June 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 May 2008
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UNDOF (Golan)

Expected Council Action
The mandate of the UN Disengagement Force in the Golan Heights (UNDOF) expires on 30 June, and a report by the Secretary-General is due in June.

UNDOF was established in May 1974 by resolution 350 after the October 1973 war. UNDOF is tasked with maintaining the ceasefire between Israel and Syria and supervising the areas of separation and limitation.

The Council is expected to follow its usual practice of extending the UNDOF mandate for another six months along with a call upon the parties to implement resolution 338 of 1973 (which called on the parties to start negotiations on a just and durable peace and to implement resolution 242 of 1967 on the withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied territories).

It is expected that there will be a presidential statement, as has been the practice since 1976, drawing attention to the wider issues in the region and noting that the Middle East will remain tense until a comprehensive settlement is reached.

Key Recent Developments
The situation in the Golan Heights remains calm and this is likely to be reflected in the Secretary-General’s report.

Although Syria was invited in November 2007 to the Annapolis peace conference on the Middle East, a clear Israeli-Syrian track parallel to the Israeli-Palestinian track was not apparent. However, on 21 May Israel and Syria confirmed rumours that they had been indirectly negotiating with Turkey’s mediation. The two sides said they would “conduct dialogue in a serious and continuous manner with the aim of reaching a comprehensive peace.” This announcement was welcomed by the Secretary-General. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said the process would be long, complex and could end in “difficult concessions.” Syria seeks the return of the Golan Heights. It seems that for Israel a major issue would be the severing of Syrian ties with Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. It remains to be seen whether the US will become involved—some analysts believe that US commitment will be necessary for the success of the talks.

The last known attempt at peace talks between Israel and Syria was in 1999-2000. The talks did not succeed. It appears that a principal disagreement was about water issues and the Sea of Galilee, which is Israel’s main source of fresh water.

Key Issues
Renewal of the UNDOF mandate is unlikely to become an issue. However, given the situation in the region, an underlying question on many members’ minds is likely to be whether there is any way to encourage the recently revealed talks to resolve the Golan Heights issue. The significance of this was addressed in our December 2007 Special Research Report entitled “Middle East 1947-2007: Sixty years of Security Council Engagement on the Israel/Palestine Question.”

A related but more technical question is the status of the Sheb’a Farms, currently occupied by Israel and under UNDOF’s area of operations, but now accepted by both Syria and Lebanon to be Lebanese territory. Final delimitation of this area between Syria and Lebanon would have the effect of placing the Sheb’a Farms outside UNDOF’s area of operations and instead under the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Resolution 1701, adopted on 11 August 2006, requested the Secretary-General to develop proposals, with relevant international actors and the concerned parties, for delineation of the Lebanese border in particular in the Sheb’a farms area. In his latest report on implementation of resolution 1701, the Secretary-General said that although the UN cartographer had provided a provisional definition of the Sheb’a Farms area, Syria had yet to respond to requests for documents. He also pointed out that there had been no progress in his consultations with the relevant parties (Lebanon, Syria and Israel).

Lebanon has suggested an interim solution in a proposal to place the Farms provisionally under “UN tutelage”. This was outlined in Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s August 2006 seven-point plan. Israel maintains that the issue of the Sheb’a Farms should be addressed between Lebanon and Syria. Syria maintains that final delimitation should be conditioned on prior Israeli withdrawal.

Council Dynamics
There is wide consensus in the Council that UNDOF remains useful in the absence of a peace agreement between Israel and Syria. At time of writing, there was no indication that renewal of the mandate would become controversial.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1788 (14 December 2007) renewed UNDOF until 31 June 2008.
  • S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) requested the Secretary-General to develop, in liaison with relevant international actors and the concerned parties, proposals for delineation of the Lebanese borders, especially in the Sheb’a Farms area.
  • S/RES/350 (31 May 1974) established UNDOF.
  • S/RES/338 (22 October 1973) called for a ceasefire and comprehensive peace.
  • S/RES/242 (22 November 1967) called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the occupied territories.

Latest Presidential Statements

  • S/PRST/2007/48 (14 December 2007) was the last statement following the renewal of UNDOF.

Latest Secretary-General’s Reports

  • S/2008/135 (28 February 2008) was the last report on implementation of resolution 1701.
  • S/2007/698 (3 December 2007) was the last report on UNDOF.

Latest Letters

  • S/2008/306 (6 May 2008) was a letter from the Secretary-General informing the Council that Slovakia will withdraw its contingent from UNDOF in July 2008, and that Croatia had agreed to replace it.
  • S/2008/161 (3 March 2008) was a letter from Syria complaining about Israel’s policy of uprooting trees in the Golan Heights in contravention of international humanitarian law, which prevents occupying forces from targeting civilian objects.

Other Relevant Facts

UNDOF Force Commander

Major-General Wolfgang Jilke (Austria)

Size and Composition of Mission (30 April 2008)

  • 1,088 troops, assisted by some 57 military observers of UN Truce Supervision Organisation’s Observer Group Golan
  • Troop contributors: Austria, Canada, India, Japan, Poland and Slovakia (Slovakia’s troops will withdraw in July 2008, to be replaced by a Croatian contingent)

Approved Budget

1 July 2007 – 30 June 2008: $39.67 million (A/C.5/62/23)

Full forecast

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