September 2011 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 August 2011
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Overview

Lebanon will preside over the Council during September, a month typically marked by the presence in New York of world leaders and high-level officials attending the start of the general debate at the General Assembly and a number of events held on its margins. Capitalising on this, Lebanon is planning to hold a meeting on preventive diplomacy that is to be chaired by President Michel Suleiman and will include a briefing by the Secretary-General. Several other Council members may also be represented at high-level during that meeting.

Debates are expected on three countries on the Council’s agenda:

  • on Haiti (in anticipation of the October renewal of MINUSTAH, the peacekeeping operation there);
  • on Afghanistan, following a briefing by the head of UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Staffan de Mistura; and
  • on Somalia, following a briefing by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Somalia, Augustine Mahiga, prior to the Council authorisation of the AU operation, AMISOM, expected towards the end of the month.

Several other briefings are expected:

  • on issues of concern, as the monthly “horizon scanning” exercise, by the DPA, in consultations;
  • on the UN mission in Sierra Leone, UNIPSIL, by its head Michael von der Schulenburg, to be followed by consultations;
  • on UNMIL, the mission in Liberia, also to be followed by consultations;
  • on Iran and Sudan, by the chair of the 1737 and 1591 Sanctions Committees, Ambassador Néstor Osorio (Colombia), to be followed by consultations in the case of Sudan;
  • on Sudan and South Sudan, on the Secretary-General’s second report on the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA);
  • on the Middle East, to be followed by consultations; and
  • on the Secretary-General’s assessment report on the status of the negotiations in Cyprus and related developments, by the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Cyprus, Alexander Downer (most likely by videoconference).

Formal sessions of the Council are expected to adopt resolutions on:

  • the renewal of UNIPSIL;
  • the renewal of UNMIL;
  • the authorisation of the AU mission in Somalia, AMISOM;
  • the appointment of the prosecutor of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR); and
  • possibly, the renewal of the redeployment of helicopters and crews from UNMIL to the operation in Côte d’Ivoire, UNOCI, authorised in resolution 1992 and scheduled to expire on 30 September.

At press time, the Council was due in September to receive its monthly briefing on Libya by the DPA and on the Libya sanctions, by the chair of the 1970 Sanctions Committee, Ambassador José Filipe Moraes Cabral (Portugal). Fast unfolding events on the ground are likely to change this, including by possibly adding a formal meeting to adopt a resolution establishing a post-conflict UN presence in Libya. 

The coming month will mark the tenth anniversary of the terrorist attacks in the US. The Counter-Terrorism Committee is expected to hold a special day-long event on 28 September marking the tenth anniversary of the adoption of resolution 1373.

full forecast 

 

Sign up for SCR emails