Status Update
Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments in the Council on other issues included:
Myanmar: On 2 May, the Security Council adopted a presidential statement that welcomed the commitment from the Myanmar government that the referendum process would be free and fair and underlined the need for the government to “establish the conditions and create an atmosphere conducive to an inclusive and credible process” (S/PRST/2008/13). The Myanmar ambassador responded with a letter characterising the presidential statement as “highly objectionable” (S/2008/289). On 7 May, after Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar, France asked the Council to consider using “responsibility to protect” as the basis for Council action to get aid into Myanmar. This proposal was met with considerable resistance. (Please see our 14 May Update for more details.)
Committees on Counter-Terrorism: On 6 May, the Council was briefed by the chairs of the three counter-terrorism committees established through resolution 1267 (Al-Qaida and Taliban), 1373 and 1540 (Weapons of Mass Destruction) (S/PV.5886). Ambassador Neven Jurica of Croatia, chair of the Counter-Terrorism Committee ( 1373), noted the cooperation between the three committees, primarily through their experts groups, and announced that the Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED) had recently established a new organisational plan. (Please see our March 2008 Forecast for analysis of the CTED and the current forecast for information about the Committees on Weapons of Mass Destruction and Al-Qaida and the Taliban.)
Security Sector Reform: On 12 May, the Security Council heard statements on this subject by the Secretary-General, Slovakian Minister for Foreign Affairs Ján Kubis, South African Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs Susan van der Merwe, and the Chairman of the Peacebuilding Commission, Ambassador Yukio Takasu of Japan (S/PV.5889). The Council then adopted a presidential statement recognising that “that the establishment of an effective, professional and accountable security sector is one of the necessary elements” for peace and development and that it should be a “nationally-owned” process “within a broad framework of the rule of law” (S/PRST/2008/14).
Somalia: On 15 May, the Council adopted resolution 1814, in which it inter alia supported the Secretary-General’s phased approach to Somali issues; requested him to establish security arrangements for the relocation of the UN Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) from Nairobi to a location in Somalia; and requested him to continue contingency planning for the deployment of a UN operation to succeed AMISOM. There are still divisions on the draft on piracy issues, with members disagreeing on a proposal for a request for a Secretary-General’s report on piracy elsewhere in the world. (For more details, please see our 2 May Update Report on Somalia.)
Timor-Leste: On 16 May, the Secretary-General forwarded to the Council a Secretariat assessment of Timorese police requirements and the UN Mission in Timor-Leste (UNMIT). The report noted that the Timorese police and judicial mechanisms continue to face significant challenges, including issues of capacity, integrity, resources and past political interference, with serious consequences over the administration of justice, control over public disorder and respect for human rights. Such difficulties, the report says, may create problems for handover of responsibilities from UNMIT to the Timorese police. The mission itself faces problems of deployment, capacity, conflicting training standards, resources and limited timeframe for its mandate. The report further notes that the current draft plan for security sector reform requires significant changes and that there is a lack of a coherent strategy and coordination of bilateral assistance. It makes a number of recommendations to the Council, the General Assembly, the Timorese government, the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations, UNMIT, UN agencies, police contributors, donors and civil society (S/2008/329). On 29 May, the Council held consultations on the report. At time of writing, it was unclear whether any formal outcome would be adopted.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: On 19 May, the High Representative for the Implementation of the Peace Agreement in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Miroslav Lajcak, briefed the Council on his latest report (S/2008/300). He said that although important progress had been made, the international community’s job there was not finished. He informed the Council that the Peace Implementation Council Steering Board had agreed on a set of five objectives and two conditions that needed to be met before the Office of the High Representative could close.
Post-Conflict Peacebuilding: On 20 May, upon the initiative of the UK, president of the Council for the month of May, the Council held a high-level open debate on Post-Conflict Peacebuilding with the Ministers for Foreign Affairs of Belgium, Croatia, Indonesia, Netherlands, Spain and the UK participating. In a presidential statement (S/PRST/2008/16), the Council recognised major challenges facing the international community in assisting states to recover from conflict and to build sustainable peace. The Council invited the Secretary-General to provide advice within 12 months to relevant UN organs on how to best support national efforts to attain durable peace more quickly and effectively.
Nepal: The Council heard a briefing by Ian Martin, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative to Nepal, in a closed meeting on 21 May. Among the future challenges he highlighted were the formation of the new government and the successful drafting of the constitution. In his latest report on Nepal, the Secretary-General said while he did not expect an extension of UNMIN’s mandate which expires on 23 July, the UN is ready to provide continuing support to the peace process (S/2008/313).
Burundi: On 22 May, the Council held an open meeting on the situation in Burundi. The Chair of the Peacebuilding Commission’s (PBC) Country-Specific configuration on Burundi, Ambassador Johan L. Løvald of Norway, briefed the Council about his latest visit to Burundi and highlighted a number of major peacebuilding challenges in the country requiring international attention. The representative of Burundi told the Council that the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2008/330) conveyed the impression that Burundi was relapsing into a new cycle of violence at a time when the international community had been hoping for a recovery. He however said that subsequent events since the issuance of the report, including the rebel Forces nationales de libération (Palipehutu-FNL) return to the negotiating table and the resumption of the Joint Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JVMM), had given cause for optimism. In a press statement (SC/9339), the Council expressed concerns about the clashes between government forces and the FNL in Burundi and called for an end to hostilities and full implementation of the 2006 comprehensive ceasefire agreement. It expressed satisfaction that an FNL delegation had returned to Bujumbura and that the JVMM had resumed its work, welcomed the continued engagement of the PBC and reiterated its support for the work of the UN Integrated Office in Burundi.
Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict: On 27 May, the Council held an open debate and heard a briefing by Under Secretary-General John Holmes on this issue. Holmes reiterated the recommendation that the Council establish an informal expert group to provide transparent, systematic and timely consultation on protection, especially in the context of the establishment or renewal of peacekeeping mandates (S/PV.5898 and Res. 1) The Council then adopted a presidential statement reiterating previous messages on protection of civilians and requesting a Secretary-General’s report by May 2009 (S/PRST/2008/18).
Middle East: On 28 May, Robert Serry, UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East peace process, briefed the Council. His comments included: the confirmation of indirect Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations; the continuation of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations; Egyptian-led efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza; new pledges of investment in the Palestinian economy, in addition to a Quartet announcement of a package of measures to stimulate development; and the election of a new president in Lebanon, unblocking an 18-month political impasse. However, the situation remains fragile, he said. Important gaps need to be overcome in the Israeli-Palestinian discussions. In the West Bank, further steps to ease movement and access are vital. Israel has also continued settlement activity and incursions in the West Bank, Palestinian institutions in East Jerusalem remain closed by Israeli order and construction of the barrier has continued. In Gaza, the political, security and humanitarian situation has deepened. Serry also said that the firing of indiscriminate rockets from Gaza to Israel, which killed Israeli civilians last month, is to be condemned (S/PV.5899). The briefing was followed by consultations but no Council decisions emerged.
