April 2009 Monthly Forecast

THEMATIC ISSUES

Children and Armed Conflict

Expected Council Action 

The Council will discuss children and armed conflict in an open debate on 29 April. The foreign minister of Mexico, Patricia Espinoza, is expected to preside.

Members will focus on the Secretary-General’s progress report on the implementation of resolution 1612, which in 2005 established the monitoring and reporting mechanism and set up the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict.

A presidential statement is a likely outcome of the debate with possibly a commitment to start work on a new resolution for later in the year.

Security Council Report will publish its second Cross-Cutting Report on Children and Armed Conflict in April in preparation for the debate.

Key Recent Developments
The Secretary-General’s report is expected to be circulated in mid April with the latest list of parties that recruit or use children in armed conflict in the two annexes. Annex I is made up of situations on the Council’s formal agenda and Annex II are those situations that are not on the Council’s agenda. Possible recommendations include the following.

Resolution 1612, adopted in July 2005, established a monitoring and reporting mechanism to collect, organise and verify information on violations against children in armed conflict and on progress made by parties in the Secretary-General’s annexes in complying with international norms on children and armed conflict. The monitoring and reporting mechanism has now been established in all conflicts listed in Annex I: Afghanistan, Burundi, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Myanmar, Nepal, Somalia, and southern Sudan and Darfur (considered together); and the five Annex II situations (those not on the Council’s agenda): Chad, Colombia, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Uganda.

The Working Group also set up by resolution 1612 has, since its establishment in November 2005, considered 24 reports and adopted 21 conclusions. However, there is an increasing time lag between considering reports and issuing conclusions.

The trial of Thomas Lubanga, leader of the Union of Congolese Patriots (Union des patriots congolais, or UPC) from DRC and the first individual to be charged solely for the conscription and use of children under the age of 15, began on 26 January. This trial is seen by many observers as significant in demonstrating that the use of children in armed conflict is a war crime that can be prosecuted at the international level.

On 17 July 2008, the Council held an open debate initiated by Vietnam. The presidential statement following the debate reiterated the need for a stronger focus on the long-term effects of armed conflict on children and encouraged the Working Group to further improve transparency and efficiency. Unlike the previous presidential statement of February 2008, there was no reference to persistent violators, the need for time-bound action plans or reviewing provisions of its resolutions.

In January Mexico became the new chair of the Working Group when France, which had been instrumental in setting up the Working Group, stepped down after three years.

Options
The most likely option in April is a presidential statement reaffirming the Council’s commitment to addressing the impact of armed conflict on children and to implementing 1612. Possible elements include:committing to working on a new resolution;

Other possible elements may be:

The adoption of a resolution is less likely in April but in the event that a decision is taken to work on a range of new measures for adoption late in 2009, the following are possible options.

Options for the Council include:

Options for the Working Group and the reporting by the Secretary-General include the following.

Options regarding Annex II situations follow.

Key Issues
A key issue is whether the Council should more actively reinforce the efforts of the Working Group in country-specific situations. In Nepal, for example, the issue of former Maoist combatants recruited as minors, and still remaining in the cantonments, is key for the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN). This is also an issue that concerns the Working Group. By using information obtained from the Secretary-General’s report on children and armed conflict in Nepal, the Council may be able to address this issue more forcibly when considering the report of the Secretary-General on UNMIN.

Another issue is the impact of the Working Group chair rather than the Council president carrying out recommendations involving communication with non-state actors, and sometimes with governments. This has been an increasing trend.

A significant issue for the Working Group is how to ensure that parties recruiting children continue to respond to its requests.

Related is how to get agreement on using stronger action against persistent violators. (The Secretary-General’s 2007 report highlighted 16 groups that have been on the Secretary-General’s annexes for four consecutive reports.) With some members opposing targeted sanctions, an alternative form of pressure may be needed.

Also an issue is how to respond to fast changing situations. The November 2008 DRC report discussed in January 2009 was outdated given the escalation of violence in eastern DRC at the end of 2008.

A connected question is whether better communications can be developed between the Working Group and sanctions committees in country situations in Annex I such as the Sudan, DRC and Somalia.

Another issue is ensuring that a new resolution enhances resolution 1612 and does not hamper the functioning of either the monitoring and reporting mechanism or the Working Group.

Further issues include getting more groups to agree and implement action plans (formal action plans have only been signed with the four parties in Côte d’Ivoire, the Uganda People’s Defence Forces, and the TMVP/Karuna faction in Sri Lanka) and keeping track of documents over the years and maintaining an institutional memory now that the chair is likely to rotate every two years.

A future issue, if there is agreement to start negotiating a resolution, is finding consensus on how to expand the trigger for including parties in the Secretary-General’s annexes.

Council Dynamics
Many feel 2008 was a difficult year for the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict. A lack of consensus over conclusions on Myanmar and divisions on the Working Group’s working methods slowed consideration of reports and adopting conclusions in the first half of the year. However, by the end of the year it had appeared to be back on track, issuing four conclusions in December 2008.

The current composition of the Council, with several new members keen on thematic issues, suggests a productive dynamic in the Working Group this year. However, some old divisions may still produce delays. In the last two months disagreement between the US and Russia over language on killing and maiming of children in Afghanistan has delayed issuing conclusions on that country. The decision to proceed with a resolution is likely to see past differences resurface. For example, in considering an expansion of the trigger for placement on the Secretary-General’s annexes, some members may be comfortable with new criteria such as sexual violence. But others like Russia and China seem unwilling to have the sexual violence criteria without also adding killing and maiming.

Lack of consensus over the kinds of stronger action that might be employed against persistent violators is also likely to prove divisive given opposition to using targeted sanctions among some members, particularly China. But also it may provoke some innovative thinking.

Among the new members, Mexico as chair is likely to play a key role in shaping the issue over the next two years. Uganda will be the first Council member to have an armed group which originated in its territory being considered and its input will be very important when the Working Group next discusses the LRA. France, now that it is no longer chair, may be able to more easily deploy its extensive knowledge in helping to negotiate a new resolution.

UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolution

  • S/RES/1612 (26 July 2005) requested the Secretary-General implement a monitoring and reporting mechanism and set up a working group on children and armed conflict.

Selected Presidential Statements

  • S/PRST/2008/28 (17 July 2008) reiterated the need for stronger focus by all parties concerned on the long-term effects of armed conflict on children.
  • S/PRST/2008/6 (12 February 2008) reaffirmed the Council’s commitment to address the impact of armed conflict on children and expressed its readiness to review past resolutions and build on the resolution of 1612.

Selected Reports

  • S/2009/84 (10 February 2009) was the report of the Secretary-General on children and armed conflict in the Sudan.
  • S/2009/66 (3 February 2009) was the report of the Secretary-General on children and armed conflict in the Central African Republic.
  • S/2008/782 (12 December 2008) was the report of the Security Council mission to Afghanistan from 21 to 28 November 2008.
  • S/2008/693 (10 November 2008) was the report of the Secretary-General on children and armed conflict in the DRC.
  • S/2008/695 (10 November 2008) was the report of the Secretary-General on children and armed conflict in Afghanistan.
  • S/2008/532 (7 August 2008) was the report of the Secretary-General on children and armed conflict in Chad.

Security Council Debate Records

Conclusions of the Security Council Working Group

Selected Letter

  • S/2008/455 (11 July 2008) was the letter on the Working Group’s activities from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2008.

Other

  • S/2006/275 (2 May 2006) set out the terms of reference for the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict.
  • A/63/227 (6 August 2008) was the latest report by the Special Representative to the Secretary-General on Children and Armed Conflict.

Full forecast

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