August 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 July 2010
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Overview

Russia will hold the presidency of the Security Council in August. Mandates of two operations will come up for renewal.

Early in the month and prior to the mandate expiring on 7 August the Council is expecting a briefing on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq, most likely by the Special Representative for the Secretary-General, Ad Melkert. This is likely to be followed by consultations.

In late August, the Council is expected to hold consultations on the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, prior to the renewal of the mandate.

Formal sessions will be held to adopt both resolutions.

A briefing by the head of the UN Mission in Kosovo, Lamberto Zannier, followed by a debate, is expected early in the month.

The Council is also expected to have a briefing on UN peacekeeping from a number of UN force commanders and the Secretariat, possibly to be followed by a debate.

A debate on the issue of piracy off the coast of Somalia is also likely. The Secretary-General’s report on possible options for ensuring prosecution and imprisonment of those responsible for piracy will be considered.

Other briefings expected are:

  • In consultations, by Miroslav JenĨa, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). He is expected to give particular attention to Kyrgyzstan.
  • On MINURCAT, the operation in Chad and Central African Republic, most likely by its head, Youssef Mahmoud, to be followed by consultations.
  • On the Middle East, also to be followed by consultations which are likely to focus on the situation in Gaza and a possible shift from proximity to direct peace talks.
  • On the work of the DPRKsanctions committee, by its chair (Turkey).

Although no specific events are scheduled at press time, Council members are also likely to be giving thought to:

  • the situation in Sudan, in particular the implementation of the CPA;
  • the upcoming renewal of the mandate in Liberia on which the Council will have received a Secretary-General’s report;
  • peacebuilding with two reports on the subject before the Council; and
  • counter-terrorism, having just completed (through its sanctions committee) a major task of reviewing the Al-Qaida and Taliban sanctions consolidated list.

The drafting of the Council’s annual report to the General Assembly under the leadership of Council’s July presidency (Nigeria) is expected to continue in August.

Full forecast