April 2012 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 March 2012
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Overview

The US will hold the presidency of the Security Council in April. 

An open debate on improving UN capacity to assist states to counter illicit cross-border flows is planned late in the month, and the Secretary-General is expected to brief. The aim of the debate is to focus attention on the broad range of UN activities in this field and to help states make a better use of different forms of UN assistance in controlling flows of arms, drugs and individuals, among other things, across their borders. A resolution or a presidential statement is the expected outcome.

There will also be the quarterly open debate on the Middle East, preceded by a briefing by the Secretariat.

On 27 April the Council will vote (simultaneously with the General Assembly) to fill a vacancy on the International Court of Justice.

A briefing by the Secretary-General on nuclear non-proliferation, disarmament and security is expected.  This event, taking place soon after the Seoul summit on nuclear security, will afford an opportunity to take stock of developments since the summit-level Council debate on this subject chaired in September 2009 by US President Barack Obama and to maintain the engagement on the part of the Council with this issue. A resolution or a presidential statement is expected as an outcome.

Other briefings are planned on:

  • Syria, by the Joint UN-Arab League Envoy for Syria, Kofi Annan, in consultations;
  • Western Sahara, by the head of MINURSO and Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Hany Abdel-Aziz, and by the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Western Sahara, Christopher Ross, in consultations;
  • UNAMID, the joint UN/AU operation in Darfur, to be followed by consultations;
  • the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq, by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and mission head, Martin Kobler, to be followed by consultations; 
  • the UN Interim Mission in Abyei, in consultations; and 
  • women, peace and security, by the head of UN Women, Michelle Bachelet, to be followed by consultations.

A briefing on the implementation of resolution 1559 and Lebanon, initially expected in April, appears to have been moved to May for scheduling reasons.

At press time the monthly “horizon scanning” briefing by the DPA was not planned for April.

The Council expects to hold consultations to consider the final report of the Panel of Experts that supports the Côte d’Ivoire Sanctions Committee and to discuss the renewal of the sanctions regime and the Panel’s mandate.

Formal Council sessions will be needed to adopt resolutions renewing the Côte d’Ivoire sanctions regime along with the mandate of its Panel of Experts and to renew the mandate of MINURSO.

Early in April, members of the Council will participate in an annual retreat with the Secretary-General. This year, the main topics expected to be discussed at the retreat are: the growing challenges posed to peace and security by international crime; experience from recent and current UN peacekeeping engagements, with an eye to possible improvements on the ground; and approaches at the Security Council’s disposal when dealing with gross human rights violations. 

It is likely that the chair of the Iran Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Néstor Osorio (Colombia), possibly with the coordinator of its Panel of Experts, will brief UN members at large with an aim to help interested states improve the implementation of the Iran sanctions.

Full Forecast

 

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