July 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 July 2010
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues in the Council during June included:

International Court of Justice: On 2 June the Council in resolution 1926 set 9 September as the date for the election to fill the vacancy at the ICJ following the resignation of Judge Thomas Buergenthal (US). On 29 June the Council elected Xue Hanqin (China) to replace Judge Shi Jiuyong who resigned from ICJ on 28 May 2010 (S/PV.6346 and resumption 1). (The General Assembly also independently elected Judge Xue in accordance with the ICJ statute.)

Côte d’Ivoire: On 3 June the Council was briefed by the head of the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire, Choi Young-jin, on the latest Secretary-General’s UNOCI report (S/2010/245).The Council extended the mandate of UNOCI until the end of 2010 on 30 June (S/RES/1933).

Haiti: On 4 June the Council adopted resolution 1927 which authorised the deployment of 680 additional officers for the police component of MINUSTAH as a temporary surge with a particular focus on building the capacity of the Haitian national police. The resolution recognised in the post-earthquake context the need for MINUSTAH to assist the government in protecting internally displaced persons and women and children, including through additional joint community policing in camps and strengthened mechanisms to address sexual and gender-based violence, and to address the risk of resurgence in gang violence, organised crime and trafficking of children. The resolution encouraged the mission, within available means, to provide temporary logistical and technical support to the government of Haiti that will be phased out as Haiti’s national capacity grows.

DPRK: On 7 June the Council extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts that assists the DPRK Sanctions Committee until 12 June 2011 (S/RES/1928).

Iran: On 9 June the Council in resolution 1929 approved enhanced sanctions against Iran. Brazil and Turkey voted against and Lebanon abstained. Before the voting both Brazil and Turkey explained their position in light of Iran’s positive response to the fuel swap plan they brokered in May. The resolution requests the Secretary-General to establish a panel of experts for a period of one year to assist the Committee in carrying out its work. It also stresses the willingness of the sponsors (China, Germany, France, Russia, the UK and the US) to enhance diplomatic efforts and dialogue with Iran and affirms that sanctions measures will be suspended if Iran complies with existing resolutions but further measures will be adopted if the IAEA reports noncompliance on the part of Iran. (An IAEA report is requested within ninety days.)

Cyprus: On 10 June Council members in informal consultations heard a briefing by the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Cyprus, Alexander Downer. (The most recent UNFICYP report is S/2010/264 and the most recent good offices report is S/2010/238.) On 15 June in resolution 1930 the Council extended UNFICYP’s mandate for six months. Turkey voted against (S/PV.6339). The resolution welcomed progress made in the negotiations, urged the parties to “intensify the momentum of negotiations” and looked forward to decisive progress “consistent with the hope expressed by the two sides on 21 December 2009, that, if possible, 2010 would be the year of solution”. In an explanation of vote following the adoption, Turkey reiterated its objections to the references in the text to the Greek Cypriot government as the government of the whole island, but said it welcomed the resolution’s language relating to the Secretary-General’s good offices mission and expectations for a solution in 2010. On 2 June the Secretary-General announced the appointment of Lisa Buttenheim (US) as his new Special Representative for Cyprus and head of UNFICYP.

Naval Incident in the Yellow Sea: On 14 June the Council held an informal interactive dialogue with delegations from the ROK and the DPRK on the sinking of the Cheonan vessel (the two parties addressed the Council separately). In a statement made to the press after the informal interactive dialogue Council president Claude Heller (Mexico) said the Council was gravely concerned with the incident and its impact on peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, called on the parties to refrain from any act that could escalate tensions in the region and said the Council would continue its consultations on the incident.

On 30 June, Council president Heller provided Council members in informal consultations with an update on the intensive process of discussions and bilateral consultations which he had undertaken, in his capacity as President of the Council, on the situation. In remarks to the press, he said the issue remains sensitive. He referred to the need to respond to the ROK’s request that the Council consider the matter. Council members seem likely to continue interacting informally and discussing next steps.

Kyrgyzstan: The Council had two briefings on Kyrgyzstan in June. The first one by Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe was on 14 June. Following the briefing in his remarks to the press the president of the Council said that members of the Council expressed support for the efforts of the Secretary-General and regional organisations, condemned the continued violence, supported the delivery of humanitarian aid and called for calm. On 24 June the Council received a briefing by Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs Oscar Fernandez-Taranco where it was told that ethnic tensions remained high in Kyrgyzstan. He also told the Council that aid deliveries were being disrupted by security concerns. Both briefings were held under the agenda item UN Regional Centre for Preventative Diplomacy for Central Asia.

Children and Armed Conflict: The Council held an open debate (S/PV.6341 and res. 1) on children and armed conflict on 16 June. There were over sixty speakers including Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict Radhika Coomaraswamy, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Atul Khare, Deputy Executive Director of UNICEF Hilde Frafjord Johnson and a former Nepalese child soldier. In the presidential statement (S/PRST/2010/10) issued after the debate the Council reiterated its strong condemnation of violations of international law involving recruitment, killing and maiming, rape and sexual violence, abductions, attacks against schools or hospitals and denial of humanitarian access by parties to armed conflict. It also expressed concern about the growing number of attacks against schools and educational facilities. In addition, the Council expressed deep concern over persistent violators and expressed its readiness to adopt targeted and graduated measures against them. It also invited the Working Group to exchange pertinent information with relevant sanctions committees and for sanctions committees to regularly invite the Special Representative on Children and Armed Conflict. Other areas highlighted in the presidential statement included strengthening the monitoring and reporting mechanism and the need for parties that had not done so to prepare and implement action plans to halt recruitment, killing and maiming and/or rape and sexual violence against children.

International Criminal Tribunals: On 18 June the presidents and prosecutors of the ICTY and ICTR briefed the Council on implementation of the Tribunals’ completion strategies (S/PV.6342) based on their latest progress reports (S/2010/270 and S/2010/259). The president of ICTY, Patrick Robinson, reported that there had been a “significant slippage in the trial schedule”. Both Robinson and the ICTR president, Dennis Byron, focused in particular on the difficult situation regarding staff retention and called on the Council to adopt a statement acknowledging the problem and calling on relevant UN bodies to address it. The ICTY Prosecutor Serge Brammertz said the arrest of the two remaining high-level fugitives, Ratko Mladić and Goran Hadžić, remained the highest priority for his office. While Brammertz said the cooperation of states in the region had been adequate, ICTR Prosecutor Hassan Bubacar Jallow expressed regret over Kenya’s continued unwillingness to cooperate in the case of Felicien Kabuga. The Council adopted resolution 1931 on 29 June extending the mandates of the ICTY judges in response to a request by its president (S/2010/330) as well as resolution 1932 extending the mandates of the ICTR judges and amending the ICTR statute as requested by its president (S/2010/289).

Afghanistan: Members of the Security Council visited Afghanistan from 21-24 June. The mission was led by Turkey, the lead country for Afghanistan in the Council. At the end of their visit members of the Council expressed their continued support for Afghanistan’s efforts to build a lasting peace, stressed the need for free and fair elections, improved governance and the upholding of human rights. In Kabul members of the Council met with senior government officials, including Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, representatives of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, the Independent Electoral Commission, and the Electoral Complaints Commission, as well as international stakeholders. The mission also included a visit to Jalalabad in eastern Afghanistan. At press time, the Council was expected to hold a debate on 30 June and be briefed by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative to Afghanistan, Staffan de Mistura on the Secretary-General’s latest UNAMA report (S/2010/318). The Council was also expected to receive an oral report of the recent mission to Afghanistan from Turkey.

Burundi: On 23 June the Council issued a press statement (SC/9959) urging all political stakeholders to participate fully in the electoral process and to work to ensure proper conduct of the 28 June presidential election.

Security Council Retreat: From 24 to 26 June, the Council held an informal ambassadorial-level retreat in Istanbul, continuing its discussion on the linkage between peacekeeping, peacemaking and peacebuilding.

Central African Republic (CAR): On 28 June Special Representative Sahle-Work Zewde briefed the Council on the Secretary-General’s first BINUCA report (S/2010/295). The Council issued a press statement noting the postponement of presidential and legislative elections stressing the importance of moving forward quickly to free, fair, transparent and credible elections; expressed concern regarding the slow pace of DDR implementation; and condemned the attacks by the LRA in the country (SC/9963).

Justice and Rule of Law: On 29 June the Council held an open debate on rule of law chaired by Mexican Deputy Foreign Minister Juan Manuel Gómez Robledo. The Council approved a presidential statement (S/PRST/2010/11)which asked the Secretary-General to submit a report within a year on the promotion of the rule of law in conflict and post-conflict situations, assessing progress since the last report on this issue in 2004 (S/2004/616).

Golan Heights: On 30 June, following consideration of the latest Secretary-General’s report (S/2010/296), the Council adopted resolution 1934 which renewed the UNDOF mandate until 31 December.
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