The co-leads for each country were: the US and Morocco for the Liberia leg; France and Togo for the Côte d’Ivoire leg; and the UK and South Africa for the Sierra Leone leg. ) All three briefings gave an account of meetings held with leaders of the three countries, opposition and civil society representatives as well as the UN teams. The Council was also given an account of the ECOWAS meeting held in Abidjan which focused on Mali and Guinea Bissau.

Full Forecast