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EUROPE

Cyprus

Expected Council Action

The mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) expires on 15 June. A report from the Secretary-General is due by 1 June. The Council will be interested in his assessment of progress in the discussions that are preparing the ground for the resumption of full-fledged negotiations between the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot sides. At this stage, the Council is expected to renew UNFICYP’s mandate without any change. It is likely also to express full support for the renewed Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot initiative.

Key Recent Developments
The new Greek Cypriot leader President Demetris Christofias, who was elected on 24 February, and the Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat agreed on 21 March that full-fledged negotiations under the auspices of the Secretary-General would start after an initial period of preparatory work. Technical committees and working groups were established on 18 April. Progress achieved in those groups and committees is likely to determine when high-level negotiations are ready to start. Issues under discussion in this preparatory phase include:

• state structures and power-sharing;
• property rights;
• security guarantees (including the question of demilitarisation of the island);
• territorial issues;
• economic matters; and
• implementation of EU law on the reunified island.

A previous agreement between the parties, of 8 July 2006, had provided for the establishment of such groups and committees, but the parties had been unable to agree on actively commencing work.

The opening on 3 April of Nicosia’s Ledra Street crossing—the main crossing point between the north and the south on the ceasefire line—on 3 April after being closed for 44 years, was regarded as a positive confidence-building measure by the parties.

The Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe visited Cyprus from 31 March to 2 April, followed by visits to Greece and Turkey, to determine prospects for the Secretary-General’s good offices. He noted a “palpable sense of momentum.” Briefing the Security Council on 15 April, Pascoe expressed optimism about the upcoming negotiations although he stressed they would not be easy. He added that the Secretary-General would consider appointing a special advisor to facilitate negotiations if the working groups and technical committees were making progress. In a presidential statement adopted on 17 April, the Council:

• warmly welcomed the 21 March agreement;
• looked forward to the results of the preparatory process within the three-month timeline;
• welcomed the opening of the Ledra Street crossing as an indication of political will and looked forward to further such confidence-building measures;
• reaffirmed its commitment to the reunification of Cyprus based on a bicommunal, bizonal federation and political equality; and
• welcomed the prospect of the appointment, after the completion of the preparatory period and based on progress, of a special advisor.

The leaders met again on 23 May at the residence of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General Taye-Brook Zerihoun in Nicosia, to review the results achieved so far and to address difficulties within the working groups and technical committees. They reaffirmed their commitment to a federal government with a single international personality, as well as a Turkish Cypriot constituent state and a Greek Cypriot constituent state, of equal status. They decided to meet again in the second half of June to make a new assessment. In the meantime, they agreed to consider civilian and military confidence-building measures, including the opening of other crossing points.

The Council in resolution 1789 of 14 December reaffirmed that the status quo was unacceptable, and agreed to renew UNFICYP until 15 June.

Options
The timing of the mandate expiry means that the Council has to take up the Cyprus issue before the completion of the preparatory phase for the resumption of negotiations is complete. It is therefore unlikely that the Council will consider wider issues or options in June. A simple renewal of the UNFICYP mandate for six months is therefore expected. Some language in support of the current talks is also possible. It could do this by:

• welcoming progress being achieved by the parties;
• encouraging the parties to continue to show political will and looking forward to ongoing progress in the preparatory phase;
• noting the Secretary-General’s intention to appoint a special advisor after the completion of the preparatory period and based on progress; and
• looking forward to the implementation of additional confidence-building measures such as the opening of more crossing points along the Green Line separating the north and the south.

Key Issues
One issue that may arise is how to assess progress in the working groups and technical committees which are preparing the ground for negotiations, and the important related question of timing for the commencement of full negotiations. At time of writing, the working groups and technical committees had commenced a more intensive phase. However, it is anticipated that discussions within the working groups may become more difficult as they address more substantive issues.

The issue of timing for the resumption of negotiations is closely related to progress in these bodies. It seems that the Turkish Cypriots favour moving to the negotiating stage soon. The Greek Cypriots seem to stress more the importance of the preparatory phase and the need to allow sufficient time to achieve results. As a consequence, they are less concerned about the exact timing for commencing negotiations. The Council is unlikely to step into this issue at this stage. Nor is it likely to push for the appointment of a Special Advisor at this time. It is more likely to prefer to wait until the Secretary-General has been able to assess the preparatory process and believes the time is right. This is all the more so at this time because the three-month period that the parties initially established for restarting negotiations continues until 21 June. Because the mandate renewal is required by 15 June, the Council will not feel obliged to take up the timing issue at this stage.

Council Dynamics
There is a wide consensus on the desirability of the Council being positive about the current momentum in the peace process. It also seems that there is wide support for a simple renewal of UNFICYP.

However, there are traditional fault lines in the Council on Cyprus. Divisions may resurface down the track if the preparatory phase becomes bogged down. Negotiations on the April presidential statement showed that longstanding differences among the P5 have not disappeared. For instance, there were sensitivities at that time between P5 members as to whether the Council should pronounce on the timeline for the negotiations and the appointment of a special advisor.

It seems that elected members are very supportive of the current peace process and will want the Council’s approach to be balanced.

UN Documents

Other Relevant Facts

Useful Additional Sources

• Joint statement by Greek Cypriot Leader Demetris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot Leader Mehmet Ali Talat, 23 May 2008
• Statement of the two leaders read by Michael Møller, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Chief of Mission of UNFICYP, following the meeting on 21 March 2008
• Agreement among advisors to Cypriot Leaders on working groups and technical committees, 26 March 2008
• Cyprus: Reversing the Drift to Partition, International Crisis Group, Europe Report No. 190, 10 January 2008.

Full forecast

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