November 2010 Monthly Forecast

Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues in the Council during October included:

Terrorism: On 25 October the members of the Council condemned the 23 October terrorist attack on a UN office in Herat, Afghanistan and reiterated their serious concern over the threats posed by the Taliban, Al-Qaida and other extremist groups (SC/10070). On 4 October the members of the Council condemned the 1 October terrorist bombings that occurred in Abuja, Nigeria which killed a dozen people (SC/10048).

Security Council Elections: On 12 October the General Assembly elected Colombia, Germany, India, Portugal and South Africa to two-year terms on the Security Council. The five new members will take up their seats on 1 January and will serve on the Security Council for the period 2011-2012. The new members will fill vacancies left by Austria, Japan, Mexico, Turkey and Uganda, whose two-year terms end on 31 December.

Afghanistan: On 13 October the Council extended the authorisation of ISAF in Afghanistan for one year (S/PV.6395). Resolution 1943 highlighted commitments by the Afghan government from the London and Kabul Conferences to strengthen measures to fight corruption and recognised the international community’s support for a phased transition to full Afghan responsibility for security.

Peacebuilding: On 13 October the Council held a debate to consider the progress report of the Secretary-General on peacebuilding in the immediate aftermath of conflict (S/2010/386) as well as the report of the Secretary-General on women’s participation in peacebuilding (S/2010/466). The Council adopted a statement reiterating its request to the Secretary-General to move forward with efforts to further clarify roles and responsibilities in core peacebuilding areas, to strengthen capacities and ensure greater accountability in the delivery of assistance. It reiterated the importance of national ownership and early and predictable funding for those efforts. The Council took note of the Secretary-General’s report on Women’s participation in Peacebuilding and anticipated the report’s consideration by all parts of the UN system, including the new Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (S/PRST/2010/20). At press time it was expected that the Council would adopt a resolution formalizing the outcome of the peacebuilding review, in a parallel action with the General Assembly.

Haiti: On 14 October, the Council adopted resolution 1944, renewing the mandate of the UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) for a period of 12 months. The resolution maintains MINUSTAH’s current force level and calls on the Secretary-General to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the security environment following the 28 November elections and transfer of power to a new government in 2011. It also stresses that these elections must be free, fair, inclusive and transparent for stabilization in the country.

Nepal: On 14 October the Council was briefed (S/PV.6398) by B. Lynn Pascoe, the Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, following his visit to Nepal on 6 and 7 October (SC/10053). He told Council members that the political impasse in Nepal remained and that no breakthrough had been achieved. He also said that he had made it clear that UNMIN would cease after 15 January 2011 as decided in resolution 1939. On 20 October the Council issued a press statement (SC/10062) reiterating support for Nepal’s peace process and underlined the importance of the implementation of a clear work plan for the supervision, integration and rehabilitation of former combatants.

Chad/CAR: On 20 October Special Representative and head of MINURCAT, Youssef Mahmoud, briefed the Council on the situation in Chad, CAR and the subregion (S/PV.6406). He expressed appreciation to the Government of Chad for helping ensure an orderly and secure withdrawal. He noted that the security situation in eastern Chad remained calm, but the humanitarian situation was of concern. He described the security situation in northeastern CAR as volatile and worrisome and said that everything must be done to help the government deploy additional forces in Birao ahead of MINURCAT’s withdrawal. He also presented the Secretary-General’s most recent report (S/2010/529) on progress in the mission’s withdrawal.

AU Peacekeeping: On 22 October the Council held a debate to consider the Secretary-General on assistance to AU peacekeeping operations authorised by the UN (S/2010/514). The Council adopted a presidential statement reaffirming its commitment to strengthening its partnership with the AU Peace and Security Council and expressed its determination to continue working towards a more predictable solution to funding challenges confronting the AU’s peacekeeping operations. The Council called on the AU to work towards implementation of a long-term and comprehensive capacity-building strategic framework in consultation with the UN and other international partners (S/PRST/2010/21).

Women, Peace and Security: On 26 October the First Deputy Prime Minister of Uganda, Eriya Kategaya, presided over an open debate (S/PV.6411) to commemorate the 10th anniversary of resolution 1325 on women, peace and security. The Council was briefed by the Secretary-General (via a pre-recorded message), the head of UN Women, Michelle Bachelet, the head of UN peacekeeping, Alain Le Roy, the President of the Economic and Social Council, Hamidon Ali and a member of the Civil Society Advisory Group on Women, Peace and Security, Thelma Awori. Austria, Japan and the US were represented by cabinet ministers. Seventy UN member states and international organisations addressed the Council.

The Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2010/22), welcoming the report of the Secretary-General on women, peace and security (S/2010/498) and supporting taking forward the indicators contained in the annex of the report as an initial framework for the UN system and member states to track implementation of resolution 1325. The Council requested the Secretary-General to propose in his next annual report a strategic framework to guide the UN’s implementation of resolution 1325 over the next decade and expressed its intention to convene a high-level review in five years. There was no mention of any adjustments to the Council’s working methods with regard to considering women, peace and security across the Council’s agenda.

The debate was preceded on 19 October by an Arria formula meeting between the Council and civil society, chaired by Austria, Mexico and the UK.

International Court of Justice (ICJ): On 27 October the president of the ICJ, Hisashi Owada of Japan, briefed the Council in a private meeting (S/PV.6412). Owada’s briefing coincided with his presentation to the General Assembly of the Court’s annual report (A/65/4).
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