October 2007 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 September 2007
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs.  Interesting developments in the Council on other issues included: 

  • Algeria: A presidential statement on 7 September condemned the 6 September terrorist attack in Batna, Algeria which led to the deaths of over twenty people (S/PRST/2007/32).  
  • Liberia: On 9 September, Special Representative Alan Doss briefed the Council on the situation in Liberia and recommended a drawdown of the mission tied to the achievement of measurable security sector reform benchmarks.  On 20 September, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 1777 extending the mandate of UNMIL until 30 September 2008 and endorsing the recommendation of the Secretary-General to decrease the size of the military and police components.
  • Timor-Leste:  On 10 September, the Council considered the Secretary-General’s most recent UNMIT report which commended the political progress that had been achieved during recent elections but noted ongoing challenges related to the security sector, justice and accountability, and IDPs (S/2007/513). A presidential statement was adopted echoing the Secretary-General’s support of the political progress in the country while highlighting “the need for all parties to resolve any disputes through exclusively peaceful channels and within the framework of democratic institutions” (S/PRST/2007/33). 
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo: On 11 September, the Council was briefed by John Holmes, the Under Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, regarding the situation in the DRC.  Alarmed by reports of violence in North Kivu between the Armed Forces of the DRC and the forces of Laurent Nkunda-in addition to the activities of other armed elements in the region-the Council issued a press statement that urged all parties “to comply with international humanitarian law…, to facilitate access for humanitarian operators to the persons affected by the conflict…, [and] to respect the ceasefire and initiate a dialogue” (SC/9113).  In a 17 September letter to the Council the DRC stated that the unrest in North and South Kivu was attributable to the presence of regular armies, militias and armed groups, primarily from Rwanda, on its territory.  DRC noted its surprise that the Council had requested it to engage in dialogue with Nkunda, and expressed the view that he should be prosecuted for violations of international law (S/2007/543). 
  • International Criminal Tribunals for Yugoslavia and Rwanda: On 14 September the Council extended the terms of office of the prosecutors for the criminal tribunals for Yugoslavia and Rwanda.  In resolution 1775, the Council extended the term of Carla Del Ponte (ICTY) until 31 December 2007. Russia abstained.  In resolution 1774, the Council unanimously extended the term of Mr. Hassan Bubacar Jallow (ICTR) for four years or until the completion of the Tribunal’s work. 
  • Lebanon: On 19 September the Council was briefed by Nicolas Michel, Under Secretary-General for Legal Affairs, on the most recent Secretary-General’s report on the establishment of a special tribunal for Lebanon (S/2007/525). The Council issued a press statement encouraging the Secretary-General to continue efforts to create the tribunal (SC/9119). At the request of the Lebanese government (S/2007/556), the Council invited UNIIIC to provide technical assistance to investigate the terrorist attack which killed parliamentarian Antoine Ghanem and several others (S/2007/557). This attack was condemned by the Council in a presidential statement (S/PRST/2007/34). The parliament postponed until 23 October its 25 September session at which it was supposed to elect the new president before President Emile Lahoud’s term ends in November. The Council approved a press statement on 27 September calling for free and fair elections to take place (SC/9130).
  • Sierra Leone:  On 19 September, the Council issued a press statement congratulating Sierra Leone on its presidential elections in which Ernest Bai Koromo of the All People’s Congress Party won the run-off over Solomon Berewa of the Sierra Leone People’s Party.  The press statement also encouraged continued international support for Sierra Leone (SC/9121).  
  • Middle East: On 20 September, the Secretariat briefed the Council on the situation in the Middle East, particularly concerning the Palestinian issue (SC/9124).  Deep concern was expressed about the challenging security, humanitarian and economic challenges facing the region. Progress in discussions between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was noted.  
  • Myanmar: On 20 September, Special Advisor Ibrahim Gambari briefed the Council on Myanmar.  He expressed concern with the situation of political detainees in the country and emphasised that the UN, especially in the context of the Secretary-General’s good offices, should continue to work toward a solution to the current unrest by engaging all relevant actors.  After the Myanmar government initiated a crack-down on protestors, the Security Council held an emergency meeting on 26 September during which it supported the Secretary-General’s decision to send Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari to the region. A brief statement was read to the press by the Council president for September, Ambassador Jean-Maurice Ripert of France, urging restraint, especially on the part of the government. 
  • Chad/CAR: On 25 September, the Council unanimously passed resolution 1778, which established the UN Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT) and authorised the deployment of an EU force to collaborate with MINURCAT to protect displaced civilians.  
  • Summit on Africa: On 25 September, the Council held a summit-level meeting on the challenges of attaining peace and security in Africa (S/PV.5749).  The discussion focused on issues such as the crises in Darfur and Somalia, cooperation between the UN and the AU and the problem of child soldiers.  

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