June 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 May 2008
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AFRICA

Liberia

Expected Council Action
The Liberia Sanctions Committee is expected to receive the report of its Panel of Experts by 1 June, to assist in deliberations on the sanctions regime (arms embargo, assets freeze and travel embargo) imposed between 2003 and 2007 by resolutions 1521, 1731 and 1792. The Panel’s mandate expires on 20 June and a resolution authorising extension is likely. The current sanctions regime expires on 19 December.

Recent Developments
On 14 April, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Liberia, Ellen Margrethe Løj, briefed the Council in an open meeting on recent developments in the country. She noted that while Liberia “was in a place of hope” due to the absence of conflict over the past four years, security still remained fragile and highly dependent on the presence of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL). She gave an update on UNMIL’s drawdown process in accordance with resolution 1777 (adopted on 20 September 2007), and described the process as being designed to minimise threats to security. She listed security sector reform, effective implementation of the country’s new poverty reduction strategy, and addressing the high unemployment rate as crucial areas requiring special attention.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon visited Liberia from 21 to 22 April. During the trip, he pledged the UN’s continued support for the post-conflict recovery efforts of the country. Ban indicated that his recommendations to the Council on the drawdown of UNMIL would be related to the Liberian government’s ability to take complete control of its national security. He also highlighted reform of the legal and judicial system, among others, as crucial areas needing action.

On 14 May at The Hague, the Special Court of Sierra Leone trying former Liberian President Charles Taylor began hearing the testimony of its most prominent witness to date, former Liberian Vice-President Moses Blah. Blah was Taylor’s vice-president and briefly president after Taylor was forced into exile in 2003 and before a UN-backed transitional government was sworn in later that year. Taylor is accused of backing rebels who committed atrocities in neighbouring Sierra Leone and has been charged with 11 counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes.

On 27 March, the Liberia Sanctions Committee granted a request to remove the name of Gerald Cooper from the list of individuals subject to its travel ban. This marks the second “delisting” exercise undertaken by the Committee. (The first took place in November 2007 when Grace Minor, a former advisor to Taylor, was removed from the assets freeze and travel ban list.)

Key Issues
The key issue for the Liberia Sanctions Committee is effective implementation of the sanctions regime. A related issue is concern about the pace of progress in regaining state control over Liberia’s natural resources. Resolution 1792, adopted on 19 December 2007, requested the Panel’s assessment of the Liberian government’s implementation of the Forestry Reform Law and the government’s compliance with the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme for diamonds. In addition, the Secretary-General’s latest report on the country indicated that while the Liberian government had made commendable efforts to regain control of diamond mining, additional measures were needed to effectively regulate the industry.

Another issue is consideration of requests for delisting of individuals from the Liberia sanctions list.

Options
The most likely option for the Council is to renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts and possibly to highlight pertinent issues raised in the Panel’s report in the Council resolution.

Council Dynamics
Council members appear to support renewing the Panel’s mandate, but are awaiting its report to shape their final decision. An emerging dynamic is the preparedness of the Sanctions Committee to favourably consider delisting some individuals affected by sanctions. This seems mostly attributable to the sustained (albeit fragile) stability in the country and the Council’s need to create incentives for Liberia’s continued adherence to both national and international efforts to consolidate the peace. At press time, there were reports that some key Council members were preparing lists of individuals to be considered by the Sanctions Committee for possible delisting.

The US and the African members of the Council are the lead countries on Liberia.

Underlying Problems
Slow progress in restoring and consolidating state authority throughout the country has hampered effective implementation of the sanctions. Similarly, high numbers of unemployed youth, including former combatants, as well as dire socio-economic needs and lack of basic infrastructure, continue to pose latent threats to stability in the country.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1793 (21 December 2007) granted exemption from the Council’s travel ban for witnesses who might need to appear before the Special Court for Sierra Leone in the trial of former Liberian President Charles Taylor.
  • S/RES/1792 (19 December 2007) renewed the arms and travel sanctions and as well as the mandate of the Panel of Experts.
  • S/RES/1777 (20 September 2007) renewed the mandate of UNMIL for a one year and endorsed the Secretary-General’s recommendations for the mission’s drawdown.
  • S/RES/1753 (27 April 2007) lifted the diamonds embargo and decided to review this decision after receiving reports from the Panel of Experts and the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme.
  • S/RES/1731 (20 December 2006) renewed sanctions.
  • S/RES/1532 (12 March 2004) imposed an assets freeze against former President Charles Taylor and associates.
  • S/RES/1521 (22 December 2003) imposed sanctions.
  • S/RES/1509 (19 September 2003) established UNMIL.

Selected Secretary-General’s Reports

  • S/2008/183 (19 March 2008) was the latest UNMIL report.
  • S/2007/143 (13 March 2007) was a report on cross-border issues in West Africa.

Other

  • SC/9290 (31 March 2008) was the press release on the delisting of Gerald Cooper from the Liberia Sanctions Committee travel ban list.
  • S/2008/85 (8 February 2008) was the letter from the Secretary-General appointing the Panel of Experts on Liberia.
  • S/2007/689 (5 December 2007) was the latest report of the Panel of Experts.
  • SC/9183 (29 November 2007) was the press release on the delisting of Grace Beatrice Minor from the Liberia Sanctions Committee assets freeze and travel ban list.
  • S/2007/547 (14 September 2007) was the letter from the chairman of the Liberia Sanctions Committee conveying the two letters constituting the report of the KPCS to the Council.

Other Relevant Facts

Special Representative of the Secretary-General

Ellen Margrethe Løj (Denmark)

UNMIL: Size, Composition and Cost

• Strength as of 30 April 2008: 12,235 military and 1,147 police
• Key contributing countries: Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Pakistan
• Cost: 1 July 2007–30 June 2008: $688.38 million

UNMIL: Duration

September 2003 to present; mandate expires 30 September 2008

Chairman of the Liberia Sanctions Committee

Giadalla Azuz Ettalhi (Libya)

Panel of Experts on Liberia

  • Guy Lamb (South Africa, expert on arms and security)
  • Thomas R. Creal (US, expert on finance)
  • Wynet V. Smith (Canada, expert on natural resources and coordinator of the Panel)

Full forecast

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