November 2009 Monthly Forecast

Posted 2 November 2009
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues in the Council during October included:

Women, Peace and Security: On 5 October the Council held an open debate on implementation of resolution 1325 and adopted resolution 1889 (S/PV.6196). The resolution focuses on women’s participation and urges member states, UN bodies, donors and civil society to ensure that women’s protection and empowerment is taken into account during post-conflict needs assessment and planning. The adoption of resolution 1889 followed that of resolution 1888 of 30 September which strengthens efforts to end sexual violence against women and children in armed conflict.

Afghanistan: On 8 October the Council reauthorised ISAF to 13 October 2010 in resolution 1890. On 29 October the Secretary-General briefed the Council on the situation in Afghanistan in closed consultations. He said that he would ask member states to expedite measures to strengthen security in response to the escalated threat against the UN following the deadly attacks on 28 October in Kabul. The Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2009/28) expressing support for the measures already taken by the Secretary-General to ensure UN staff security. The Secretary-General is expected to present further detailed proposals to the Council. The presidential statement also expressed support for the run-off elections which it said should be carried out as scheduled with continued support of the UN (at press time it seemed the run-off elections would be cancelled after the withdrawal of Abdullah Abdullah). The previous day the Council had issued a press statement (SC/9778) condemning in the strongest terms the terrorist attack at a guesthouse in Kabul which killed and injured UN staff members and members of the Afghan Security Forces.

Haiti: TheCouncil, in remarks to the press, expressed its condolence regarding the 9 October plane crash in Haiti which killed all eleven on board, including UN peacekeepers. On 13 October, the Council extended the mandate of the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti through 15 October 2010 in resolution 1892 (S/PV.6200). The force configuration of the mission was adjusted as suggested by the Secretary-General in order to better meet current requirements.

Côte d’Ivoire: On 13 October the Council was briefed by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Côte d’Ivoire, Choi Young-jin, on the Secretary-General’s midterm report (S/2009/495), as part of the Council’s review of the situation in the country. On 28 October the Council adopted resolution 1893 extending both the Côte d’Ivoire sanctions regime and the mandate of the Group of Experts until 31 October 2010.

Middle East: The Security Council held an open debate on the Middle East on 14 October (S/PV.6201). The debate was originally scheduled for 20 October but was moved forward after closed consultations on 7 October (Libya had requested a meeting of the Council to discuss the report of the UN Fact-Finding Mission on the Gaza Conflict, or the Goldstone Report (S/2009/510)). During the debate most Council members said it would be premature to consider the report while it was in the hands of the Human Rights Council, which adopted a resolution two days later endorsing the recommendations of the Goldstone Report (A/HRC/S-12/L.1). It is now expected that the Goldstone Report will be considered by the General Assembly on 4 November.

Security Council Elections: On 15 October Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Gabon, Lebanon and Nigeria were elected to the Security Council by the General Assembly. These five non-permanent members will start their two year term on 1 January 2010, replacing Burkina-Faso, Costa Rica, Croatia, Libya and Viet Nam.

Kosovo: On 15October the Council held a debate on Kosovo (S.PV.6202). The Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNMIK, Lamberto Zannier, gave a briefing on the Secretary-General’s latest UNMIK report (S/2009/497). In addition to Council members, the Foreign Minister of Serbia, Vuk Jeremić, and the Foreign Minister of Kosovo, Skënder Hyseni, spoke in the debate.

Terrorism: On 20 October, in remarks to the press, the Security Council condemned the 18 October terrorist attacks in Iran which killed 57 people and injured 150 others.

Chad/CAR: On 22 October Edmond Mulet, the UN Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, briefed the Council in an open debate (S/PV.6204) on the Secretary-General’s latest MINURCAT report (S/2009/535).

Timor-Leste: On 23 October the Council held a debate (S/PV.6205) during which it was briefed by Atul Khare, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Timor-Leste on the latest UNMIT report (S/2009/504) and by Jose Luis Guterres, Deputy Prime Minister of Timor-Leste. Khare stressed the need for a stable and steady approach to Timor-Leste and that there should be no exit without a strategy. Most Council members agreed with the Secretary-General’s recommendation that present strength and composition of UNMIT be maintained and that the technical assessment mission expected to take place in January 2010 would be important in evaluating possible adjustments in UNMIT’s mandate and strength in the future.

Support for AU Peacekeeping: The Council held a debate (S/PV.6206) on 26 October on the report of the AU-UN panel which covered modalities for support to AU peacekeeping operations. The report was presented by the Under Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations. Besides members of the Council, Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, Sweden (for the EU) and Tunisia also spoke. The Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2009/26) reiterating the importance of a more effective strategic relationship between the UN and the AU, underlining the importance of expediting the implementation of the UN-AU Ten-Year Capacity-Building Programme. It noted the assessment of the options for financing AU peacekeeping operations and expressed its intention to keep all options under consideration. It also underlined the need for a UN-AU study of lessons learnt from AMIS and AMISOM as well as collaboration under UNAMID and the UN Support Office for AMISOM. The Secretary-General was requested to update the Council by 26 April 2010 and submit a progress report by 26 October 2010.

Peace Consolidation in West Africa (Guinea): On 28 October the Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2009/27) expressing concern about the situation in Guinea. It welcomed the Economic Community of West African States’ statement supporting the Secretary-General’s decision to establish an international commission of inquiry to investigate the events of 28 September in that country and requested the Secretary-General to update it as appropriate on related developments.

International Court of Justice: On 29 Octoberthe president of ICJ, Hisashi Owada of Japan, briefed the Council in a closed meeting. It was his first appearance before the Council since succeeding Rosalyn Higgins of the UK as president on 6 February. Owada’s briefing coincided with his presentation to the General Assembly of the Court’s annual report (A/64/4).
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