August 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 July 2010
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
ASIA

DPRK

Expected Council Action
In August the chair of the DPRK Sanctions Committee is expected to give his quarterly briefing to the Council. No new Council decision is expected.

Key Recent Developments

The last briefing by the chair of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee was on 27 May in informal consultations. It focused on the report of the Panel of Experts assisting the Committee, which was submitted to the Council in early May. The report assessed the implementation of the sanctions regime imposed in resolutions 1718 and 1874 (i.e. an embargo related to arms and weapons of mass destruction, a ban on selected goods including luxury items, a travel ban and an assets freeze).

The Panel’s findings were reported to have indicated that the sanctions had an effect in restricting exports and imports of proscribed goods. However, Pyongyang was said to have devised ways to circumvent the sanctions in some cases by using several individuals and companies that were not subject to the sanctions as intermediaries to trade in the embargoed items.

On 7 June the Council adopted a resolution that:

  • extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts that assists the DPRK Sanctions Committee until 12 June 2011; and
  • requested the Panel “to provide to the Council no later than 12 November 2010 a midterm report on its work, and a final report to the Council no later than 30 days prior to the termination of its mandate with its findings and recommendations.”

Key Issues

One key issue for the Sanctions Committee and the Council is whether the sanctions regime is effective.

A second key issue for the Council is whether and how the six-party talks (i.e. between the DPRK, China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the US), which has been the most viable forum for negotiations aimed at achieving a sustainable resolution of the DPRK nuclear disarmament issue can be renewed.

Underlying Problems

One persisting problem has been the lack of trust between the DPRK and other members of the six-party talks. Recent military tensions on the Korean peninsula, coupled with the history of alleged DPRK attempts to conceal its nuclear weapons programme, have intensified the problem.

Options

Options include:

  • taking no public action at present; or
  • sending a further warning to the DPRK by designating additional entities, individuals and goods that are subject to the sanctions imposed in resolutions 1718 and 1874.

Council Dynamics

Council members expect the upcoming quarterly briefing by the chair of the DPRK committee to be low key and focusing on the activities of the committee over the preceding three months. There seem to be no plans among Council members for expanding the scope of the current sanctions regime at this stage.

UN Documents

Selected Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1928 (7 June 2010) extended the mandate of the panel of experts that assists the DPRK Sanctions Committee until 12 June 2011.
  • S/RES/1887 (24 September 2009) reaffirmed that nuclear proliferation is a threat to international peace and security.
  • S/RES/1874 (12 June 2009) condemned the DPRK’s underground nuclear test and expanded sanctions on the country.
  • S/RES/1718 (14 October 2006) expressed grave concern over the DPRK’s nuclear test, imposed sanctions and set up a sanctions committee.
  • S/RES/1695 (15 July 2006) condemned the DPRK’s launch of ballistic missiles.
  • S/RES/825 (11 May 1993) called on the DPRK to reconsider withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and to honour its non-proliferation obligations under the treaty.

Selected Presidential Statement

Latest Sanction Committee Annual Report

Selected Letters

  • S/2009/416 (12 August 2009) was from the Secretary-General informing the Council of the appointment of the panel of experts.
  • S/2009/364 (16 July 2009) was from the Sanctions Committee designating additional entities and materials, as well as individuals subject to sanctions.
  • S/2009/222 (24 April 2009) was from the Sanctions Committee designating new entities and materials subject to sanctions.
  • S/2009/205 (14 April 2009) was from the Sanctions Committee updating items, equipment, goods and technology prohibited from being imported or exported by the DPRK.

Other Relevant Facts

Chair of the 1718 Sanctions Committee

Ertugrul Apakan (Turkey)

Full forecast