March 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 March 2010
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AFRICA

Liberia

Expected Council Action
In March the Council will discuss the Secretary-General’s report on UNMIL. Ellen Margrethe Loj, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative in Liberia will brief. Developments over the last five months and progress in meeting key benchmarks are likely to be discussed. Most members appear content with the progress being made. No new decisions are expected at this point.

Under resolution 1885 UNMIL’s mandate continues until 30 September 2010.

Key Recent Developments
On 26 February four people were killed and 25 wounded in the northern Liberian region of Lofa County and churches and mosques damaged in inter-communal clashes. The UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) sent a formed police unit and military personnel to assist the national police. A curfew was imposed on the area and an investigation is expected into the incident.

On 17 December 2009 the Council adopted resolution 1903, renewing for 12 months targeted sanctions on persons seen as a threat to Liberia. The Council also adjusted the arms embargo so that it would not apply to arms and related materiel used by the UNMIL for training Liberian authorities. The Council also extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts monitoring the implementation of the sanctions until 20 December 2010.

In December the Sanctions Committee on Liberia removed Ali Kleilat, a businessman involved in arms delivery to Charles Taylor, from the list.

On 17 February the Secretary-General’s latest report was circulated to the Council. It said that although Liberia continues to make progress towards peace and stability, significant challenges remained in the development of security and legal institutions. It also identified adequate financial resources as crucial to continued progress in Liberia.

Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf announced on 25 January that she would be a candidate in the 2011 elections.

A by-election for a senate seat in Monteserrado County was held on 10 November 2009, with a run-off on 24 November. The by-election revealed some of the weaknesses of the National Elections Commission particularly in logistics and dissemination of information. However, many of the problems were addressed in the subsequent run-off election.

On 1 January the Liberian government took over full responsibility for the development of the army although ongoing training and development requirements make it unlikely that the Armed Forces of Liberia will be independently operational before 2012.

UNMIL is in the middle of the third phase of its drawdown and expects to repatriate 2,029 military personnel from its current 9,150 by May 2010.

A working group on transition planning, made up of the UN Country Team and UNMIL, was created following the adoption of resolution 1885 in September 2009. It is working on developing a comprehensive plan for the future UN role in Liberia with a focus on effective transition during UNMIL’s drawdown.

On 22 February, George Boley, former leader of the Liberian Peace Council, an insurgent group implicated in numerous abuses during the 14 years of civil war, was arrested in the US.

Human Rights-Related Developments

The final edited report of Liberia’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission was released on 1 December 2009. The report makes over 140 recommendations intended to redress Liberia’s legacy of conflict and human rights violations. The Commission found that all warring factions were responsible for gross human rights violations in Liberia, including war crimes and crimes against humanity. The report recommends more than 120 individuals by name for prosecution, including persons associated with all the major warring factions. Human Rights Watch has called for the legislature to back prosecutions for serious crimes in accordance with international standards and for key international partners to provide relevant support, including technical and financial assistance. Liberia’s legislature is expected to consider the Commission’s recommendations early in 2010.

Key Issues
A key issue is the type of oversight role that the Council needs to play as UNMIL moves towards an exit. Given the Council’s recent interest in the integration of peacemaking, peacekeeping, peacebuilding and development, an issue is how to give effect to this in practice as UNMIL begins its transition.

A related issue is ensuring that UNMIL continues to perform its key functions effectively during the drawdown phase.

Another issue is identifying lessons learnt from the November 2009 senatorial by-election that could help the National Elections Commission prepare for the 2011 presidential elections. A significant issue is the potential destabilising effect from the political situations in neighbouring Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire.

A further issue is what the Council can do to encourage greater progress in building security and rule-of-law institutions, given that these areas are closely tied to UNMIL’s exit strategy.

With the challenging financial environment, obtaining sustained funding from donors is increasingly an issue.

Underlying Problems
A potential looming problem is possible backlash from the Liberian people as the government begins to implement the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s recommendations. There appear to be deep divisions over the main issues in the report.

Another problem is the reaction to Sirleaf’s candidacy in the 2011 elections given that the Commission recommended that she face a thirty-year sanction from holding public office for her early support of Charles Taylor (in his initial rebellion against former President Samuel Doe).

There continue to be security problems stemming from a lack of public confidence in the justice system, tensions between the Armed Forces of Liberia and other security agencies, and ex-combatants who easily resort to violence. Illegal cross-border activities have been kept under control partly because of UNMIL’s presence but could become a larger problem as the mission draws down.

Options
The most likely option for the Council is to listen to the Secretary-General’s briefing and to have a discussion on developments in Liberia and UNMIL’s progress in meeting its core benchmarks.

Council Dynamics
Most members do not feel the need for any decisions to be taken at this point. Although some members have indicated in the past that they would like to see UNMIL move more expeditiously towards a transition and exit strategy, there appears to be awareness that no further downsizing should occur until the 2011 elections are over. The African members and the US are particularly keen to ensure that UNMIL does not make a premature exit from Liberia.

Some members see UNMIL as a good case study of how peacekeeping and peacebuilding functions can overlap in a mission that is moving towards exit and may wish to discuss this aspect further, taking into account the debate on transition and exit strategies in peacekeeping held on 12 February. There may be interest in having more information on the comprehensive plan being developed by the working group on transition planning.

The US is the lead country on this issue in the Council.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1903(17 December 2009) renewed the sanctions regime for Liberia for a further 12 months and extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts until 20 December 2010.
  • S/RES/1885 (15 September 2009) renewed UNMIL’s mandate for 12 months.

Selected Secretary-General’s Reports

  • S/2010/ 88 (17 February 2010) was the report on UNMIL.
  • S/2007/479 (8 August 2007) was the initial drawdown plan for UNMIL.

Other

  • S/2009/640 (11 December 2009) was the report of the Panel of Experts on Liberia.

Other Relevant Facts

Special Representative of the Secretary-General

Ellen Margrethe Loj (Denmark)

UNMIL Force Commander

Lieutenant-General A.T.M Zahirul Alam (Bangladesh)

UNMIL: Size, Composition and Cost

  • Strength as of 1 February 2010: 9,360 personnel, including 9150 troops, 126 military observers and 84 staff officers
  • Key contributing countries: Bangladesh, Nigeria and Pakistan
  • Cost: 1 July 2009 to 30 June 2010: US$561 million

UNMIL: Duration

September 2003 to present; mandate expires 30 September 2010

Chairman of the Liberia Sanctions Committee

Ivan Barbalić (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Panel of Experts on Liberia

  • Thomas R. Creal (US, expert on finance)
  • Wynet V. Smith (Canada, expert on natural resources and coordinator of the Panel)
  • Hervé Gonsolin (France, expert on arms)

Full forecast

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