March 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 March 2010
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Guinea-Bissau

Expected Council Action
In March the Council is expected to consider the first report of the Secretary-General on the new Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau known as UNIOGBIS. Joseph Mutaboba is expected to introduce the report to the Council. The mandate of the office expires on 31 December.

Key Recent Developments
On 1 January the new UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau was established to transform the previous mission into an integrated mission to harmonise the work of all UN agencies, funds and programmes operating in the country under one central body to achieve better efficiency and effectiveness.

On 5 November 2009 the then Representative of the Secretary-General to Guinea-Bissau and Head of the previous UN Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea-Bissau briefed the Council. He highlighted the weakness of the justice system which had eroded confidence of the citizenry, especially against the backdrop of unresolved politically motivated violence. Mutaboba said that the opportunity for change required commitment and results on the part of the government and adequate international support to address the country’s short-term challenges and the long-term goals, including strengthening state institutions.

The Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Antonio Maria Costa, also briefed the Council on the problem of drug trafficking. He noted that over the preceding 18 months, drug seizures had dropped significantly in the region. But that trend had to be interpreted cautiously, he added, especially since demand for cocaine persisted.

The Council adopted a presidential statement reiterating the importance of consolidating democracy, security, the rule of law and national reconciliation to ensure sustainable peace in Guinea-Bissau.

On 28 December 2009 former navy Rear Admiral José Américo Bubo Na Tchuto, who had been in exile in Gambia since a failed coup attempt in August 2008 against Guinea-Bissau President Joao Bernardo Vieira, entered UN premises in Bissau and sought asylum. The UN facilitated talks with the government leading to his Tchuto’s voluntary surrender on 8 January, under guarantee of his legal rights.

Developments in the Peacebuilding Commission

On 8 February the chair of the PBC Guinea-Bissau configuration, Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti of Brazil, briefed on the visit to Guinea-Bissau from 16 to 21 January to assess implementation of the Strategic Framework for Peacebuilding.

The PBC adopted itsconclusions and recommendationson the first review of the Strategic Framework for Peacebuilding in Guinea-Bissau, which acknowledged that progress was being made and established a focus for peacebuilding priorities for the near future.

Human Rights-Related Developments

The Universal Periodic Review of Guinea-Bissau by the Human Rights Council is scheduled for 7 May. Amnesty International has lodged a submission that Guinea-Bissau should ratify the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, its two Optional Protocols, and the Convention against Torture.

Key Issues
The key issue for the Council is whether the recent positive trends are consolidating into a sustainable peace. A related issue in the minds of many Council members will be whether, since transitioning from UNOGBIS, the mission is indeed playing a real role in harmonising the work of all UN presence in the country and resulting in greater efficiency and effectiveness.

A second issue is whether there are areas where ongoing Council attention is needed to sustain progress in peace consolidation.

Underlying Problems
Many of the serious socioeconomic challenges that have been factors in the instability in the country remain. These include widespread poverty, youth unemployment, weak justice institutions and inadequate resources to effectively combat drug trafficking and organised crime, which are beginning to affect most of the West African subregion. Also, while a degree of normalcy has been achieved in the country since the political assassinations in 2009, political tensions and divisions are still close to the surface.

Options
One main option the Council may consider is whether to signal ongoing active interest in developments in the country (and if so, whether to issue a formal statement) or whether to begin the process of shifting to a less active mode. (The second report of UNIOGBIS is due in June.)

Council Dynamics
It remains to be seen how the presence of Brazil and Nigeria, which joined the Council in January, will affect the Council’s approach. Both countries seem to be strongly interested in consolidating peace in Guinea-Bissau through peacebuilding as well as continuing to show an active and supportive interest in the Security Council. This could lead to more sustained attention to the country. Brazil is the lead on this issue in the Council and has historically played a leading role as a member of the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries and also the chair of the PBC country-specific configuration for Guinea-Bissau. Nigeria is a major player in the West African subregion.

UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions
  • S/RES/1876 (26 June 2009) renewed the mandate of UNOGBIS until 31 December 2009 and requested the Secretary-General to establish UNIOGBIS beginning on 1 January 2010 for an initial period of 12 months.
  • S/RES/1233 (6 April 1999) supported the Secretary-General’s decision to establish UNOGBIS.

Selected Presidential Statements
  • S/PRST/2009/29 (5 November 2009) welcomed the planning for the transition of the UN Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS) to an Integrated Peacebuilding Office (UNIOGBIS).
  • S/PRST/2009/6 (9 April 2009) welcomed the convening of the presidential election for 28 June 2009 and urged credible polls.
  • S/PRST/2009/2 (3 March 2009) condemned the assassination of President Vieira and the chief of the armed forces of Guinea-Bissau, and urged continued adherence to stability, constitutional order, the rule of law and the democratic process.
  • S/PRST/2007/38 (24 October 2007) called on the Guinean-Bissau government and the UN system to take further action on drug trafficking and organised crime.

Selected Letters
  • S/2009/56 (30 January 2009) and S/2009/55 (27 January 2009) was the exchange of letters between the Secretary-General and the president of the Council on the appointment of Joseph Mutaboba as the Secretary-General’s Representative in Guinea-Bissau and head of UNOGBIS.
  • S/2008/778 (22 December 2008) and S/2008/777 (10 December 2008) was the exchange of letters between the Secretary-General and the president of the Council that revised and extended the UNOGBIS mandate to 30 June 2009 and requested recommendations on establishment of an integrated UN Office in Guinea-Bissau by 15 June 2009.
  • S/2008/208 (25 March 2008) was a letter from the chairperson of the PBC to the president of the Security Council providing advice on the peacebuilding priorities for Guinea-Bissau.
  • S/1999/232 (3 March 1999) welcomed the Secretary-General’s proposal to establish UNOGBIS.

Selected Report on UNOGBIS

PBC Documents

  • PBC/4/GNB/1 (16 December 2009) was the progress report on the implementation of the Peacebuilding Strategic Framework for Guinea-Bissau.
  • PBC/3/GNB/5 (4 March 2009) was the statement by the chair of the PBC’s configuration on Guinea-Bissau concerning the assassination of President João Bernardo Vieira and army chief Tagme Na Waie.

Other
  • S/PV.6212 (5 November 2009) was the briefing by the Representative of the Secretary-General and the head of UNOGBIS.
  • S/2008/87 (28 December 2007) was the letter from the chair of the PBC informing the president of the Council about the placement of Guinea-Bissau on the PBC’s agenda.

Other Relevant Facts

Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNIOGBIS

Joseph Mutaboba (Rwanda)

Duration

1 January 2010 to present; mandate expires on 31 December 2010.

Full forecast

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