July 2009 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 June 2009
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Overview

Uganda will have the Council presidency in July.

A thematic open debate on post-conflict peacebuilding, currently scheduled for 22 July, is expected to be chaired by Uganda’s Foreign Minister Sam Kutesa and is likely to have several other ministerial-level participants. This debate follows up a 2008 debate on this subject and a report from the Secretary-General is expected. (SCR will publish an Update Report close to the time of the debate.)

Due to growing concerns about the situation in Somalia, a debate is likely.

An open debate on the occasion of the monthly Middle East briefing is expected on 27 July.

At press time it was unclear whether an open debate on sexual violence in conflict will be held in July or at a later time.

Three mandates expire in July:

  • UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) expires on 23 July and at press time the Nepal government had not yet formally asked for an extension although there are indications that it is likely to do so. The Council will hold consultations and, if the mission is to be extended, a formal session.
  • UN-AU Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) expires on 31 July and the Council is expected to renew it by resolution. It will likely be briefed on the latest Secretary-General’s reports and will hold a formal session to adopt a resolution.
  • The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) which expires on 31 July. A briefing on recent developments and a formal session are expected.

A briefing by Joaquim Chissano, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for LRA-Affected Areas, whose mandate was suspended as of 30 June due to a standstill in the peace process, is expected mid-month.

Several other briefings are also likely on the Secretary-General’s reports on the:

A briefing is also likely on the annual report of the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict, by the Group’s current (Mexico) and past (France) chairs.

On Children and Armed Conflict, the Council is also expected, by the end of July, to take up the issue of expanding the criteria for including parties to armed conflict in the annexes to the Secretary-General’s report on children and armed conflict, as requested in the 29 April presidential statement.

The Council may hold consultations on the situation between Djibouti and Eritrea, following up on its June 2008 presidential statement and resolution 1862 of last January that aimed at restoring normalcy in the border area.

The Council is also likely to hold consultations on:

  • the report of the Secretary-General on the implementation of resolution 1701 (which in 2006 put an end to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon);
  • the occasion of a briefing by the chair of the Somalia Sanctions Committee; and
  • the report of the DPRK Sanctions Committee on the adjustment of the measures through the designation of additional entities, goods, and individuals, as required by resolution 1874.

The Council is also likely to receive in July the Secretary-General’s report, initially expected in June, on Iraqmandate review and discuss it (see our June Forecast for details).

Uganda will be drafting the Council’s annual report to the General Assembly covering 1 August 2008 through 31 July 2009 and the Council may begin its first discussions of the text in July.

Full forecast

 

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