October 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2010
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
AMERICAS

Haiti

Expected Council Action
The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the peacekeeping mission in Haiti for another 12 months. The mandate expires on 15 October. 

Key Recent Developments
On 13 September Edmond Mulet, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), briefed the Council on the latest developments. Mulet said much progress has been made since the January earthquake in addressing the immediate humanitarian needs of the population. MINUSTAH has shifted its focus to three main areas: ensuring a secure and stable environment; natural-disaster response; and supporting the authorities in preparation for the anticipated presidential and legislative elections of 28 November.

The Secretary-General’s report states that 1,723 additional military personnel out of the 2,000 additional troops authorised by the Council have been deployed as of 17 August. Likewise, as of 15 August, 3,019 police personnel out of the 4,391 authorised by the Council have been deployed. According to the report, the surge of personnel has permitted the building of the capacity of the Haitian National Police and expansion of police and military presence to help ensure the physical security of an estimated 1.3 million displaced persons.

The report also notes MINUSTAH’s capacity-building efforts in the form of logistical support and technical assistance given to several government ministries.

Haiti is assessed as calm but fragile, with a potential for social unrest and instability, especially during the elections period. MINUSTAH has been conducting consultations with a wide range of local actors in order to build trust in the political process and address concerns raised by some political opposition and civil society groups about the impartiality of the Provisional Electoral Council, the body charged with holding the elections.

The report recommends maintaining the current troop and police levels until after the November elections. Upon the establishment of a new government, a fresh assessment of the security situation in the country may allow a draw-down plan for the mission to be developed.

During the 13 September debate, Council members and members of the Group of Friends (composed of Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, France, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and the US) expressed their appreciation for the achievements of MINUSTAH and their support for the renewal of its mandate. Haitian Ambassador Leo Mérorès stressed the interrelations between the legitimacy of the November elections and the elected government’s ability to carry out effective reconstruction efforts. He also called on the international community to release the funds pledged to Haiti at the Donors Conference on 31 March.

Human Rights-Related Developments

In his report on MINUSTAH published on 1 September, the Secretary-General noted that “Haiti is now entering a period of change which will be critical to its future stability. The most immediate challenge, besides reconstruction, is the organization of presidential and legislative elections.” Earlier, on 26 August, Haiti’s president and the secretary general of the Organization of American States (OAS) met in Port-au-Prince to review the progress of an OAS project to establish a system to update the electoral census for the November elections. The immediate goal of the project is to improve the digital civil-registry system to overcome the loss of citizens’ identity cards in the earthquake. The OAS has deployed mobile units to help with voter registration as the first stage of this project.

Key Issue
A key issue for the Council in renewing the MINUTSAH mandate is whether the level of military and police personnel, as recently increased by resolutions 1908 and 1927, remains appropriate in light of the anticipated elections and ongoing security needs.

Underlying Problems
Contributing to the fragile environment in Haiti are the political uncertainty related to the forthcoming elections and the continuing large number of displaced people living in 1,300 camps, where they are exposed to physical insecurity and, increasingly, forced eviction.

Another underlying problem is the slow donor assistance disbursement rates. The various sources of funding need improved coordination, and the Interim Haiti Recovery Commission (co-chaired by Haitian Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive and UN Special Representative Bill Clinton) has yet to demonstrate that it is on top of the issue.

Options
Options for the Council include:

  • renewing the mandate of MINUSTAH as it currently stands, as recommended by the Secretary General;
  • renewing the mandate of MINUSTAH with a provision for reassessing the mission following the elections; or
  • altering the composition or mandate of MINUSTAH in a more substantive way (a less likely option at this time).

Council and Wider Dynamics
There seems to be widespread support among Council members for maintaining the current mandate, as recommended by the Secretary-General.

Some Council members would like to anticipate a comprehensive reassessment of the security situation after the elections. Other members, in particular members of the Group of Friends, remain cautious about any timetable or plan for reducing MINUSTAH’s overall composition at this stage.

Some permanent members continue to emphasise that MINUSTAH should focus just on the maintenance of a secure environment and avoid involvement in reconstruction efforts. They envisage the peacekeeping operation shifting to a mainly civilian effort as soon as possible.

As in the past, the Group of Friends continues to play a key role in discussions regarding Haiti. A draft circulated by the Group will likely form the basis for negotiations in the Council regarding the renewal of the mandate.

UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1927 (4 June 2010) expressed concern over new challenges and threats resulting from the 12 January earthquake in Haiti, authorised the deployment of 680 additional officers for the police component of MINUSTAH as a temporary surge with a particular focus on building the capacity of the Haitian National Police and encouraged the mission, within available means, to provide temporary logistical and technical support to the Government of Haiti that will be phased out as Haiti’s national capacity grows.
  • S/RES/1908 (19 January 2010) bolstered the troop and police personnel for MINUSTAH by 1,500 additional police and 2,000 additional military personnel.
  • S/RES/1892 (13 October 2009) renewed the mandate of MINUSTAH until 15 October 2010.

Latest Secretary-General’s Report

Selected Presidential Statements

  • S/PRST/2010/7 (16 April 2010) was adopted during an open debate on peacebuilding.
  • S/PRST/2010/2 (12 February 2010) was on UN peacekeeping operations’ transition and exit strategies.
  • S/PRST/2009/24 (5 August 2009) was on integration of peacebuilding in peacekeeping missions.
  • S/PRST/2009/23 (22 July 2009) was on post-conflict peacebuilding.

Selected Letter

  • S/2010/27 (18 January 2010) was from Mexico to the Council arguing for a realignment of MINUSTAH’s mandate.

Selected Meeting Record

  • S/PV.6382 (13 September 2010) was the most recent debate on MINUSTAH.

Other

  • E/2010/102 (14 July 2010) was an ECOSOC report of the Ad Hoc Advisory Group on Haiti.

Other Relevant Facts

Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of MINUSTAH

Edmond Mulet (Guatemala)

Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General

Kevin Kennedy (US)

Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General (Ad Interim) and UN Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator (Ad Interim)

Nigel Fisher (Canada)

UN Special Envoy for Haiti

Bill Clinton (US)

Force Commander

Major-General Luiz Guilherme Paul Cruz (Brazil)

Police Commissioner

Geraldo Chaumont (Argentina)

Size and Composition of Mission

  • Authorised strength as of 4 June 2010: military component of up to 8,940 military personnel and police component of up to 4,391 officers.
  • Current strength as of 31 July 2010: 11,568 total uniformed personnel, including 8,603 troops and 2,965 police. (As of 31 May 2010 the uniformed personnel are supported by 473 international civilian personnel, 1,235 local civilian staff and 193 UN volunteers.)
  • Contributors of military personnel: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Ecuador, France, Guatemala, India, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, the US and Uruguay.
  • Contributors of police personnel: Argentina, Bangladesh, Benin, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Canada, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, China, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Croatia, Egypt, El Salvador, France, Grenada, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, India, Indonesia, Italy, Jamaica, Jordan, Kyrgyzstan, Lithuania, Madagascar, Mali, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Romania, Russian Federation, Rwanda, Senegal, Serbia, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, the US, Uruguay and Yemen.

Cost

1 July 2010 – 31 December 2010: $380 million

Full forecast