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Iraq/Multi-National Force

Expected Council Action
The Council is expected to review in June the mandates of the Multi-National Force in Iraq (MNF-I), the Development Fund for Iraq (DFI) and the International Advisory and Monitoring Board (IAMB, the audit oversight body for the DFI).

At press time, it was unclear whether the next MNF-I briefing to the Council and the next Secretary-General’s report on the UN Mission in Iraq (UNAMI), currently scheduled for July, would also be considered in June.

The Council is likely to be briefed by the US on the activities of the MNF-I. Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari is also expected to brief on current developments. The Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Iraq Staffan de Mistura may also brief the Council. A debate is likely to follow. A statement (perhaps a press statement) is a possible outcome.

The mandate of UNAMI expires on 10 August and the mandate of MNF-I on 31 December.

Key Recent Developments
In May, US and Iraqi forces intensified military pressure against Shi’a insurgents of the Mahdi Army in Baghdad’s Sadr City—seemingly a continuation of the campaign in April in Basra to establish government authority over Shi’a extremist controlled areas. Violence also spread to other Shi’a neighbourhoods of Baghdad. A truce reached on 12 May did not hold and fighting has continued.

The most recent previous US briefing on the MNF-I activities in Iraq was on 28 April. US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad said then that the overall security environment in Iraq continued to improve with gains on the political, economic and diplomatic fronts as well. He emphasised that the number of civilian deaths due to violence had fallen by more than 72 percent since last July, while coalition deaths had dropped by more than 70 percent since last summer. He also mentioned a trend in the decrease of number of deaths due to ethno-sectarian violence.

On the same day, Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe (who visited Iraq in April) briefed the Council on progress in fulfilling UNAMI’s mandate and also on the latest Secretary-General’s report on UNAMI, published on 22 April. Pascoe said that, despite improvements in security, the Iraqi government continued to face formidable challenges to national reconciliation. In particular, the sharing of natural resources and the federal structure of the state remain divisive issues. The adoption of legislation and constitutional revisions were necessary to resolve those differences, he said. UNAMI continued to expand assistance to the Iraqi government and people, especially in territorial disputes and elections. Finally, he said that UNAMI was working toward becoming self-sufficient for logistical support and security.

On 21-22 April, the third expanded ministerial conference of Iraq and its neighbours took place in Kuwait. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Kamal al-Maliki made an urgent appeal for greater international support to Iraq, voiced frustration that fellow Arab states had failed to send ambassadors to Iraq or relieve Iraq’s debt. (Apparently Iraq still owes about $67 billion to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.) In a final communiqué, the participants reaffirmed their support to the Iraqi government in broadening the political process, confronting threats posed by armed groups, combating terrorism and preventing illegal arms transfers to and from Iraq.

Under Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes said on 4 April that the humanitarian situation continued to deteriorate and that humanitarian workers’ access to Iraq was hindered by ongoing hostilities and restrictions on freedom of movement. He added that the February UN relief appeal of $265 million had yet to be fully funded by donors.

On 25 March, heavy fighting broke out in Basra between the Shi’a Mahdi army and the Iraqi forces, supported by British and American air strikes. The Iraqi government sent troops to Basra in an attempt to force the militia into submission. Militia resistance initially appeared stronger than expected. However, it seems that eventually government forces gained the upper hand and fighting ended after Shi’a cleric Moktada al-Sadr called for a ceasefire. The crisis led the US and the UK to postpone various MNF-I troop withdrawals and contributed to a sharp rise in the Iraqi violent death toll in March compared with the previous month. However, it seems that the net effect may be an overall improvement in the security situation in Basra. How sustainable it will prove to be is yet to be established.

Key Issues
Council members are unlikely to raise issues about the future of the MNF-I mandate at this stage. However, a major issue looming for the future is whether the MNF-I mandate will be extended after its expiration in December. While the Iraqi government has indicated that it would not seek a further extension, much depends on progress in negotiations between the Iraqi government and the US on a Status of Forces Agreement to maintain a US military presence in Iraq to replace the UN-mandated MNF-I. This is of significance for the Council, although a decision is not required in June. It remains to be seen whether the US will provide an update on the status of the negotiations.

Another looming issue is the future of the DFI and IAMB. In December, Russia, supported by South Africa, expressed concern at the “opaque structure” of the Fund and the IAMB, and sought clarifications on irregularities with regard to the disbursement of funds from the DFI. To meet Russia’s concern, the US is currently considering a meeting between the IAMB and all Council members in Washington. (The IAMB is headed by representatives of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.)

Several other issues are likely to arise:

• Elections: A major issue for UNAMI is assistance to the Iraqi electoral commission to prepare for possible elections later this year. This involves several difficulties, including the need to obtain political agreement on voter eligibility, in particular for internally displaced persons (IDPs), and the enacting of electoral legislation in May if governorate elections are to occur in October.
• Refugees and IDPs: The situation has not improved. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that some 4.4 million Iraqis are still uprooted, including 2.4 million displaced inside Iraq. These figures appear to still be increasing but more slowly than in the previous year. It remains to be seen whether Council members will raise this issue again in June.
• Detainees: The latest UNAMI human rights report says the number of detainees held in MNF-I custody continued to increase and reached 24,661 in December, while the number of detainees in Iraqi government custody was 26,472 (including more than 1,500 children). Human rights organisations have raised concerns about the situation of detainees, the lack of access by UNAMI and human rights observers to MNF-I detention facilities, and alleged widespread torture in Iraqi prisons. Several organisations have asked the Council to insist that MNF-I respect international humanitarian law, to implement recommendations relating to detentions and the judicial system in the latest UNAMI human rights report, and to strengthen the UNAMI human rights reporting process. While a number of delegations raised concerns about this situation in April, it remains to be seen whether this will be addressed again in June.
• The first Iraq Compact annual review conference was held in Stockholm on 29 May at foreign ministers’ level, and chaired by the Secretary-General and the Iraqi prime minister. Council members may be interested in an assessment of the conference.

Council Dynamics
During the last briefing, a number of delegations—in particular Russia, Vietnam, Libya, China and South Africa—expressed concern at the humanitarian situation especially for Iraqi detainees. There were also proposals for UNAMI to undertake further action on the humanitarian and human rights fronts. Many expressed concerns at the situation as described in the UNAMI human rights report, in particular regarding refugees and IDPs. Libya, Indonesia, France, South Africa and Russia argued that there had been an upsurge in violent incidents—seemingly at odds with the downwards trend claimed by the US. Russia even said that the Secretary-General’s UNAMI report was “an obvious attempt to tone down or side-step the more acute problems in present-day Iraq.”

Other Relevant Facts

Useful Additional Sources

• Iraq Compact Annual Review Conference
• Latest UNAMI human rights report
• “Iraq after the Surge I: The New Sunni Landscape” and “Iraq after the Surge II: The Need for a New Political Strategy”, International Crisis Group, Middle East Reports No 74 and 75, 30 April 2008
• “Letter to the Security Council on MNF Detention Practices in Iraq”, Human Rights Watch, 28 April 2008
• “Open Letter to Members of the Security Council Concerning Detentions in Iraq”, International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) and Global Policy Forum, 22 April 2008
• “Uprooted and Unstable: Meeting Urgent Humanitarian Needs in Iraq”, Refugees International, April 2008

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